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Spurs vs. Grizzlies ATS Pick for 1/9 (Sports Betting)

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Another Wednesday night means another gripping slate of NBA action. For those looking for entertainment, I suggest watching the Bucks/Rockets game as Giannis vs. Harden is must-watch TV. However, for those looking to have some action, I suggest you look no further than the game being played in Memphis, Tennessee tonight.

Current Form

Spurs
San Antonio comes into tonight’s matchup red-hot riding a five-game winning streak. After a slow start, the Spurs have rebounded by winning 13 of their last 16 contests. Improved chemistry and a return to a simpler defensive scheme have been the cause for San Antonio’s improved play. Demar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge have also shrugged off slow starts and have returned to their All-Star form. Additionally, the emergence of Derrick White and Bryn Forbes has significantly improved the team’s performance. San Antonio will be playing this game on one day’s rest (16-9 record on one day’s rest).

Grizzlies
Conversely, Memphis stumbles into tonight’s game looking to stop the bleeding of a six-game losing streak. The Grizzlies are 5-14 since the beginning of December, as the team’s lack of quality depth has been exposed. Memphis has been overly reliant on their two stars (Gasol and Conley) and have struggled to stay competitive when they are off the court. The Grizzlies early-season point differential indicated that the team was due for a sharp regression. Despite their recent struggles, Memphis remains a prideful and resilient group that has no plans on giving up on the season. Memphis will be playing this game on one day’s rest (9-16 record on one day’s rest).

Edge: Spurs
The Spurs enter this matchup in much better shape. The Spurs are in the midst of their longest winning streak of the season and playing on one day’s rest has suited them well.

Statistical Breakdown

Spurs
While most of the league zigs, the Spurs zag. San Antonio has gone against the grain by predicating their offense around two-point shots and a deliberate pace. With a veteran roster, San Antonio is reliant on executing their offense in the half-court. Subsequently, the Spurs play at the 23rd fastest pace in the league (98.3). The Spurs rank third in the NBA in Points from two-pointers (64.9) and Percent of Points from two-pointers (58%). San Antonio is first in the league in Percent of Points from the Mid-Range (18.7%). DeRozan leads the league in Mid-Range Field Goals Attempted per Game (7.3) and Aldridge isn’t far behind at fourth (6.8).

Grizzlies
Similar to San Antonio, Memphis also plays a contradicting style of basketball. The Grizzlies play at the league’s slowest pace (95.99) and also base their offense around two-point shots (10th in league in Percent of Points from two-pointers). The Grizzlies biggest strength is their defense. The team ranks seventh in the NBA with a 105.9 Defensive Rating. Even at age 31, Mike Conley remains tenacious in defending opposing team’s guards on the perimeter. Conley has especially excelled when matched up against inexperienced guards using his craftiness and veteran savvy to his advantage.

In the interior, Marc Gasol and Jaren Jackson Jr. lead a Memphis defense that ranks second in the league in Opponent Points in the Paint per Game (42.1). While Marc Gasol has a history of being a premier interior defender, Jaren Jackson’s emergence has lifted the Grizzlies’ defense to another level. Jackson has had immense success in both protecting the rim and locking up opposing team’s power forwards in the mid-range. Furthermore, Memphis is sixth in the NBA in Opponent two-point Percentage (50%) and first in the NBA in Opponent Points from two-pointers (50.5%).

Edge: Grizzlies
Memphis has the matchup advantage tonight. The Grizzlies will not be rattled by the Spurs molasses pace as Memphis plays an even slower pace. San Antonio’s ability to manufacture quality two-point shots will be neutralized by the Grizzlies’ elite ability to defend them. Marc Gasol and Jaren Jackson Jr. have the speed, size, and strength to make life difficult for LaMarcus Aldridge. Additionally, Mike Conley will have a clear matchup advantage in facing the Spurs young guards, Derrick White and Bryn Forbes.

Line Analysis

The line for this game opened at -3.5 San Antonio. Despite the Spurs receiving 72% of the spread’s betting action, the line has already shifted down to -2.5 San Antonio. The reverse line movement indicates that the sharp bettors found value in Memphis at 3.5 and have bet it down to 2.5. The Spurs should continue to receive heavy public action throughout the day, as the public fades teams that are on losing streaks. However, the sharps have already seen value in Memphis and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue to back them as the day progresses. Expect the line to finish at -2 San Antonio by tip-off.

Edge: Grizzlies
The Grizzlies’ line contains value with the sharp bettor’s backing and the subsequent reverse line movement.

Verdict

Despite coming into this matchup in opposing directions, the Grizzlies are the side to back tonight. Memphis has the clear matchup advantage when it comes to defending the Spurs biggest strength (making two-point jumpers) and they have the personnel to bother LaMarcus Aldridge. The Grizzlies also have the sharp bettor’s backing and will surely be the more desperate side tonight. Take Memphis +2.5 in a game they could win outright.

Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.