Navigate

Super Bowl LIV Matchup Preview

by |

The Super Bowl LIV matchup is set as the No. 1 seed from the NFC will take on the No. 2 seed from the AFC. As the San Francisco 49ers prepare for their showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs in Miami, we’re taking an early look at the matchup. Here’s how the teams got here and here’s how they matchup:

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>

How They Got Here: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers entered the year with Super Bowl odds of about 45/1. As you might recall, they had the No. 2 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, so they weren’t a very good team last year. However, much of that was due to the injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and many people felt that if things go their way, they could be a great turnaround story. That’s exactly what happened as everything came together for them on both sides of the ball and they ended up being the last undefeated team in the NFL.

The 49ers did have a number of close calls down the stretch but they still hung on for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That’s proved to be valuable as they’ve played two crisp, clean games at home to win the NFC and get to the Super Bowl.

Rankings

  • Passing Offense: 13th
  • Rushing Offense: 2nd
  • Passing Defense: 1st
  • Rushing Defense: 17th

How They Got Here: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs entered the season as one of the Super Bowl favorites but as the early part of the season played out, they faded. Surprising back-to-back losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans in Week 5 and 6 (which came on the heels of a narrow win at Detroit) dropped the Chiefs to just 4-2. The team was just 6-4 after 10 games as the Patrick Mahomes injury had a big impact on their season.

However, the Chiefs rallied to win their final six games, lucked into the No. 2 seed when the New England Patriots choked at home in Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins and then benefited from the Baltimore Ravens stunning loss to the Tennessee Titans. They then dug themselves out of double-digit holes in their two playoff wins and ended up winning the AFC.

Rankings

  • Passing Offense: 5th
  • Rushing Offense: 23rd
  • Passing Defense: 8th
  • Rushing Defense: 26th

How The 49ers Can Win
Their path is quite simple: take a look at what the Texans and Titans did to get the Chiefs into an early hole and replicate it. A big issue for the Chiefs is the fact that their run defense gives up 4.9 yards-per-carry, which is the fourth-worst number in the NFL. The 49ers probably won’t lose this game if they’re able to run the ball and approach those kinds of numbers.

As for the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have an explosive passing game but the 49ers finished the regular season with the No. 1 passing defense. Opponents completed just 61.3% of their passes against the 49ers (seventh-best in the NFL) and they allowed a league-low 5.9 yards-per-attempt. If they can contain the Chiefs passing game – or at least slow it down – and run the ball effectively on offense, they’ll win.

How The Chiefs Can Win
For the Chiefs, it’s the Patrick Mahomes show. Kansas City has mostly abandoned running the ball in the playoffs as Mahomes was their leading rusher in both games. The key to his success in the Super Bowl will be just how well can the Chiefs protect him? He was sacked twice by the Titans but for the most part, he had a clean pocket when he needed to. As for the Texans, they weren’t able to sack Mahomes even once. While we know that the 49ers have a pretty good defense, their zone schemes are likely to get picked apart by Mahomes if he has all day to throw and make his decisions. That could be a possibility as the Chiefs finished the year giving up just 25 sacks, which was the third-best number in the NFL.

As for the Chiefs defense, they’re a weak link but taking a closer look at their recent performances, they’ve done just enough to help the Chiefs win games. While it’s true that they rank 17th in the NFL in total yards allowed, they’re actually seventh in points per game allowed (19.3), which is one rank higher than the 49ers in that category. They might bend a lot but if they don’t break in the red zone, the Chiefs will have a much better chance of winning this game.

Find all of our articles on sports betting strategy tips & advice >>

Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.