Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick

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The NFL’s 100th season will come to an end Sunday evening in Miami, FL when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in what bookmakers indicate will be an extremely competitive matchup. Before the action gets underway, Demi Lovato will kick us off with her rendition of the national anthem, while Jennifer Lopez and Shakira will perform the halftime show, with no shortage of props available for both performances. The zebras will be led by veteran referee Bill Vinovich who will be making his second appearance as the referee of a Super Bowl, making his first at Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona. While prop bets will likely dominate the day, let’s take a closer look at the game itself to identify where we can find an edge.

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Details

• Current Line: Kansas City -1.5
• Over/Under: 54.5 (via PointsBet)
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
• Start Time: 6:30 PM EST
• Last Meeting: September 23rd, 2018 — Chiefs def. 49ers 38-27 in Kansas City

Overview

For the Chiefs, the franchise is making its third appearance in the Super Bowl and their first since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Led by head coach Andy Ried, who is making his second Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs have now won four straight AFC West titles and have made the playoffs six times in seven seasons under Reid. Things took a dramatic upward turn for this Chiefs team in 2017, however, when they drafted a kid out of Texas Tech by the name of Patrick Mahomes. One season later, Mahomes would win the NFL MVP award after throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns while leading the Chiefs to a 12-4 record and finishing the campaign one game away from the Super Bowl. With frankly even less talent around him this season, Mahomes led the Chiefs to another 12-4 season despite missing two games with a dislocated patella. While Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Tyreke Hill are Mahomes’ best options when spreading the field and going deep, tight end Travis Kelce is this offense’s workhorse. Raking in 97 passes for 1,229 yards and five touchdowns this season, Kelce became the first tight end in NFL history to record four straight 1,000-yard seasons. While the Chiefs’ defense has been adequate, ranking seventh in the league allowing 19.3 points per game, their offense must get going if they have a chance in this one.

On the other side of the field, the 49ers are looking to win their sixth Super Bowl title, which would put them in a three-way tie with the Patriots and Steelers for the most Super Bowl championships in league history. Another piece of history in San Francisco has already been made, as head coach Kyle Shanahan and his father Mike Shanahan are the first father-son combo to lead their team to a Super Bowl as head coaches. For the younger Shanahan, the turnaround in The Bay has been ahead of schedule, taking a team that was just 4-12 a season ago to the glory land in just his third season at the helm. Like most successful franchises in the NFL, the team boasts one of the best defenses in the league, ranking second this season in points allowed (19.4) and yards allowed (252.2) and first in passing yards allowed per game (169.2). On the other side of the ball, the long-awaited return of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from ACL surgery has turned out to be well worth it as his 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns guided this offense to the No. 1 seed in the NFC in just his first full season running it.

Bottom Line

After opening up as low as 52.5 in some locations, I’ve seen this total get as high as 55, which I think is too high given the matchup and circumstances. Looking back over the past six Super Bowls, only two have eclipsed 52 and almost none have featured the caliber of defense that the 49ers bring into this game. If the 49ers are able to get on the board early, I expect defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to let it rip and go after Mahomes on nearly every snap. You might be able to grab a 55 by the time this game kicks off, but I feel just as comfortable taking 54.5 in what I expect to be a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 54.5

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