Super Bowl LIII: First Half + First Quarter Odds and Predictions (Rams vs. Patriots)
The sharps have begun to speak. As is often the case in sports wagering, moving early and following subtle juice movements can clue you in to which way the sharps are leaning. I am a huge supporter of locking in your wagers as soon as possible and with the Super Bowl being the game in question here, this is more important than ever.
Without a huge home base of followers to irrationally pour money on them, the Rams are likely to see a huge movement in the spread against them. Sharps, hardcores and casuals alike are locking in their bets for the Patriots full game causing the lines to already start moving. With that in mind, it became imperative that this information got pushed to our readers today as opposed to in the days leading up to the big game. You will notice I did not include money line totals for the Patriots because the spreads are still less than one point at this time and choosing the money line means you are dropping more juice for no reason.
(First Half -0.5 Patriots; +0.5 Rams, +105 ML)
Playoffs
Pats by 14 vs Chiefs
Pats by 28 vs Chargers
Rams by 13 first half vs ‘Boys
Saints by 3 first half vs Rams
Analyzing the first half data from the playoffs tells us that the Patriots look like the cover for the first half. The Patriots have led by an average of 21 points in the first half of their playoff contests while the Rams have led by five points.
Points For
NE 16.3 first half, 23.3 first half last three (Pats 21.1 at home)
Rams 17.2 first half, 20.3 last three
Based on their season numbers there is little edge in the first quarter line for the Super Bowl. However, the last three contest numbers suggest that the Patriots have a good chance of entering halftime with a lead as they have scored 3.3 more points per game up to that point.
Points Allowed
NE 9.3 first half, 3.3 last threes
Rams 12.0 first half, 10.0 first half last three
The first half spread offers strong value here based on these numbers. The Rams have allowed 3.3 more points per first half and 6.7 more over their last three contests. The Patriots look like a sharp play at this spread.
Prediction: Patriots +0.5
The Patriots look like the smart play for the first quarter spread. They have scored enough points and allow few enough to make this look like one of the easier calls. The Patriots hold the advantage in most of the metrics above making this wager one of the stronger leans of the Super Bowl.
(First Half 28.0 Over/Under)
Playoffs
Pats/Chargers 42 first half
Pats/Chiefs 14 first half
Rams/’Boys 27 first half
Rams/Saints 23 first half
Looking at the playoff data shows us that the Pats and Rams only hit over the 28 total once the entire playoffs. That was against a Chargers team that was absolutely decimated by the Patriots. Based on these numbers alone the under looks like the smart play.
Points For
NE 16.3 first half, 23.3 first half last three (Pats 21.1 at home)
Rams 17.2 first half, 20.3 last three
The points for numbers listed above provide some insight as to why the total jumps from 10.5 for the first quarter all the way to 28 for the first half. The Rams and Patriots have combined for 33.5 points in the first half of contests this season and 43.6 points over each team’s last three contests. The over looks like the astute play when using points for as the metric.
Points Allowed
NE 9.3 first half, 3.3 last threes
Rams 12.0 first half, 10.0 first half last three
When using points allowed as a tool there appears to be a lot of potential value in the under. These two teams have allowed an average of only 21.3 points on the season and a combined total of only 13.3 over their last three contests.
Prediction: Over 28
Taking a stance on this line depends on which metric you give the highest weight to. Using points for as our metric suggests that the over is the smarter play but points allowed tells a different tale. Both of these teams are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard but the fact that they only cleared this total once during the playoffs is concerning.
(First Q -0.5 Patriots; +0.5 Rams, +100 ML)
Playoffs
Pats led by 7 points first Q vs Chargers
Pats led by 7 points first Q vs Chiefs
Rams (-4) first Q vs ‘Boys
Rams (-13) first Q vs Saints
It only takes a moment to glance at these two teams’ playoff stats to determine that the Patriots hold the edge here. This looks like a potential ‘money’ play.
Points For
NE 6.1 points 1st q, 9.3 last three
Rams 6.0 points 1st q, 5.7 last three
Based on their season numbers there is little edge in the first quarter line for the Super Bowl. However, the last three contest numbers suggest that the Patriots have a good chance of entering halftime with a lead as they have scored 3.3 more points per game up to that point.
Points Allowed
NE 4.8 1st q, 3.3 first q last three
Rams 5.8 first q, 7.7 1st q last three
The first half spread offers strong value here based on these numbers. The Rams have allowed 3.3 more points per first half and 6.7 more over their last three contests. The Patriots look like a sharp play at this spread.
Prediction: Patriots (-0.5)
The Patriots look like a lock based on the numbers presented above. The Pats have the advantage based on playoff numbers, points for and points allowed, leaving little doubt that the Patriots first quarter is one of the best values.
First Q 10.5 Over/Under
Playoffs
Pats/Chargers 21 first Q
Pats/Chiefs 7 first Q
Rams/’Boys 10 first Q
Rams/Saints 13 first Q
Looking at the playoff numbers for these two teams offers mixed results. Both teams are 1-1 in terms of surpassing the first quarter total in this game. The average points is 10.125 suggesting that Vegas’ current line presents little edge.
Points For
NE 6.1 points 1st q, 9.3 last three
Rams 6.0 points 1st q, 5.7 last three
The over looks like a solid bet based on these two teams combined first quarter points. They have combined for 12.1 points in first quarters this season and for 15 points over their last three contests.
Points Allowed
NE 4.8 1st q, 3.3 first q last three
Rams 5.8 first q, 7.7 1st q last three
The first quarter points allowed total for the Rams and Patriots is 11.0 over their last three contests and 10.6 on the season. There is minimal edge here as Vegas set their line perfectly. We will have to wait for the inevitable line movement in order to find a potential opportunity to exploit.
Prediction: Over 10.5
Vegas seems to have set this line very well. Points for presents a small edge but points allowed and the two teams’ playoff totals provide little. Both the Rams and Patriots could look to establish the run early mitigating the chance the over is actually hit but the more likely scenario is both teams looking to jump out to an early lead before going into time of possession mode.
Road Spin
If you are of the mind that any neutral site game should be viewed as a home game, even those in the continental United States, than the road totals take on an increased importance. With that in mind, we will take a look at the numbers from that perspective.
Points For
NE 4.4 1st q, 11.6 first half
Rams 4.8 1st q, 14.3 first half
On the season the Patriots have averaged 4.4 points in first quarters and 11.6 points in first halfs. The Rams have averaged 4.8 and 14.3 respectively. Using road numbers the Rams are the play for the spread and the under is the play for the first quarter lines. The Rams are the play based on road numbers for the first half spread and the under looks like the smarter lean.
Points Allowed
NE 7.2 1st q, 13.7 first half
Rams 5.6 1st q, 11.8 first half
Based on the road numbers of these two teams there looks to be value in the under for the first half. The Rams and Patriots have allowed a combined total of 25.5 in road contests this season. The Rams look like the value here based on first half numbers when these two teams play on the road. The Patriots have allowed 1.9 more points in the first half of games on the season, making the Rams looks like the more solid spread play.
The Patriots have allowed 1.6 more points in the first quarters of road games on the season, making the Rams look like the stronger spread play based on this evaluation tool. The points allowed numbers tell us that these two teams have combined for 12.8 points against in road contests this season making the over provide some solid appeal.
Observations
Treating this contest as a road game for both teams provides some interesting insight. The Rams and the under win out based on both points allowed and points for. When coupled with the numbers above the under looks like the smartest play for both of the discussed totals in this contest. Based solely on road numbers, the Rams look like the play for both the 1st quarter spread and the first half spread. In the end, the road numbers made me more confident in the first quarter over but gave me pause considering the first half over and the Patriots first quarter and first half.
Verdict
While I provided my predictions on each wager the ones I feel the most comfortable upping my units on are first quarter and first half Pats. I would also feel comfortable with the over on the totals but at no more than one, or even a half a unit. Going into the research my leans were first quarter and first half Patriots as well as first quarter over. I now feel more confident in the spreads but have found some reasons to rethink putting action on the totals. The live lines may turn out to present more value for the totals, especially if the scoring starts out slow.
All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, follow him @FantasyContext.