St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

St. John’s 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Three weeks ago, Rick Pitino’s team shot 20% from the field against UConn in Hartford, went the final 17 minutes of the game without a field goal and lost by 32 points. It was one of the worst offensive performances by a ranked team all season. On Saturday night at Madison Square Garden, St. John’s beat the same UConn team by 20. That is the full portrait of St. John’s, and it is also why it’s one of the most fascinating teams in the bracket.

The Red Storm are back-to-back Big East regular-season and tournament champions, something the program had not done since 1999 and 2000. They enter the NCAA Tournament at 28-6, rank 16th in KenPom, have the 12th-ranked defense in the country and a wire-to-wire conference tournament performance that answered every lingering question about whether they could beat an elite team in a big moment. The tourney run was something. St. John’s did not trail in a single one of their three Big East Tournament games.

Zuby Ejiofor is the best player in the conference, and it is not particularly close. He won the Big East Player of the Year Award and the Defensive Player of the Year Award, becoming only the second player in the 46-year history of the conference tournament to score 20+ points in three consecutive games, joining Kemba Walker in 2011. He is an elite interior presence on both ends who changes the defensive picture at the rim and can carry an offense for stretches.

The supporting cast is legitimate. Bryce Hopkins is a double-double threat when he is physically right and played with aggression all week at Madison Square Garden. Dillon Mitchell gives St. John’s another capable forward who can contribute in every phase. Ian Jackson is a sophomore guard who brings shotmaking and off-ball energy that gives Pitino lineup flexibility. Joson Sanon is streaky but is capable of erupting for buckets when the offense needs a lift, while Oziyah Sellers provides ball security in the backcourt.

The concern is the backcourt depth, which has been inconsistent all season, and the February 25th blowout loss against UConn was not a total anomaly. St. John’s has shown the ability to go cold from the perimeter for long stretches, and when that happens against a team built to take away Ejiofor touches, the offense can stall. The Red Storm also struggled in non-conference games, going 7-4 and dropping to 23rd in Bart Torvik’s rankings. But Pitino has this group playing its best basketball of the season at exactly the right time, the defense is elite enough to keep any game close, and a team that just beat the country’s second-best team by 20 points on a neutral floor deserves real respect in the bracket.

Northern Iowa 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Ben Jacobson’s Panthers had to win four games in four days as an MVC Tournament No. 6 seed just to get here, which is unprecedented. Northern Iowa has one of the better defensive profiles in the entire field, regardless of seed line. The Panthers slow teams down, contest everything from three and limit rim attempts at a level that goes well beyond mid-major normal. Trey Campbell and Leon Bond anchor the defense. Both earned MVC All-Defensive Team honors. When all six of its top players were healthy, Northern Iowa’s adjusted defense ranked 15th in the country, per Hoop Explorer. The defense is going to make things tough for any opponent who draws the Panthers.

The caveat is the Panthers’ offense. They are winless against top-100 competition this year and generate almost zero second-chance points or free throws. But Northern Iowa battled Saint Mary's while shorthanded and lost by three to a good Tulsa team on a neutral court. Everything runs through first-shot half-court execution, which makes the Panthers feast-or-famine. The Panthers’ 356th-ranked offensive rebound rate means second-chance opportunities are few and far between.

Getting the full core healthy made a real difference down the stretch, and Northern Iowa has been a different team since everyone was available. In the small sample size of their five-game win streak to clinch an auto-bid, they rank 29th in DI, per Bart Torvik. If the shooters get hot and the defense plays to its ceiling, the Panthers have enough backbone to pull off an upset. But they haven’t beaten a high-quality opponent.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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