Suns vs. Cavaliers ATS Pick for 2/21 (Sports Betting)
The Cavaliers take on the Suns tonight in what is sure to be one of the most unwatchable yet profitable games of the season.
Current Form
Suns
Phoenix limped into the break on a casual 15-game losing streak. These days, the Suns losing 10 in a row seems like a more natural occurrence than them actually winning a game. Phoenix has played very few games with a full deck of players and has struggled to develop cohesion. However, the Suns will be playing Thursday’s game with a completely healthy roster. Additionally, Phoenix recently addressed their glaring weakness at point guard through the acquisition of Tyler Johnson.
Cavaliers
In an effort to secure a higher draft pick, the Cavaliers have granted the inefficient combo of Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton carte blanche of the offense. The duo’s combination of lackluster defense and steady doses of off-balance jump shots have put the Cavs in a great position to lose every night. Things are about to get uglier with new additions Marquese Chriss and Brandon Knight now in the mix. Yes, you read that right, the same Brandon Knight who hasn’t played a quality NBA game since 2015 will be a key player in the rotation. Kevin Love will be playing, but he remains a shell of himself on a minute’s limit. Tristan Thompson is doubtful to play tonight.
Edge: Suns
The Suns will be eager to capitalize on an ideal opportunity to snap their embarrassing 15-game losing streak against the lowly Cavs. With a healthy roster, the Suns are actually fielding a component NBA team that is much better than what their 11-48 record indicates. Conversely, the Cavaliers have gotten worse and are now giving key minutes to players who shouldn’t even be in the league.
Statistical Breakdown
Suns
The Suns’ offense is shaped to fit the team’s personnel. Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and T.J. Warren all score a majority of their points from two-point range. While Booker and Warren operate in the mid-range and at the rim, Ayton makes his living exclusively in the paint.
Phoenix is fifth in percentage of points from two-pointers (57.2) and 11th in percentage of points from mid-range (10.8). The Suns’ proclivity to score in the paint is evidenced by them ranking sixth in percentage of points in the paint (46.5) and 10th in points in the paint per game (49.3). Ayton has quietly had an impressive rookie season, averaging 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 58.5 percent shooting. Johnson’s ability to throw entry passes combined with Booker’s presence on the perimeter will further improve Ayton’s efficiency.
While the Suns’ offense should see improvement, their defense remains an issue. Phoenix is 29th in defensive rating (113.9) and struggles with fundamentals. The Suns are 27th in opponent three-point percentage (36.7), 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage (54.6), and tied for last in opponent free-throw attempts per game (27.6).
Shockingly, the Suns thrive in forcing turnovers. Phoenix ranks fifth in opponent turnovers per game (15.8) and seventh in opponent turnovers per offensive play (13.6%). These turnovers have enabled the Suns to excel in transition. Phoenix is sixth in points off turnovers per game (18.1) and 11th in fast break points per game (14.7).
Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have a historically bad defense. The 2018-2019 Cleveland Cavaliers currently have the worst defensive rating in NBA History (116.3). They don’t defend three-pointers (29th), they don’t defend two-pointers (30th), and they don’t defend the paint (22nd). Cleveland’s transitional defense isn’t much better, as they rank 23rd in opponent fast break efficiency (1.91).
Collin Sexton and Cedi Osman remain horrific defenders. Sexton and Osman both rank in the bottom three among qualified players in defensive rating (117, 118.4). With both of them receiving 30+ minutes a night, the Cavaliers defense is unlikely to improve.
The Cavaliers’ offense isn’t much better. Cleveland is 26th in offensive rating (105.4) and 29th in points per game (103). As mentioned, the Cavaliers are reliant on Clarkson and Sexton for offensive production. Thus, a majority of the offense is based around inefficient two-point shots. Cleveland ranks eighth in percentage of points from two-pointers (56.1) and fifth percentage of points from mid-range (13.5). The Cavaliers offensive inefficiency is evidenced by their ranking 29th in both true shooting percentage (53.3) and effective field goal percentage (49.6).
Edge: Suns
Without Thompson, the Suns’ will have no issues exploiting the Cavaliers’ interior defense. Booker and Ayton have significant matchup advantages and will score in the paint at will. Phoenix’s inclination to shoot two-pointers will be a tough matchup for the Cavaliers’ defense. The Suns’ run-and-gun style of play will also thrive against the Cavs’ transition defense. Additionally, the Cavaliers are a poor three-point shooting team (25th in threes made per game) and will be unable to take advantage of the Suns’ defense from outside.
Line Analysis
The line for this game opened at -1 Cleveland. Even though 70% of public betting action on the spread has been placed on the Cavs, the line has shifted a whole two points in the opposite direction to -1 Phoenix. This type of reverse line movement indicates that the sharp bettors have found an immense amount of value in the Suns’ line.
Edge: Suns
The sharp bettors have clearly identified value in the Suns’ line. This type of heavy reverse line movement is a rare occurrence and is a ringing endorsement from the sharps.
Verdict: Suns
Desperate to snap their losing streak, the Suns have circled this game on their calendar. A fully healthy Phoenix lineup will be ready to go Thursday night. Booker and Ayton will be too much for a historically bad Cavaliers’ defense, especially inside. The sharp bettors have also heavily sided with the Suns’ line. Take Phoenix -1 as they finally put this skid to rest.
Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.