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Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers Odds and Game Pick (2021)

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A huge New Year’s Day of college football action concludes with the second playoff semifinal game at the Sugar Bowl. In a rematch of a classic game from last year’s College Football Playoff, undefeated Big Ten champion Ohio State will look to exact revenge against ACC champion Clemson. The Sugar Bowl betting odds have pegged Clemson as a touchdown favorite with a berth in the National Championship Game on the line.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Clemson -7.5; O/U 65.5
  • Current ATS Line: Clemson -7.5
  • Current Over/Under: 66.5
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
  • Date: Friday, Jan. 1, 2021
  • Start Time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Television: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: December 28, 2019 – Clemson defeated Ohio State 29-23 in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale.

Overview

It took a whirlwind of reversed decisions and rule changes on the part of the Big Ten Conference, but Ohio State has returned to the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season as conference champions. Ryan Day’s Buckeyes have only played six games this year due to the Big Ten starting the season late and further virus cancellations from there. Despite the obscurity of it all, there’s no denying the talent Ohio State brings into this Sugar Bowl matchup. Quarterback Justin Fields has the playmaking ability to steal the show every time he steps foot on the field. A thumb injury clearly affected his performance in the Big Ten title game win over Northwestern, but the Buckeyes were able to lean on running back Trey Sermon in a big way to make up the difference.

Clemson has had to battle their own share of virus-related issues over the course of the season, including being without Heisman finalist quarterback Trevor Lawrence for a couple of mid-season games. This included their loss to Notre Dame, a defeat that the Tigers avenged in a big way with a dominant ACC Championship Game victory. What’s more, all of Clemson’s wins this season with Lawrence under center have been decided by two scores or more. Dabo Swinney’s defense is also perhaps the healthiest it has been all year ahead of this Sugar Bowl matchup. Defensive end Xavier Thomas and linebacker Jake Venables were the only two remaining as questionable on the Tigers’ final injury report, and both appear poised to suit up on Friday.

Trends

  1. Ohio State 2020 Betting Trends: 3-3 ATS; 3-2-1 to the Over
  2. Clemson 2020 Betting Trends: 5-6 ATS; 6-5 to the Over
  3. The outright winner has also covered ATS in each of Ohio State’s last 11 bowl games.
  4. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 bowl games.
  5. Since 2000, outright winners are 19-1-1 ATS in the Sugar Bowl.

Line Movement 

*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*

The opening Sugar Bowl point spread of Clemson -7.5 got hit hard with sharp money shortly after posting. The line ballooned to Clemson -9 and would eventually fall back down to the current market consensus of -7.5. With no clear “sharp side” on the game in terms of line movement, it really comes down to a bettor’s own handicap and valuation of the two teams.

Concerning the total, there has been a shift toward the over in the market relative to opening numbers. The line has gradually climbed from the opening 65.5 to the current consensus of 66.5. This is a shade lower than the number’s peak at 67.

Prediction

Other than on-paper talent, I am yet to see anything that would lead me to believe Ohio State is capable of springing any kind of outright upset in this CFP semifinal. Of course, there is last year’s back-and-forth game between the two teams to point to, and it seems reasonable to believe this rematch could be close as well. Did Dabo Swinney perhaps make a psychological warfare mistake when he ranked the Buckeyes 11th in his final Coaches Poll Top 25 rankings? Time will tell. If playing a side, I prefer Clemson, but I don’t love laying a full touchdown. Consider parlaying the Tigers on the moneyline with some other New Year’s Day bowl game favorites.

My best bet for the Sugar Bowl is on the total. I’m of the belief that Clemson’s defense, now fully healthy, will rise to the occasion in a big way in this spot. Given the injuries and inconsistency of Ohio State offensively, I’m hesitant to say the Buckeyes will score at will. We could see a final score similar to last year’s 29-23 game between the teams. While the market consensus has trickled back down from the over/under peak of 67, be sure to shop around for the best value possible. 

Pick: Clemson Moneyline and Under 67 (-275 and -110 respectively at FanDuel)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.