Steelers vs. Bengals: NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Steelers vs. Bengals.
NFL Betting Primer: Steelers vs. Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS versus the AFC North in their last 5 matchups. They have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams that held a losing record. They take care of business against bad teams.
The Bengals have a bad offense without Joe Burrow. When he wasn't "healthy" to start the season, the offense struggled. The defense is also a disaster. 28th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. 22nd overall in DVOA.
The Bengals are 1-2 as underdogs this season despite facing the league's most difficult schedule.
We know that the Steelers aren't a great 6-4 team. They have willed their way to wins with defense and turnovers. They've created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Titans and Packers despite being outgained in yardage in "Every Single Game" they have played this season.
But there's hope at the end of the tunnel with the team's decision to move on from ex-offensive coordinator Matt Canada. I think we see a positive output from their offense in a favorable matchup against a run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. They also rank dead last in explosive plays per game on defense.
Every game the Bengals have lost this season they have allowed at least 24 points. They have allowed 17 or more points in 80% of their games. The Steelers have hit the 17-point threshold in 60% of their games played. Plus money to score 17.5 points (+105) in Week 12.
After a 45-game streak of zero games with 400 yards on offense, we could see the Steelers’ offense finally boom against a vulnerable defense.
I love them in this spot to rally offensively, to get them an easy road win. And we already know the defense can take care of business against Jake Browning, who will be making his first NFL start.
As for the total, the trends all point to the under. It's an AFC North game after all.
Seven of the Steelers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. 8-2 under MACHINES overall. Pittsburgh is a printing press of unders.
But as I have alluded to, the Bengals’ defense is in a bad spot. And that's going unnoticed because 3 of their last 5 games have hit the over. Their last four games have all surpassed 41.5 points.
So, although I initially bet the "under" on this game at 35, the offense post-Canada has the makings of massive improvements in a plus matchup. Note the most points scored last year in any of Kenny Pickett's starts (30) came against the Bengals.
So, after further review, like the over at a sluggish at 34.5/34 points and will likely dabble in the Steelers' team total of 17.5 points at plus money.
Could also very well see Ja'Marr Chase get absolutely FED with targets, and his explosive skill set can further drive this toward a potential sneaky over at a suppressed number.
The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 8 different opposing WRs over the last five games. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses versus tight ends, allowing 5.8 catches and 64 receiving yards per game to the position.
Their defense also cannot stop the run as previously mentioned. Take the over on Jaylen Warren's rushing yardage prop. Gone over this number in three straight games.
Warren led the Steelers with an impressive 129 rushing yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, averaging a remarkable 14.3 yards per carry in Week 11. His longest run was a notable 74-yarder, and he caught all 3 passes for 16 yards on 3 targets (12% Target share). Najee Harris contributed just 35 yards on 12 carries. 2 targets. 5 carries in the first half.
Harris saw his snaps bounce back to 57% versus Warren's 45%. But I'd pay less attention to the snaps when Warren would have played MORE had he not been ripping off chunk gains left and right. With the firing of Canada, in favor of the RB coach taking over as the new offensive coordinator, I expect Warren's touches to increase as the team's No. 1 explosive playmaker.
My Picks:
- Steelers -1
- Steelers over 17.5 points
My Props:
- Kenny Pickett over 192.5 passing yards
- Diontae Johnson over 50.5 receiving yards
- Jaylen Warren over 47.5 rushing yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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