Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Prop Guide
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It is officially Super Bowl week as the 54th rendition of the game is scheduled to get underway Sunday evening at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL. Slowly becoming more popular than betting on the game itself, prop bets have entered the national conversation as a fun, and for those who pay attention, profitable way to get down action on the big game. Unlike regular-season games where you can mainly just bet on things like over or under specific player stats, the Super Bowl offers hundreds of options for bettors. Everything from the color of the Gatorade poured on the winning head coach to the length of the National Anthem is available on the betting menu this week. Let’s take a look at some of the props I’ve identified over at FanDuel where I think the oddsmakers are off.
Bet $1, Win $200 if a Touchdown is Scored in Super Bowl LIV
Game Tied Again After 1st Score
The definition of this prop is after the starting score of 0-0, will the game be tied again at any point before the final whistle. In most locations brave enough to post the line of this game early last Sunday, it was originally a pick-em, meaning bookmakers see this game as equal in nearly all aspects. Immediately the bets from professionals came in on Kansas City, pushing this line up to where it sits now at -1.5, but the fact that it hasn’t hit two means there’s equal buy-in from other professionals on San Francisco that kept this line steady at 1.5. If even the professionals are split, I’ll put my money on this game hovering around a tie throughout.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Projected as the most likely to win Super Bowl LIV MVP, Mahomes has to have a huge game, in my opinion, to give this Chiefs team a chance. One year removed from winning NFL MVP, Mahomes is still for the most part this entire offense and his play is the reason they are here in the first place. On their run through the AFC playoffs knocking off both Houston and Tennesee with come from behind wins, Mahomes had exactly 53 rushing yards in each. While he’s facing a much more lethal defense here against the 49ers, the fact remains they will go after him early and often and this total implies he needs to break off just two 2-3 mid-size runs to eclipse 30 yards.
Who Will Catch a Pass First: George Kittle vs. Travis Kelce
While George Kittle is no doubt critical to the 49er’s success, Kelce is far and away Mahomes’ favorite target. With another monster regular season this year, Kelce became the first tight end in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season. In the Chief’s comeback win against the Texans in their divisional-round game just a few weeks ago, he reeled in 10 receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns. When things get hectic, Mahomes looks for Kelce and I expect the same early dose of the tight end Sunday evening.
Last Play of Game to be a QB Kneel
In a back and forth game like the one that’s expected Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV, this to me is a bit of an overreaction with how short these odds are. The idea that the team possessing the ball on the last play will be doing so with the game on the line seems like a bit of a bigger stretch than -150, and if the game is within six points of where it sits now, that’s exactly the implication.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.