Super Bowl LIV: Best Player Prop Bets (2020)
The Super Bowl is essentially sports betting Halloween (because Halloween is obviously the best holiday), and it’s almost here! There is a strong tradition of betting on anything and everything to do with the Super Bowl. While it’s fun to bet on what song J-Lo and Shakira will open the halftime show with, it’s hard to be scientific about that. If we want to be shrewd and actually try to turn a profit, actual football bets are where we have the most sound methodology. For this article I compared every available player prop to the FantasyPros Consensus Projections. While those projections are aimed at fantasy, if we assume they are the expected average outcome for each stat, we can calculate the probability of winning each prop to find the best value.
While over/under bets are designed so that each side has equal odds, the low numbers of certain stats, combined with the fact that all lines are multiples of 0.5, mean that books will give unequal juice. For example, DraftKings has a line of 5.5 receptions for Tyreek Hill, but the under is favored at -155 while the over is the underdog at +124. This imbalance is the source of a lot of our best bets. If we can find bets where our projection is on the underdog side of the line, even by a little, that means we have a >50% chance of winning a bet where we more than double our money by winning.
In each case, I used the best available line across all the books we list here on BettingPros. You can see up-to-date lines with links to each book here.
Find consensus player prop odds ahead of Super Bowl LIV! >>
Darwin Thompson (KC RB) Over 1.5 Rushing Attempts (+124)
- FantasyPros projection: 2.0
- Chance of success: 59.4%
- Expected return: +33%
This is our best player prop, with an expected profit of 1/3 of a unit. With a line this low, we’re essentially betting on whether or not Thompson will play. While he hasn’t been used much in the playoffs so far, Thompson ended the regular season win a string of five consecutive games with four or more rushing attempts. In the unfortunate event of an injury to Damien Williams, Thompson will certainly see more than 2 carries. With the general danger of playing running back in the NFL, that is a distinct possibility. With a projection of 2.0, Thompson has a better than 50% chance of rushing two or more times, and with the over a slight underdog at +124, this is a good bet.
View More Darwin Thompson Prop Bets >>
Deebo Samuel (SF WR) to Score First Touchdown (+1300)
- FantasyPros projection: 0.6
- Chance of success: 9.4%
- Expected return +31%
Without knowing who will win the coin toss, it’s reasonable to assume that each player’s odds to score the first touchdown are proportional to their projection for touchdowns in the game. We can use that assumption to calculate each player’s odds of scoring the first TD, which we can combine with the money lines to get the expected return for each player. Here’s a list of all the players projected for at least 0.1 of a touchdown, and the expected return for betting on that player.
| Player | Line | Projection | Probability | Expected Value |
| Damien Williams | +650 | 0.8 | 12.5% | -6% |
| Raheem Mostert | +700 | 0.9 | 14.1% | +13% |
| Travis Kelce | +750 | 0.7 | 10.9% | -7% |
| Tyreek Hill | +750 | 0.8 | 12.5% | +6% |
| George Kittle | +900 | 0.6 | 9.4% | -6% |
| Deebo Samuel | +1300 | 0.6 | 9.4% | +31% |
| Tevin Coleman | +1500 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -75% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | +1600 | 0.2 | 3.1% | -47% |
| Sammy Watkins | +1800 | 0.3 | 4.7% | -11% |
| Kendrick Bourne | +2000 | 0.2 | 3.1% | -34% |
| 49ers DST | +2100 | 0.2 | 3.1% | -31% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +2200 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -64% |
| Mecole Hardman | +2200 | 0.2 | 3.1% | -28% |
| KC DST | +2400 | 0.2 | 3.1% | -22% |
| Demarcus Robinson | +3100 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -50% |
| Jeff Wilson | +3500 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -44% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | +4500 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -28% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +5000 | 0.1 | 1.6% | -20% |
| Blake Bell | +7500 | 0.1 | 1.6% | +19% |
Deebo Samuel (SF WR) to score Last Touchdown (+1300)
This is essentially the same bet as the last one, because we don’t know anything about the flow of the game yet. This is evidenced by the fact that the lines are basically the same. There’s no real reason to bet one over the other, but if you want to get crazy you can parlay them together at +19500. Your chance of winning is only about 0.88%, but with a return of almost 200x, your expected value is actually about +70% of your bet.
More Deebo Samuel Prop Bets >>
Emmanuel Sanders (SF WR) Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)
- FantasyPros projection: 4.0.
- Chance of Success: 56.7%.
- Expected return: +30%.
Like with our bet on Darwin Thompson over 1.5 rushes, this is a case where our FantasyPros projection is on the underdog side of the line. Our projection of 4.0 for Sanders is above the line of 3.5, and the over is the underdog. Because there are no massive discrepancies between the lines and our projections, this is the pattern for all our top player over/unders.
More Emmanuel Sanders Prop Bets >>
George Kittle (SF TE) Under 5.5 Receptions (+134)
- FantasyPros projection: 5.4.
- Chance of success: 54.6%.
- Expected return: +28%.
In addition to the projection math working out, recent performance is in our favor. Kittle has had only four receptions on six targets in two playoff games, so to catch six passes would more than double his recent per-game workload.
More George Kittle Prop Bets >>
Deebo Samuel (SF WR) Over 4.5 Receptions (+122)
- FantasyPros projection: 5.0.
- Chance of success: 56.0%.
- Expected return: ‘+24%.
Hey look, it’s Deebo Samuel again. Five receptions would certainly be an above average game for him, but our projections like the prospects for Samuel’s usage, so a +122 line makes this attractive. I like the idea of betting the over on both Samuel and Sanders. It’s not easy to calculate the odds exactly, but it’s likely that at least one of them will hit the over. With positive lines for both, you’ll make money even if only one of them hits.
More Deebo Samuel Prop Bets >>
Tails on the Coin Toss (-102)
Everybody knows that tails never fails, and with an incredible line of -102, the expected value of this bet is +98%. In fact, even if they somehow have a defective coin that only lands on tails 51% of the time, this bet is still profitable. And come on, how often do you get to put real money on a literal coin flip?
Check out our consensus game prop odds for Super Bowl LIV! >>