Super Bowl LIII Player Prop Bet Predictions (Rams vs. Patriots)
As is often the case, the juice shows you where the money is. We will keep that in mind as we take a look at all of this weekend’s player prop bets and offer predictions on each. Yes. Every. Single. Player Prop.
One thing to bear in mind when placing prop bets leading up to the big game is that ‘suffering’ the juice is a normal part of prop wagering. While we will uncover the odd outlier that offers plus money on a strong lean, the vast majority will require an extra investment to return a full unit. Player prop betting often offers more value than full games which is part of the reason it is often quite a bit harder to find sportsbooks that allow parlays on them. With that said let’s jump right into the mix. We have a lot to cover.
Julian Edelman
Receiving Yards
Over 79.5 receiving yards (-134)
Under 79.5 receiving yards (+115)
This looks like one of the safest Julian Edelman props, and props overall for the Super Bowl. Edelman is averaging 96.5 yards since Josh Gordon left the team and is a strong bet to hit the over in this contest. The juice on the lines suggests that this is the way the early bettors are also leaning, further cementing this as an upside play. This is one of the few props to feel comfortable laying multiple units on.
Total Receptions
Over 6.5 receptions (-174)
Under 6.5 receptions (+148)
The juice has spoken. A cursory glance at the juice on this one tells us all we need to know about the value in this line. Edelman is averaging 6.75 receptions since Gordon left the team, which is why the line sits where it is currently at, but has averaged eight receptions in the playoffs. Edelman will remain heavily involved as long as this game remains competitive, and he should once again be one of Tom Brady’s first reads on third downs. The juice dictates that this line is going to change to 7.0 even before long, so lock this one ASAP.
First reception
Over 9.5 yards (-120)
Under 9.5 yards (+103)
This is a tough prop to gauge. The money is currently coming on the over due to his average yards per reception sitting at 11.5, but average is not what the wager is. As is the case with all of the ‘first’ props we will review, these are little more than 50/50 scenarios that averages only give us a little edge on. To illustrate, consider that Edelman has averaged 14.29 yards per catch since Josh Gordon left the team, but has not gone over 9.5 yards on his first reception in all of those games. While Edelman went for 18 against the Jets and 14 against the Chiefs he was held to seven against the Bills and six against the Chargers. This is not a prop I plan on laying action on at this time, but the over still looks like the safer wager.
Longest reception
Over 21.5 yards (-142)
Under 21.5 yards (+121)
Edelman has surpassed this long reception yardage in exactly half of his contests this season. This trend has held true in the games since Josh Gordon’s departure, as he only cleared this number against the Chargers and Bills. The money is pouring in on the over, making the under look like a potential value here.
Will Julian Edelman score a TD?
Yes (+120)
No (-140)
Edelman has scored a touchdown in two of the four games since Josh Gordon’s departure, but has not scored a touchdown in the playoffs. The juice indicates that the early bettors are well aware of this and are slamming the no for this prop. The no seems like the smarter play here, as Edelman has not found the end zone against a playoff team since playing the Chicago Bears in October.
Will Julian Edelman score a 1st half TD?
Yes (+254)
No (-310)
The juice on this one makes it a tough play but if you are laying just to lay, and have a low risk averseness this could prove to be easy money. Based on the information above, Edelman is a safe bet not to score a touchdown at all in this contest, making the first half only prop all the more appealing. Roll with this prop if you can find a book that allows parlay props or if you have the ‘bank roll’ to take the hit.
Will Julian Edelman have a rush attempt?
Yes (+100)
No (-117)
The juice is on the under here as Edelman has had a rush attempt in only six of his 13 contests (including playoffs). While only seeing a carry in 46.1 percent of his contests make this prop look like one to follow the juice on, Edelman has had a rushing attempt in half of his contests since Josh Gordon went bye bye. This is more of a dart throw type of a prop, and with that and his usage since Gordon left the team in mind, the yes looks like the better value here.
Verdict: Julian Edelman total receiving yards over looks like one of stringer plays of Super Bowl weekend. This is a prop you will want to get in on.
Rob Gronkowski
Total Receiving yards
Over 49.5 yards (-133)
Under 49.5 yards (+114)
Despite the juice indicating that the over is where the early bettors have been laying their action, the under seems like the more prudent bet here. Gronk has only surpassed 49.5 yards once in his last five contests, and that came against the high-octane Kansas City Chiefs who stormed back to make it a contest in the second half of the Patriots conference championship win. The numbers say the under is the value, and at plus money, this is one of the more attractive Gronk props for this weekend.
Total Receptions
Over 3.5 receptions (-136)
Under 3.5 receptions (+116)
Prior to his solid six-reception outing against the Chiefs, Gronk had amassed just five total receptions in his last four game combined. In fact, in the three contests prior to the Chiefs game, Gronk had not even seen more than three targets, combining for an average of two. Gronk will likely be asked to block more than run routes against the Rams intimidating front four, making the under at plus money look like a value.
First reception
Over 11.5 yards (-108)
Under 11.5 yards (-108)
Gronk is averaging 14.5 yards per reception and 4.3 yards after catch on the season. The line has not moved here yet, as first receptions are often lines early bettors stay away from. Based on the averages mentioned the over feels like the safer option here.
Longest reception
Over 20.5 yards (-105)
Under 20.5 yards (-111)
This is a tough prop to gauge. If Gronkowski is involved in the passing game and is not frequently asked to stay home to block, there is a strong chance he manages a long of 21 yards or more. Gronk has surpassed this total in his two playoff contests but failed to record a reception of longer than 17 yards in his five contests prior. If pressed I would opt for the over as Gronk has only failed to top this total against one team that made the playoffs all season.
Will Rob Gronkowski score a TD?
Yes (+171)
No (-203)
With only three touchdowns all season and zero in his last five contests, it is easy to see why the early bettors have moved this line to where it currently stands. Unless you are looking for a dog flier, the no is the bet to take here.
Will Rob Gronkowski Score a first half TD?
Yes (+347)
No (-440)
With it looking unlikely Rob Gronkowski will score at all in this contest, the no is the easy call. Of course with the juice this high and paying out only 44 cents on the dollar, this is a wager better taken if your book accepts prop parlays. Those who are comfortable laying heavy juice may want to give this prop strong consideration.
Verdict: Receiving yards under appears to be the strongest play here with total receptions following closely behind. While these are two of the stronger Gronk plays, they do not rank among the stronger values of the weekend. These are the two to consider if you find yourself angling for a Gronk prop.
Phillip Dorsett
Total Receiving Yards
Over 29.5 yards (+117)
Under 29.5 yards (-137)
Averaging 34.6 yards per game since being inserted back as a starter in three wide sets, the over looks like the play here. Dorsett hit the over in two out of three of those contests and hit 29 against the Chiefs. Dorsett is seeing enough target volume to make the value here rest in the over. The plus money is an added bonus.
Total Receptions
Over 2.5 receptions (+128)
Under 2.5 receptions (-150)
Despite averaging 3.3 receptions per game since Josh Gordon left the team, the under still seems to be the way the early bettors are leaning. Dorsett has seen three or more receptions in two out of those three contests making the over seem like the value here. This is one to shy away from but if pressed I would take the over with optimistic confidence.
First reception
Over 10.5 yards (+100)
Under 10.5 yards (-117)
The under seems like the safer bet here. While Dorsett could burn Marcus Peters deep, it likely will not be on his first reception of the game. The more likely scenario is Dorsett seeing short and intermediate work on his targets early on, before the Pats open it up heading into the second half. Which way you lean here is a matter of personal preference as most ‘first’ totals are.
Longest reception
Over 17.5 yards (+120)
Under 17.5 yards (-140)
Under all day. Phillip Dorsett has surprisingly only seen a long reception over the 17.5 total in three contests all season, with last week’s 29 the first time since way back in September. Eating the juice and taking the under is the prudent play here.
Will Phillip Dorsett score a TD?
Yes (+239)
No (-290)
This is a tough one. The vast majority of TD props have value in the no. With that said Dorsett has scored in three straight, making this a total to target for bettors looking for intriguing dogs with good odds. If working with a comfortable ‘bankroll’ with a lot of units available I would take the over knowing my other plays will cover my loss if it fails to hit.
Verdict: The top two plays here appear to be total receptions and total yardage over. Total yardage is the stronger play if you are looking for no more than one Phillip Dorsett prop.
Chris Hogan
Total Receiving yards
Over 42.5 yards (-108)
Under 42.5 yards (-108)
Hogan has crossed the 42.5 threshold twice in his last three contests but is still not a strong play here. As evidenced by his three-reception, 13-yard outing against the Chargers, Hogan can be held in check by strong corners. With Edelman in the slot against Robey-Coleman and Dorsett lining up against Marcus Peters, Hogan has a matchup to avoid with Aqib Talib. If pressed the under is the play here.
Total receptions
Over 3.5 receptions (+121)
Under 3.5 receptions (-142)
Hogan has averaged 4.3 receptions over his last three contests and has surpassed the total here in two of them. Hogan presents solid value with plus juice, making this the most attractive Hogan prop.
First reception
Over 10.5 yards (-106)
Under 10.5 yards (-110)
As always ‘first’ totals are hard to assess. Hogan has averaged under 10.5 yards per reception in his last three contests, making the under seem like the value here. This is not likely to be a popular play but if you are determined to have a little action everywhere, the under appears to be the safer bet.
Longest reception
Over 19.5 yards (-106)
Under 19.5 yards (-110)
Hogan has recorded a reception of over 19.5 yards in exactly half of his contests played this year. There is little value in taking on this wager, but my lean is toward the under with Hogan only crossing the total barrier in two of his last six outings and three of his last nine.
Will Chris Hogan score a TD?
Yes (+225)
No (-271)
This looks like a strong play for those who are not averse to taking on heavy juice. Hogan has found the end zone only once since September, making the no the undeniable value here. As always there are no sure things in sports wagering, but this looks like a strong option for those who have found books that take parlays.
Will Chris Hogan score a first half TD?
Yes (+467)
No (-625)
The juice has spoken. The line has already moved here as early bettors are taking action on what looks like a very appealing prop. The return on this one is meager, making it a play you want to plug in at parlay books if possible. Those of us who play heavy favorite money lines should also file this prop away for consideration. Take the no if you are so inclined.
Verdict: In terms of odds the over for total receptions appears to be the best value to be had. The no option on the first half TD prop is the most likely to click but that involves contending with the heavy juice.
Cordarelle Patterson
Total Receiving yards
Over 18.5 yards (+116)
Under 18.5 yards (-135)
Total receptions
Over 1.5 (+109)
Under 1.5 (-200)
Taking overs on props of rotational players at best is always risky business. Patterson has seen 11 and 18 snaps in his last two contests making the under look like the play for both of these props. Patterson has averaged one reception and seven yards per game over his last three contests, failing to top the 18.5 total in any of them. There is always a chance Patterson takes one long, but the plus money available on the over is not attractive enough. Under on both totals if pressed.
Brandin Cooks
Total receiving yards
Over 75.5 yards (+110)
Under 75.5 yards (-129)
The under looks like the smart play here. Cooks has averaged just under the total at 75.3 yards per game, and prior to the Chiefs game failed to surpass this total in any of his previous six contests. Slated to line up primarily against a tough corner in J.C. Jackson, Cooks looks like a fade here.
Total receptions
Over 5.5 (+120)
Under 5.5 (-140)
The under total receptions looks to be another strong Brandin Cooks prop. Cooks has seen six or more receptions in just two out of his last seven contests. Set to do battle with the aforementioned J.C. Jackson, who according to PlayerProfiler has held opponents to a 53.4 percent catch rate, the under looks even more appealing.
First reception
Over 12.5 yards (-108)
Under 12.5 yards (-108)
‘First’ receptions as always are a toss up. If pressed I would go with the over here, as Cooks is a receiver who has averaged 15.1 yards per reception and is a receiver who runs his fair share of intermediate and deep routes. Top ten in the league in air yards, Cooks seems to have a solid chance of seeing his first reception go for 13 yards or more.
Longest reception
Over 24.5 yards (-120)
Under 24.5 yards (+103)
The under and the plus money are the value here. Cooks has recorded a reception of 25 yards or more just once in his last six contests. While this is not a prop to target, Cooks’ recent play presents a potential edge to exploit. Roll with the under if so inclined.
Will Brandin Cooks score a TD?
Yes (+161)
No (-190)
Will Brandin Cooks score a first half TD?
Yes (+326)
No (-410)
With only five touchdowns all season and only one against a team that made the playoffs, Cooks appears to be a strong no play on both of the touchdown props. If you are comfortable with the juice or have access to a book that takes prop parlays these are plays to consider including.
Will Brandin Cooks have a rush attempt
Yes (-130)
No (+111)
Cooks is a solid bet to have a rushing attempt in a contest Sean McVay will look to get creative in. Cooks or Woods have seen a rushing attempt in each of the teams last four contests, providing a sliver of value in the yes. This is a prop to wait on as the public may tilt the odds the other way in the days leading up to the big game.
Verdict: Under 5.5 receptions looks like the strongest value for Brandin Cooks props. Cooks has cleared the 5.5 total in just two of his previous seven games making this prop a value play.
Robert Woods
Total receiving yards
Over 72.5 yards (+103)
Under 72.5 yards (-120)
Unlike with Brandin Cooks who saw his total placed just above his season average, Woods’ is just under as he put up 76.2 yards per game. However, digging deeper into his numbers reveals that Woods has seen his play taper off in the second half of the season. Woods has only cleared this total twice in his past eight games, a period in which he has averaged only 61.125 yards per game. The juice suggests the value is on the under here, and in this case, it is correct. The under is the play here based on Woods’ recent performances.
Total receptions
Over 5.5 receptions (-149)
Under 5.5 receptions (+127)
Despite a tougher battle with cornerback Jason McCourty in the slot, Robert Woods is a strong bet to hit the over for this prop. Woods has seen six or more receptions in five out of his last six contests. With the current juice is on this one it is obvious that the oddsmakers and early bettors agree. Lock this one in as soon as possible.
First reception
Over 10.5 yards (-108)
Under 10.5 yards (-108)
Avoid ‘first’ props where possible. I know I do. Woods is averaging 14.2 yards per reception, and five yards after catch per reception, making the over look like a value here. If pressed opt for the over, but as always there is little edge or true value in taking these types of wagers.
Longest reception
Over 22.5 yards (-108)
Under 22.5 yards (-108)
The struggling (by his standards) Robert Woods has recorded a reception of over 22.5 yards only once in his past five contests. Jared Goff has experienced a big drop off in play recently, which plays a correlative factor in making this prop sort of a toss up despite the numbers mentioned above. Woods has recorded a reception over this total in four of eight games against teams that made the playoffs, providing little in the way of an edge by that metric. If pressed, recency bias would make me think the under was the value. But a gameplan perspective dictates Woods will be involved heavily and could get loose for a long gain, with the outside receivers being stifled by Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.
Will Robert Woods score a TD?
Yes (+162)
No (-191)
Will Robert Woods score a first half TD?
Yes (+354)
No (-450)
With only one touchdown in his last six contests, the no is the smart play for both of these props. Woods has not been heavily involved in the red zone for the Rams on the season (12.6 percent target share) making the no provide some appeal here. The juice here is quite high so whether or not to lay some action here depends on your risk averseness and comfort taking on money lines on large favorites.
Total rushing yards for Robert Woods
Over 7.5 yards (+121)
Under 7.5 yards (-142)
With Woods seeing a rushing attempt in each of his last four contests, Vegas gave us an over total instead of a yes/no proposition. As this juice suggests the under is indeed the value here. This is a prop to avoid as the juice on either side provides little appeal.
Verdict: With six or more receptions in five out of his last six contests, the over on total receptions looks like the most intriguing play. Woods is a good bet to lead the Rams in both targets and receptions.
Josh Reynolds
Total Receiving yards
Over 47.5 yards (-111)
Under 47.5 (-105)
Josh Reynolds has cleared this total in three of his last five contests. With that said he is slated to be be lining up against Stephon Gilmore this weekend, giving some cause for trepidation. This is a prop to avoid
Total receptions
Over 3.5 (+106)
Under 3.5 (-124)
This is a tough one. With four or more receptions in three of his last six contests, there appears to be some value here on the surface. Going up against Stephon Gilmore will not do Reynolds any favors, and it does not appear to be a matchup Jared Goff will like to test. The juice has spoken here and it tells us that the under is where the money is currently being placed. Roll with the under if you have your eye on this prop.
First reception
Over 12.5 yards (-108)
Under 12.5 yards (-108)
Josh Reynolds has averaged 13.9 yards per reception on the season, but this prop is asking for the length of his first reception. This is a prop to avoid if possible, but if pressed it comes down to personal preference and, in this instance I prefer the over.
Longest reception
Over 19.5 yards (-118)
Under 19.5 yards (+101)
This is the standout Josh Reynolds prop. Josh Reynolds has cleared this total in four of his last five contests and is a good bet to do so again against the New England Patriots. The over is the play here for those interested in a strong Josh Reynolds prop.
Will Josh Reynolds score a TD?
Yes (+208)
No (-250)
This is one of the lone receiver TD props that actually makes sense to strongly consider the yes on. Reynolds has actually seen more red zone targets than Robert Woods, despite not being a full time player for the majority of the season. He has seen a 20 percent red zone target share and should find himself with a target or two in this area of the field, in what is expected to be a competitive matchup. Goff looks Reynolds way often on his red zone reads leaving little to no value in eating the juice on the no. Take the plus money here.
Will Josh Reynolds score a first half TD?
Yes (+445)
No (-590)
The value here is on the over but at $59 dollars at risk to every $10 won, it makes little sense to get in on this prop. Avoid this prop if possible unless you have a prop parlay option.
Will Josh Reynolds have a rush attempt?
Yes (+120)
No (-140)
The value looks to be on the over here. Reynolds has had a rushing attempt in two straight contests, making eating the no line impalpable. Take the plus money on the over and hope McVay calls Reynolds’ number once again after he took those two carries for 16 and nine yards.
Verdict: Josh Reynolds longest reception appears to be the strongest value play of his props. Reynolds recorded a long reception of over 19.5 yards in four of his five previous contests, and hit 19 on the nose in the fifth. This is the Reynolds prop to roll with.
Tyler Higbee
Total receiving yards
Over 22.5 yards (-116)
Under 22.5 yards (-101)
Total receptions
Over 2 receptions (-130)
Under 2 receptions (+111)
Taking on props for a rotational tight end is not advised, especially if you are a bettor who is more comfortable with overs. Higbee has gone over two receptions only once in his past seven contests, while hitting the push number in three of those contests. There is no value here. Total yardage provides some appeal however, as Higbee has cleared the total in three straight contests. With that said his weekly target volume leaves a lot to be desired, leading these two props to be ones to avoid. If pressed I would roll with the over yardage and under receptions.
First reception
Over 10.5 yards (-101)
Under 10.5 yards (-116)
Longest reception
Over 13.5 yards (-120)
Under 13.5 yards (+103)
Will Tyler Higbee score a TD?
Yes (+372)
No (-476)
As always ‘first’ props are ones to avoid, and that does not change when talking about Tyler Higbee. The longest reception prop provides some potential value here as Higbee has recorded a reception over 13.5 yards in three of his last four contests. With that said he is not involved enough in the offense to truly recommend taking action on any over play this weekend. TD props are always no leans and that holds true here, as prior to his last contest, Higbee had not found the end zone for seven straight outings. The juice on this indicates the unlikeliness Higbee actually scores, thus providing little in the way of value for bettors.
Verdict: The only true lean here is no on the touchdown prop. With odds that present little in the way of return on investment, your funds are likely better put to use elsewhere.
Gerald Everett
Total receiving yards
Over 23.5 yards (-108)
Under 23.5 yards (-108)
Total receptions
Over 2.5 receptions (+121)
Under 2.5 receptions (-141)
Gerald Everett is the more talented receiver of the Rams two tight ends, but he is also the more likely to disappear from a game completely as far as the offensive box score is concerned. Everett has cleared the total yardage in four of his last six contests but saw zero total yards in the other two. As mentioned with Higbee, overs on rotational players are always ones to avoid, so we are for all intents and purposes gauging the unders here. With Everett clearing 23.5 frequently in recent weeks, the over is the only bet, while the 2.5 receptions provides little edge. Set at two, we could at least bank on a push, but with Everett seeing a grand total of two receptions in his last three contests combined the under seems like the only play for that wager.
First reception
Over 8.5 yards (-108)
Under 8.5 yards (-108)
Longest reception
Over 12.5 yards (-108)
Under 12.5 yards (-108)
Will Gerald Everett score a TD?
Yes (+385)
No (-496)
The first reception line provides little edge, even if we are leaning towards the under. Everett, as mentioned above is a player who failed to even record a catch in two out of his last three contests. With that said Everett has cleared the 12.5 total in two out of the last three contests he actually managed to record a reception in. The under appears to be the smarter play here, but comes with more uncertainty than advisable in a day chalk full of much more intriguing options. Everett is an obvious no on the TD prop, but you have to be willing to swallow the juice to get a potential return. Everett has not scored a touchdown in seven games and only found the end zone in two of his eighteen contests
Verdict: Avoid all Everett props if at all possible. If you are determined to take at least one, key in the no on the TD prop, especially if you have access to a book that allows prop parlays.
Tom Brady
What will happen first for Tom Brady?
Throw a TD pass (-342)
Throw an interception (+278)
1st pass of the game will be?
Complete (-250)
Incomplete or interception (+208)
These first two Tom Brady props are silly ones that you just have to look at the juice to see where probability dictates the value is. While Brady may very well throw a pick on Sunday, it will likely not be on his first couple of drives. The juice tells a loud tale, namely that TD pass is the only way to go. As far as the first pass prop, Brady is likely to look for a rhythm pass early and only a Aaron Donald bull rush or a dropped pass will lead to an incompletion. Follow the smart money if you are considering either one of these props.
Passing yards
Over 282.5 yards (-147)
Under 282.5 yards (+126)
This prop looks like an easy over. Averaging 345.5 yards per game in the playoffs Brady seems like a lock to top this total if the game remains the competitive. But therein lies the rub. There is a potential scenario where Jared Goff struggles and the Super Bowl becomes the Sony Michel show. With Vegas pegging the overall game line so close and the total so high however, this line has been set with that perspective in mind. The over on passing yards is the play if you don’t mind taking a hit on the juice.
Completions
Over 25.5 (-138)
Under 25.5 (+118)
While I believe Brady likely hits the over in this contest, the numbers don’t exactly bear that position out. Brady has averaged 32 completions in the playoffs but only threw over 26 completions in four of his sixteen regular season contests. This is a tough one to gauge and comes down to which way you believe the game script will go. I believe the contest will stay competitive until at least the fourth quarter leading me to prefer the over for this prop. This is a preference play and both options should be considered based on how you personally feel the game will play out.
Pass attempts
Over 37.5 (-138)
Under 37.5 (+118)
Brady has averaged 45 completions in the playoffs but only 35.6 in the regular season. This number seems like it was set with the knowledge that the money would likely come in on the over, regardless of where in the band they set the total. Much like with the completions prop, which way to lean depends on how you think the game plays out. If pressed I would opt for the over here.
Interceptions
Over 0.5 (-133)
Under 0.5 (+114)
While Brady threw two picks against the Chiefs, he had not thrown one is his prior two contests. Interestingly, Brady has thrown a pick in half of his contests including the playoffs this season, making this a true toss up just based on the numbers. Facing off against a Rams team that was third in the league in interceptions, despite missing Aqib Talib for the majority of the season, makes the over look like a potential value here.
Longest completion
Over 36.5 yards (-108)
Under 36.5 yards (-108)
This number looks to be a little too high, especially with Josh Gordon no longer on the active roster. Brady had not thrown a completion over 36.5 yards in the playoffs, and hasn’t since Chris Hogan got loose against the Steelers in week fifteen. This seems like an error line that I would feel comfortable upping my units on.
Total TD passes
Over 1.5 (-196)
Under 1.5 (+166)
The last time Tom Brady threw more than one total touchdown against a non AFC East opponent was way back on October 21st against the Chicago Bears. The Patriots are a team that work the short and intermediate levels of the field before pounding the rock in the red zone. The under looks like the smart play here, even if popular opinion may lean towards the over. I expect the Pats to run whenever they can in this contest and it will likely take broken coverage for Brady to pass for two or more touchdowns in this contest.
Will Tom Brady throw a first quarter TD?
Yes (+185)
No (-220)
Second quarter
Yes (-127)
No (+109)
Third quarter
Yes (+124)
No (-145)
Fourth quarter
Yes (-107)
No (-109)
Let’s follow the odds. Based on the lines set, including the games over/under and first half and 1st quarter spreads, Vegas seems to think the Patriots will be scoring on the ground in the first quarter if at all. However, that changes in the second quarter where the early bettors believe Brady has a strong chance of throwing a touchdown pass. The plus money jumps back to no on the third quarter touchdown proposition, while settling in around even for the fourth quarter prop. The second quarter is indeed the best play here if you believe the Patriots are going to win this game. If you believe the Rams will hold a lead or win this game, then the fourth quarter yes is a prop to strongly consider. These props in the end are preference plays that digging into season numbers without game script context fails to provide an edge on. Second quarter yes, is my top prop of these four potential plays.
Will Tom Brady score a TD? (rushing)
Yes (+817)
No (-1317)
The juice has spoken. Vegas is so confident that Brady will not score a rushing touchdown that you can bet $100 and win $817, while charging bettors $1,317 for the right to have the chance to win their money on what looks like a lock of a wager. If you have access to a book that takes parlay props, key this one in.
Tom Brady distance of first TD pass?
Over 10.5 yards (-110)
Under 10.5 yards (-106)
This is not a prop I am very keen on. Skip this one if you can, but the lean here is on the under.
Total rushing yards
Over 1.5 (+128)
Under 1.5 (-150)
Longest rush
Over 2.5 yards (+145)
Under 2.5 yards (-171)
First rush attempt
Over 1.5 yards (-105)
Under 1.5 yards (-111)
Tom Brady is averaging 2.2 rushing yards per game, but has only rushed for two yards or more in two of his last ten contests. First rush attempt under seems like the good bet here, as you should still click even if he does not record a rush attempt. If pressed under on all three of these props is the route I would take.
Tom Brady to have more passing yards in?
1st half (+111)
2nd half + OT (-130)
The smart money here is on the second half, but in all honesty, this one looks like more of a toss up. If the Pats jump out to an early lead they will likely run the ball heavily in the second half. Turnovers could dictate field position making accruing yardage in either half a more difficult process. With too many uncontrollable variables this is more of a preference play based on how you project the game to unfold. Brady always seems to come to life in the second half of contests so my preference here is the second half plus overtime play.
Verdict: Longest completion looks like the top Brady prop and the lone one I would truly feel comfortable getting in on the action on, especially if multiple units are involved.
Jared Goff
What will happen first for Jared Goff?
Throw a TD pass (-291)
Throw an interception (+240)
First pass of the game will be
Complete (-205)
Incomplete or interception (+173)
These are silly props that no one should seriously consider. If you do wish to lay some action on one or both of them, simply take note of the juices to see where Vegas believes the value lies. Jared Goff has thrown only one interception in his last four contests, making the TD pass look like the smarter play of the two. The first pass of the game play is one to avoid, unless you are looking for some quick clearing action to build up your ‘live action’ bankroll. I would chase the plus money and let the chips fall where they may.
Passing yards
Over 285.5 yards (-108)
Under 285.5 yards (-108)
At first glance, this seems like an easy over as Jared Goff has averaged 293.2 yards on the season. With that said Goff has only cleared the posted total once in his past four contests, and averaged 282.9 over the second half of the regular season. The under appears to be the smarter play here, but it is not a wager without some inherent gameflow based risk. Think garbage time. If the Rams fall behind big, Goff is all but certain to hit the over. If they stay competitive throughout, the offense will run through Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson limiting Goff’s passing yardage. Take the under if pressed, otherwise, look elsewhere.
Completions
Over 24.5 (-111)
Under 24.5 (-105)
Jared Goff has only cleared this total once in his last four games, and twice in his last seven. He just barely passed this total with 25 against New Orleans, while seeing 31 against Kansas City. The under is the play here, but is not one to feel entirely comfortable with. Gameflow will dictate where Goff lands this Sunday, so it is advisable to look elsewhere for a better edge.
Pass attempts
Over 38.5 (+107)
Under 38.5 (-125)
Goff has cleared the pass attempt total in five of his last ten contests, making this prop present little value on either side. Like all of the Goff props discussed so far, the outcome is wholly dependent on gameflow and as such, this is a prop worth shying away from. If pressed go with the over if you think the Patriots win this game (as I do), and go with the under if you believe the Rams win.
Interceptions
Over 0.5 receptions (-133)
Under 0.5 receptions (+114)
With only one interception in his past four games, the under appears to be the smarter play here. Take the plus money, and have confidence in the fact that the Rams have been espoused the importance of not turning the ball over in practice all week.
Longest completion
Over 38.5 yards (-108)
Under 38.5 yards (-108)
Goff has recorded a longest completion over this total only once in the past three contests and that was to Gerald Everett. Vegas placed this line well with the expectation that most of the money is likely to come in on the over, regardless of where the number fell within a certain band. The under is the value here, but this is not a prop worth sweating out.
Total TD passes
Over 1.5 (-170)
Under 1.5 (+166)
Goff has only thrown more than one touchdown pass in one of his last seven contests. The under is the clear play here, especially when one considers the plus juice. Roll with the under in what looks like the most intriguing Jared Goff prop of the day.
Will Jared Goff throw a 1st quarter TD?
Yes (+185)
No (-220)
Second quarter
Yes (-108)
No (-108)
Third quarter
Yes (+140)
No (-165)
Fourth quarter
Yes (+115)
No (-134)
Based on these lines it is evident that Vegas has Goff pegged for a second quarter touchdown pass. The Vegas oddsmakers continue to make it tough for bettors to find an edge. Second quarter yes is the play, with fourth quarter yes being second in line. No’s on the first and third cost too much juice to be truly worthy of a play, especially when all the other props available this weekend are taken into account.
Will Jared Goff score a TD? (rushing)
Yes (+563)
No (-790)
This is an obvious no, especially with power backs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson on the roster. The odds on this one leave little room for error if chasing the ‘guaranteed money’, making this prop better used at books that offer prop parlays.
Distance of first TD pass
Over 11.5 yards (-102)
Under 11.5 yards (-114)
It appears the early money is on the under here, and there is no reason to disagree. This is not a prop to target as there are too many variables to account for. If pressed the under is the play.
Total rushing yards
Over 6.5 yards (-140)
Under 6.5 yards (+120)
Longest rush
Over 6.5 yards (-140)
Under 6.5 yards (+120)
First rush attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+103)
Under 3.5 yards (-120)
Goff has gone over the rushing yards and longest rush totals in three of his last five contests. The overs are indeed the smart plays, but these are props one should probably avoid. The under on the rush attempt prop seems like the way to go, as Goff does not have much in terms of escapability. He has propped up his yards per carry average thanks to some longer runs but is regularly held under 3.5 yards on his attempts. Roll with the under if you are determined to have some action on Goff’s rushing props.
Jared Goff to have more passing yards in?
1st half (+111)
2nd half + OT (-130)
While Vegas has Goff pegged to throw a touchdown in the second quarter, they wisely have him projected to throw for more passing yards in the second half. This is a scenario that is likely to hold true unless the Rams jump out to a big lead and start clock killing mode early. Roll with the over if this is a prop you want to get in on.
Verdict: Total TD passes looks like the safest play on any of the Jared Goff props and comes in at plus money. This is the play to roll with if you want some Goff action.
James White
Total rushing yards
Over 17.5 yards (-112)
Under 17.5 yards (-104)
James White has topped the 17.5 total in three of his last four contests, but unfortunately, in the game he failed to, he did not receive a single carry. Third at best on the depth chart when it comes to carries, White is a player that is likely to be audibled into runs more than he sees designed runs. The over is the safer play here, but it is suggested that you take a look at the other James White prop options before settling on this one.
Rushing attempts
Over 3.5 (-114)
Under 3.5 (-102)
James White has topped this total in three of his last four contests and six of his last eight. This seems like one of the safer James White props, even if he will see limited touches as a runner. Over is the play here.
First rushing attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+131)
Under 3.5 yards (-154)
James White is elusive but he is not great on the ground on as a runner, usually relying on a chunk play or two to buoy his week to week average. Under is the smart play here despite having to bear what can be considered to be some serious juice. Follow the early money and take the over here.
Longest rushing attempt
Over 6.5 yards (-105)
Under 6.5 yards (-111)
White has topped this total in six of his last eight contests, making this look like a solid play, especially when the forgiving odds are considered. This looks like a potential money play and should be considered for multiple units.
Receiving yards
Over 44.5 (-166)
Under 44.5 (+141)
While James White has managed to top this total only twice in the last six games, he has cleared in both of his playoff games. White’s involvement in the passing game will likely spike in this contest as the Patriots look to get the ball out of Brady’s hand quickly to contend with a pass rush that consists of Aaron Donald. The over is the play here.
Receptions
Over 4.5 (-195)
Under 4.5 (+165)
This total here is a little high making there appear to be some value in the under. White has failed to see five or more receptions in three of his last four contests. The numbers say there is value in the under, but potential gameflow could see White hit double digits again like he did against the Chargers. The over is the play here if you are comfortable with the juice. The under is one of the smarter dog chaser plays of the day.
First reception
Over 6.5 yards (+103)
Under 6.5 yards (-120)
I am not a fan of first receptions. However, if I had to choose one first reception prop for Super Bowl weekend, this is it. White averages 7.9 yards after catch per reception making this seem like an easy cover.
Longest reception
Over 15.5 yards (-114)
Under 15.5 yards (-102)
White has recorded a reception of over 15.5 yards in each of his last three contests. With that said he failed to do in each of the previous three. While I do not love this prop, if pressed I would side with the over due to projected gameflow.
Will James White score TD?
Yes (+163)
No (-180)
Will James White score a first half TD?
Yes (+312)
No (-390)
James White has not found the end zone against a team that made the playoffs since week one of the regular season. The first half prop obviously presents the better value on the no side, but you have to be willing to deal with the juice.
Verdict: James White boasts a litany of appealing props including rushing attempts, first rushing attempt, longest rushing attempt, first reception, receptions, and receiving yards. Choose what you are most comfortable with or spread your James White action among them all to decrease your exposure. Just be responsible and remember the goal is entertainment.
Rex Burkhead
Total rushing yards
Over 22.5 yards (+107)
Under 22.5 yards (-125)
Burkhead is averaging 23.3 yards on the ground per game since returning from injury. He has surpassed the posted total in three of his last five contests and should be considered a solid value on the over. I am not entirely certain as to why the early money appears to have come in on the under. With that said it is always hard to trust a player who is for all intents and purposes the third back on the depth chart. Burkhead is second in line for carries in theory, but James White will likely see some carries as well, muddying the situation. Stick with the over if you are feeling inclined to have some action on this prop.
Total rushing attempts
Over 4.5 (-120)
Under 4.5 (+103)
Burkhead has had five or more rushing attempts in three of his last four contests, while cracking double digits in two of them. Against a formidable secondary, the Patriots are likely to look to run early and often, giving the over solid value here. This is one of the better Burkhead props of the weekend.
First rushing attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+128)
Under 3.5 yards (-150)
Averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the season, the under is the astute play here. The juice indicates that this is one of the props early bettors found the most value in. In prop land laying (-150) is par for the course. Roll with the under on this one.
Longest rushing attempt
Over 9.5 yards (+119)
Under 9.5 yards (-139)
Burkhead has a longest rushing attempt of ten yards or more in three of his last five contests. Despite this information being available to everyone, Vegas has the under as the favorite for this prop. Against a team that allowed 4.9 yards per carry on the season, Burkhead does have a solid shot of eclipsing this total, but this is a prop better left alone. Take the over if pressed.
Total receiving yards
Over 18.5 yards (+113)
Under 18.5 yards (-132)
Burkhead has only cleared this total twice in his last six contests, making the under the value play here. Eating what can sometimes be heavy juice on props you have more confidence in, is standard with Vegas getting smarter about their lines yearly. Take the under if you are hot after taking some Burkhead receiving yard props.
Total receptions
Over 2.5 (+123)
Under 2.5 (-144)
Rex Burkhead has surpassed this total three times in his last five contests, but that fact does not stop this prop from feeling like nothing more than a crapshoot. Is Burkhead likely to see targets? Yes. Will he see enough to haul in three receptions and click on the over? Or is the under the play as the juice suggests? Avoid unless pressed, in which case take the under.
First reception
Over 6.5 yards (+103)
Under 6.5 yards (-120)
I dislike all first reception totals and this one is no different. Avoid like the plague, but if pressed side with the early bettors and take the under.
Longest reception
Over 8.5 yards (-108)
Under 8.5 yards (-108)
Burkhead has only surpassed this number twice in his last six contests, making the under look like the value play here. This is a prop to avoid unless pressed, in which case the under is the overwhelming value.
Will Rex Burkhead score a TD?
Yes (+195)
No (-233)
Rex Burkhead has a touchdown in each of his last three games, and seems like a good bet to find the end zone once again. Yes is sitting at plus money due to the unpredictability of touchdown scorers, but this feels like a potential solid value, especially at almost two to one. Take the plus money and the over.
Verdict: Total rushing attempts seems like the smartest play here. While Burkhead is a lock to be involved in the offense, anything outside of a handful of carries is just ‘educated’ speculation. With that said first rushing attempt under also seems to present solid value for bettors. Take note.
Sony Michel
Total rushing yards
Over 76.5 yards (-125)
Under 76.5 yards (+107)
At first glance, this looks like an easy over as Sony Michel has averaged 71.6 rushing yards per game. However, that number has spiked to 119.5 in the playoffs and 101.25 over his past four. The juice suggests that early bettors favor the over and that is the lean here as well. Hit the over on this one.
Rushing attempts
Over 17.5 (-114)
Under 17.5 (-102)
Michel has seen 18 or more carries in three of his last four contests. This looks like an easy cover, especially with the Patriots in playoff mode. Michel has racked up 26.5 carries per game in the postseason and should see over 20 in this contest. Lock in the over when you can.
First rushing attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+111)
Under 3.5 yards (-130)
With a true yards per carry of 4.3 yards per attempt, this looks like another appealing Sony Michel prop. While I detest first reception and first pass attempt props, first rushing attempt props offer more value. Take the plus money and the over.
Longest rushing attempt
Over 17.5 yards (-108)
Under 17.5 yards (-108)
Michel has cleared this total only twice in his past seven contests. While Sony Michel is perfectly capable of breaking a run off for over 18 yards, it has only happened in six of his fifteen games played this season. Roll with over here if this is a prop you are looking for action on.
Receiving yards
Over 0.5 (+149)
Under 0.5 (-175)
The juice has spoken. Despite having soft hands Sony Michel has been used as an early down back due to the exceptional skills of James White as a receiver out of the backfield. Michel has recorded a reception in just seven of the fifteen contests he has played in this season. If you don’t mind the juice, the under looks like the smart play here.
Will Sony Michel score a TD?
Yes (-124)
No (+106)
With five touchdowns in his last two games and a trip to the end zone in three of his last four, Michel is the safest bet to find the end zone this weekend. The odds currently do not reflect this leaving a favorable odds opportunity for bettors to exploit. While not one of my top three Sony Michel props of the weekend, it does rank a very close fourth. Double tap the yes if you are considering laying on multiple props.
Will Sony Michel score a first half TD?
Yes (+189)
No (-225)
While Sony Michel does seem more likely to find the end zone in the second half, he has racked up the touchdowns lately and could very well find the end zone in the first half. There are better Sony Michel props to consider but if pressed taking the plus money and the over provides a similar edge at a much better return.
Verdict: The rushing yard total looks like the safest Sony Michel prop for this weekend. Michel has averaged 24 rushing yards per game higher than the total over his last four making the total look like easy money. Rushing attempts jumps out as a close second with first rush attempt rounding out the top three. There are some interesting props here and the Patriots running back props appear to offer more value.
C.J. Anderson
Rushing yards
Over 42.5 (-108)
Under 42.5 (-108)
C.J. Anderson has cleared this total in every game since joining the Rams, making this look like an easy over. But it is not that simple. C.J. Anderson saw 136 less yards than his average as a Ram in his last outing, and may be in danger of seeing his carries fall again with Todd Gurley rearing to go. Gurley is the best running back in the NFL and is likely to get all the work he can handle as the Rams attempt to win the championship. This is a prop to shy away from but the lean is on the under.
Rushing attempts
Over 10.5 (-107)
Under 10.5 (-109)
Eleven attempts. Anderson has been functioning as a feature back since he joined the Rams, but there is a strong likelihood he sees his carries tumble this week in favor of all-pro Todd Gurley. There is too much uncertainty of both sides for there to be any value in this prop. This is a prop to avoid but the lean is on the over.
First rushing attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+101)
Under 3.5 yards (-118)
This prop is a toss up. The over looks like the good play here, but if Gurley gets the start the Rams may tip their hand to the run when Anderson enters the game. This is a prop to avoid. If pressed the over is the lean.
Longest rushing attempt
Over 12.5 yards (-108)
Under 12.5 yards (-108)
This is a prop that is as much about volume as it is his ability to bust a run that clears the total. With too much uncertainty surrounding Anderson’s workload, this is a prop to avoid. Anderson cleared this total in three of his four games as a Ram making the over look like the stronger play.
Receiving yards
Over 4.5 (+122)
Under 4.5 (-143)
With Anderson clearing this total twice in his four games as a member of the Rams, there is no clear the play here. The juice suggests that Vegas and the early bettors are on to the under in this one, making this look like the Anderson line to jump on. Roll with the under if looking for an Anderson prop.
Receptions
Over 0.5 (-106)
Under 0.5 (-110)
Anderson has recorded at least one reception in three of his four games as a Ram and is a solid bet to see some work in the passing game. With that said there is still too much uncertainty with his role to find value on either side of this prop. The under appears to be the slight favorite and is the lean heading into the weekend.
First reception
Over 4.5 yards (+112)
Under 4.5 yards (-131)
With there being doubt as to if Anderson will even record a reception, the under looks like the smart play here. Eat the juice and take the under if you have your heart set on some C.J. Anderson action.
Longest reception
Over 4.5 yards (+117)
Under 4.5 yards (-137)
Anderson sees limited work in the passing game so may have trouble clearing this total. Anderson has seen five or more receiving yards in two of his four games as a Ram but as with most of his props, there is too much role uncertainty to truly find value on either side here. The lean is on the under and the juice suggests this is where the early bettors find value as well.
Will C.J. Anderson score a TD?
Yes (+161)
No (-190)
Will C.J. Anderson score a first half TD?
Yes (+316)
No (-395)
C.J. Anderson has scored a touchdown in three of his four games as a member of the Los Angeles Rams but saw his touchdown streak snapped with Todd Gurley taking on a larger role versus the Saints. With Gurley expected to resume his workhorse role, Anderson will likely have to vulture a red zone touch to find the end zone. The no is the play for both of these props if you are willing to swallow the juice.
Verdict: First reception under looks like the play here. With there being doubt C.J. Anderson will even record a reception, this appears to be the best value play.
Todd Gurley
Rushing yards
Over 68.5 (+122)
Under 68.5 (-143)
Averaging 89.4 rushing yards per game, Todd Gurley looks like an easy over. While Anderson has seen more carries for two straight weeks, the roles are expected to be reversed this weekend making the over look like a value play here. The plus money is a bonus. Jump all over Gurley over as the Rams will likely look to emphasize the ground game in an effort to tire out the Patriots defense and keep Tom Brady off the field.
Rushing attempts
Over 14.5 (+130)
Under 14.5 (-152)
Gurley cleared this total in each of his first eight games of the season, but has only cleared it three times in eight games since. C.J. Anderson was only a factor in two of them however, and Gurley hit the over in one of two. The over and the plus money look the most appealing here, but taking the under due to your personal gameflow projection is just as astute. This is a preference play based on how you see this game playing out, but the under is the lean if you believe the Rams will lose this game, as Gurley has failed to top this total in any of the Rams losses
First rushing attempt
Over 3.5 yards (+103)
Under 3.5 yards (-120)
With a true yards per carry of 4.7 the over looks like the smarter play here. However, Gurley’s 3.4 yards per carry against stacked fronts does not inspire confidence. With the Pats likely to stack the box to open this contest the under looks to have just as much value, making this a difficult prop to assess. With the Patriots giving up 4.3 yards per carry on the season, the over is the lean here.
Longest rushing attempt
Over 20.5 yards (+166)
Under 20.5 yards (-196)
Gurley has cleared this number in four of his last six contests making the current juice look peculiar. Fourth in the league in breakaway runs, Gurley is a good bet to hit the over in this contest. Take the plus money and the over, even if you cut your unit in half.
Receiving yards
Over 32.5 (+124)
Under 32.5 (-145)
This is a tough prop to gauge but the early money is clearly on the under. Gurley has failed to clear even five yards since returning from injury but managed to top in in four of his five game prior. Which way to lean here comes down to which Todd Gurley you expect to see this weekend. The Gurley who was clearly still not 100 percent in his two games since returning, or the Gurley who is arguably the most talented and explosive running back in the NFL. This is a prop to avoid, but my lean is on seeing the old Gurley and the over.
Receptions
Over 3.5 (+121)
Under 3.5 (-141)
Gurley has recorded four or more receptions only once in his past seven games, making the under look like the play here. This is a prop to avoid. An in form Gurley is heavily involved in the passing game but there is no way to be certain he is back to full health. The lean here is on the over but potentially only at a partial unit.
First reception
Over 7.5 yards (+103)
Under 7.5 yards (-120)
The under looks like the play here, and the current odds bear that out. The under is the current betting favorite but presents too much uncertainty for comfort. Avoid this prop if possible, but the under looks like the lean here.
Longest reception
Over 16.5 yards (+128)
Under 16.5 yards (-150)
Todd Gurley has failed to record a reception in four out of his last eleven games. The under looks like the clear play here despite the juice hit you have to be willing to take. This is one of the better Gurley prop plays of the weekend.
Will Todd Gurley score a TD?
Yes (-122)
No (+105)
Todd Gurley has scored a touchdown on the ground or through the air in all but two of his games this season. Gurley has been a touchdown monster all season, and should find his way to the end zone in this one despite the Patriots defense keying on him. The Patriots have given up the fourth most touchdowns on the season adding further appeal to this prop.
Will Todd Gurley score a first half TD?
Yes (+208)
No (-250)
While yes is the betting favorite for whether or not Gurley will find the end zone he is surprisingly plus money for the TD in the first half prop. While there is no definitive lean here if you are intent on spreading your roll among various props, you could find much worse value than the return this prop offers if the yes hits.
Verdict: The top two Todd Gurley props appear to be over on total rushing yards and yes on the score a TD prop. Gurley does not have many favorable props to choose from, so these are the prop plays that deserve the strongest consideration this weekend.
Individual Defensive Players Tackles and Assists
Kyle Van Noy
Over 6.5 (+111)
Under 6.5 (-130)
Kyle Van Noy averaged 5.7 solos and assists during the season making the under look like the play here. The number was likely adjusted upwards due to facing Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, but Van Noy has cleared this total only once in his past eight contests. Plug in the under if the Van Noy prop intrigues.
Devin McCourty
Over 5.5 (+111)
Under 5.5 (-130)
Devin McCourty averaged 5.1 solos and assists on the season. McCourty has only cleared this total five times all season, making the under look like the play here. This is a prop I would rather avoid but the lean is definitely on the under.
Patrick Chung
Over 5.5 (-108)
Under 5.5 (-108)
Patrick Chung has averaged 5.6 solos and assists on the season, making the over look like the play here. Chung has cleared the posted total in three of his last five contests, but is still a little too inconsistent for comfort. The over is the lean here if you are intent on playing this prop.
Trey Flowers
Over 3.5 (-108)
Under 3.5 (-108)
Trey Flowers averaged 3.8 solos and assists on the season, making the over look like a potential play here. Flowers cleared this total in exactly half of his games this season, suggesting that this is a well set line that leaves little value on either side. The over is the lean here but this is a prop to avoid.
Dont’a Hightower
Over 3.5 (+128)
Under 3.5 (-150)
Dont’a Hightower averaged 3.2 solos and assists on the season, making the under look like the initial lean here. Hightower has failed to clear this total in any of his last four contests, leading the under to be the play if you are interested in this prop. However due to the relatively heavy juice, this is a prop to avoid.
Corey Littleton
Over 8.5 (-106)
Under 8.5 (-110)
This prop immediately stood out as a potential value. While Littleton has averaged only 7.7 total tackles on the season, the expectation of the Patriots employing a ground centric attack offers plenty of value for the over. This is one of the top IDP props of the weekend.
Aaron Donald
Over 3.5 (-108)
Under 3.5 (-108)
Aaron Donald has averaged 3.7 solos and assists on the season, making the over the initial lean here. While Donald has cleared this total twice in his last four contests, he has done so only twice in his last six. This is a tough prop to gauge but if pressed the over is the wager to ride with.
John Johnson
Over 7.5 (+117)
Under 7.5 (-137)
There is little in the way of value here based on season averages as John Johnson averaged 7.4 total tackles on the season. Johnson has cleared this total only twice in his past six contests but could be aided by gameflow with Sony Michel toting the rock 26+ times in the playoffs. Over and the plus money is the lean here if you feel inclined to play this prop.
Mark Barron
Over 6.5 (+132)
Under 6.5 (-155)
The juice speaks loudly here as Vegas and the early money are clearly on side with the under being the play here. Barron has averaged just five total tackles on the season, and has cleared this total only three times in fourteen games. Take the hit on the juice and take the under. This looks to be one of the best prop values of the weekend.
Ndamukong Suh
Over 3.5 (-134)
Under 3.5 (+115)
Suh averaged 3.7 total tackles on the season, making the over look like the play here. Suh has cleared this total in seven of his last eight contests, making Suh the value play, and one of the better IDP props of the Super Bowl.
Individual Defensive Player Interceptions
J.C. Jackson
Yes (+482)
No (-650)
Stephon Gilmore
Yes (+512)
No (-700)
Jonathan Jones
Yes (+596)
No (-850)
Jon Johnson III
Yes (+497)
No (-675)
Marcus Peters
Yes (+512)
No (-700)
Aqib Talib
Yes (+512)
No (-700)
Since interceptions are often a fool’s errand to try to accurately predict, we will take a look at these props as a whole. The smart money is on the no for each player, but you have to be willing to take the massive juice hit. This is no different from laying action on any strong betting favorite, but these props are not recommended if you are considering full unit plays, due to the unpredictability of interceptions. The yes options are nice flier plays, but they are indeed just that, fliers. If you are determined to take an interception prop, John Johnson leads all the listed players with four interceptions. Avoid these props and stick to the ones that provide true value.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, follow him @FantasyContext.