Super Bowl LIV Futures (2020): 8 Takeaways from the Odds
The BettingPros staff published our favorite value bets amongst the early openers of NFL futures two weeks ago. Today, we’ll examine some of the takeaways from those numbers. What stories are the future odds telling us?
First, here’s a look at the odds:
| Team | Odds |
| New England | +650 |
| LA Rams | +700 |
| Kansas City | +800 |
| LA Chargers | +800 |
| New Orleans | +1,000 |
| Indianapolis | +1,100 |
| Chicago | +1,200 |
| Pittsburgh | +1,600 |
| Green Bay | +1,800 |
| Philadelphia | +1,800 |
| Dallas | +2,000 |
| Minnesota | +2,000 |
| Baltimore | +2,800 |
| Atlanta | +3,000 |
| Cleveland | +3,000 |
| Houston | +3,500 |
| Seattle | +3,500 |
| San Francisco | +4,000 |
| Carolina | +5,000 |
| Jacksonville | +5,000 |
| NY Giants | +5,000 |
| Tennessee | +6,000 |
| Tampa Bay | +6,500 |
| Denver | +7,500 |
| Arizona | +10,000 |
| Buffalo | +10,000 |
| Detroit | +10,000 |
| Cincinnati | +12,500 |
| NY Jets | +12,500 |
| Oakland | +12,500 |
| Washington | +15,000 |
| Miami | +25,000 |
1) If you read my AFC West Season Win Totals piece, you’ll notice a theme. The battle for the AFC West will be a fun one to watch, and will go a long way toward determining the playoff picture with the Chiefs and Chargers both at +800 odds.
2) The market sees a huge difference between AFC South foes, Indianapolis and Houston. Indianapolis is +1100 (just behind the Saints, who are at +1000), and the rival Texans are in the distance at +3500.
3) The oddsmakers and bettors clearly believe in Matt Nagy and the Chicago Bears (+1200). There isn’t much distance between the Bears and their two functioning rivals, the Packers (+1800) and the Vikings (+2000). Sorry Detroit (+10000). Maybe you can inquire about joining the Alliance of American Football (AAF)?
4) Despite all of the drama, the market has the Steelers head and shoulders above their AFC North rivals, at +1600. In my AFC North preview, I came to the same conclusion. In the staff article listing our favorites, I liked Pittsburgh’s value above all others in the market as well. The Ravens come in nearest to the Steelers at +2800, and the Browns are right behind at +3000. The Bengals? Maybe they should get on a conference call with the Lions and the AAF? Obviously, an even number of teams would make it easier to expand. At +12500, it’s not like they’re going to compete for anything in the NFL.
5) The early odds see the Seahawks (+3500) much closer to San Francisco (+4000) than to the Rams (+700). How many more years of Russell Wilson’s prime will be wasted in an antiquated, sub-optimal approach?
6) The market seems to be hedging on Cam Newton’s health. The Panthers are currently +5000 with the Jaguars and Giants at 19th highest odds to win. True odds with 16 games without Cam Newton are probably +10000 or worse. The number for a healthy Cam Newton is probably somewhere in the low +2000s near the Cowboys and Vikings. The current number of +5000 seems like a pure hedge.
7) I noted in my AFC South Season Win Totals piece, that the South forecasted to be the most competitive division in the NFL. The future odds agree with that sentiment, as only +4900 separates the favorite Colts (+1100) from the longshot Titans (+6000), with the Texans (+3500) and Jaguars (+5000) in between.
8) Adam Gase might be able to see magic tacos, but the market views the head coach as pretty valuable, making his old team the Dolphins as twice the longshot (+25000 to +12500) as his new team, the Jets.
What stood out to you in these odds? Let me know at on Twitter!
Jared Still in a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @jaredstill.