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Super Bowl LIV San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

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Super Bowl LIV is just mere hours away. With the big game rapidly approaching, NFL fans and bettors of all interest levels are digging into these two evenly matched teams trying to find an edge. The San Francisco 49ers have the edge on defense and special teams, but the Kansas City Chiefs offense is truly electrifying. We will discuss the Super Bowl from a full game betting perspective, but do not forget about live lines when the actual game is underway. Trends are much less helpful when discussing the NFC Champions versus the AFC Champions, and this is even truer when the game is played at a neutral site. The consensus point spread for this contest currently sits at -1.5, and if it closes at less than two points it will mark just the fifth time in history that the spread has closed at less than -2. The age-old adage states that defense wins championships, the question is, will it win this one? Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1 on the Kansas City Chiefs. The consensus over/under total opened at 53 points. The point spread has held climbed to -1.5. The over/under total has climbed to 54.5.
  • Current Line: Kansas City -1.5
  • O/U: 54.5
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Start Time: 6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 2nd
  • Last Meeting: Kansas City defeated San Francisco 38-27 — September 23, 2018

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Overview 

The San Francisco 49ers have had a terrific season, and are now just one win away from becoming Super Bowl Champions. San Francisco stands out on both offense and defense, but the defensive side of the ball is where they truly shine. Defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa has been so good that Jimmy Garoppolo opined that had he not got injured that the team would never have a chance to draft the star defensive end. His addition alongside offseason free-agent addition Dee Ford turned an already strong defensive line into one of the best front fours in all of football. The wide receiver corps has seen a complete makeover as 2019 second-round pick Deebo Samuel and in-season trade acquisition Emmanuel Sanders are starting at wideouts. Facing the Chiefs explosive offense and underrated defense will be one of the 49ers’ toughest tests to date. San Francisco will need to limit wasted possessions, control the time of possession, and get some early defensive stops. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have finally made it to the promised land. Guided by one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are one win away from becoming immortalized as Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs high powered offense somewhat deservedly get all of the hype, but the 2019-20 version of the Chiefs defense is drastically improved from the unit we saw last season. Kansas City overhauled their entire defense starting with the impact additions of all-pro level safety Tyrann Matthieu and impressive (but now injured) rookie safety Juan Thornhill. They added Bashaud Breeland at cornerback to help solidify their number two corner spot, a move that coupled with their safety additions turned their weak 2018-19 secondary into a 2019-20 strength. They made numerous investments on their defensive front most notably trading for Frank Clark from Seattle. They also added Emmanuel Ogbah and Alex Okafor to help as edge rushers, but with both landing on injured reserve, the Chiefs successfully put in a waiver claim for future Hall of Famer Terrell Suggs. While it is possible that the Chiefs defense steps up and wins the game for the Chiefs, the more likely scenario is that the Chiefs are going to need to step on the 49ers’ throat offensively in order to win this game. 

Trends

  • The favorite is 26-25-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.
  • Over is 26-25-1 in the Super Bowl.
  • San Francisco is 11-6-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Kansas City is 12-5-1 ATS on the season.
  • San Francisco is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records. 
  • San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests as underdog. 
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following a win. 
  • Kansas City is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • Kansas City is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight contests. 
  • Kansas City is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven contests as a favorite. 
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in San Francisco’s last six contests.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 7-2 in Kansas City’s last nine contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 3-0 in Kansas City’s last three contests.  

Prop Bets 

Kansas City Chiefs second quarter moneyline including tie (+100)
The spread for this line currently sits at zero points at -116. The moneyline which is offering the exact same thing sits at -114. However, if you are willing to eschew the push possibility you can get the three-way moneyline at +100 at FanDuel. The Chiefs have been the number one scoring offense in the second quarter this season, which is why the juice for the spread and two-way moneyline are currently where they are. The Chiefs are number one in the NFL with 12.2 points per second quarter. The 49ers were also very good in the second quarter at 9.0 points per which placed them fifth in the league. To put the point gap in context, the 3.2 point discrepancy between the Chiefs at 12.2 and the 49ers at 9.0, is the same difference as the 49ers have from the 25th place Detroit Lions at 5.8. The 49ers fall to 7.2 on the road, the Chiefs sit at 12.1. Lock this in at FanDuel before the rising juice on the Chiefs for the spread and the two-way moneyline allows them to charge juice for this one.

George Kittle over 5.5 receptions (-172)
Player prop bettors, especially the early ones, really know their stuff. Even though Kittle has failed to clear this total in any of his playoff contests this season, averaging just two receptions per game, the juice on this prop is an insane but still attractive -172. Kittle has gone over 5.5 receptions in 10 of his 16 contests this season, and in three of his six contests against teams that made the playoffs. His average against playoff teams was dragged down by his performances against the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers (when he was not needed), sitting at 4.16 per contest. The rest of his averages all suggest that the over is indeed the smart play. He averaged 6.07 receptions per game on the season and 5.375 receptions per game on the road. He averaged 7.5 receptions per game in losses, and 5.83 per game in contests the 49ers won. Kittle was better in the second half of the season, averaging 6.5 receptions per game. The juice is not pretty, but with this being a cash-out day for NFL only bettors, eating the juice to get action on a prop with this high of a win probability is strongly recommended. Lock this one in as soon as possible, as the juice is only going to continue to rise. For more insight on the top prop plays for this weekend, look out for our articles over the next couple of days.

Bottom Line 

In all likelihood, the San Francisco 49ers are going to have to outscore the Chiefs in a high scoring affair in order to win this contest. The majority of the spread action for this contest has come in on the Kansas City Chiefs, but with the spread sitting at just -1.5, the action split is a little misleading. 49ers bettors are in large part just betting the moneyline, with 71 percent of the moneyline action coming in on the team from the Bay Area. 

Defense wins championships, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the Chiefs underrated defense will finally rake in some accolades with their Super Bowl LIV performance. While the 49ers offense is a talented one, they are overwhelmingly built around George Kittle and the running game. If the 49ers fall behind by more than one score, fans and bettors alike will begin pushing the panic button. If the Chiefs fall behind by more than one score, bettors will take to the live betting window to lock in the Chiefs at more favorable numbers and odds. 

The trends offer little help for this contest due to this being a neutral site matchup between two of the very best teams in the NFL. Runs to the Super Bowl are often accompanied by a strong stretch run that will make recent trends suggest that both teams are smart plays. This year’s contest pits two relatively evenly matched squads up against each other for the first time in recent memory. For proof of this, we need to look no further than the current consensus point spread of -1.5. There have been only two occasions in the last 38 years that the closing point spread for the big game was less than two points. 2015 in Super Bowl XLVIII between Seattle and Denver, and 1982 in Super Bowl XVI between San Francisco and Cincinnati. 

Patrick Mahomes has looked borderline unstoppable over the last several weeks, and Andy Reid is smart enough to scheme with the 49ers deadly pass rush in mind. If the 49ers win this game, it is likely going to be due to the 49ers breaking up passes and forcing drops from what is an average group at best behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Sammy Watkins is too inconsistent to trust, but could play the role of X-factor in this contest. With the spread for this contest being negligible, where we place our action ultimately comes down to which team one thinks will win straight up. The 49ers could have very well opened as favorites for this contest, but the Chiefs have been in better form recently, and appear to be the sharper play. Lock the Chiefs in at -1.5 at FanDuel before large scale casual action potentially moves the number north of two points.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.