Super Bowl LIV Squares Strategy (2020)
Although the Super Bowl is just one game, there are so many ways to bet on the game. From the regular spread, moneyline, and total, to the vast array of props and contests like Super Bowl Squares, there are lots of ways to put money on the game. If you’re planning on playing Super Bowl Squares, we’ve got a quick rundown for you to show you what the optimal strategy is:
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How The Game Works
If you’ve never played Super Bowl Squares, the game is quite simple: what you’re looking to do is predict what the last digit of the score will be for the two teams after each quarter. How it works is you’ll have a 10-by-10 grid available to all players where they can select the numbers from 0-9 for both teams. For example, if you have 7-3, that means that scores like 7-3, 17-13, or 27-23 would allow you to win the box — if that’s the score at the end of a given quarter.
The trick is all in how the numbers are selected. In some of these games, the spots are picked at random. In other games, you have to buy the squares, and they’re weighted (the more appealing squares will cost more money, and you have to work with a budget), and other times, there’s a random draft order, and you buy the squares one by one until they’re all bought up.
Not all squares are equal, so let’s take a closer look at the best numbers to get — if you have the option of buying.
Optimal Strategy: Go For 7’s For Favorites And 0’s For Underdog
If you’re playing the basic 10 by 10 grid, history shows that your best bet is to go with seven for the favorite and zero for the underdog. Harvard did a study on this game using NFL playoff data from 1980 to 2012. They actually tracked the score at the end of each quarter, weighted the frequency according to the quarter-by-quarter payouts, and then divided by the number of games. The results showed that your optimal strategy is to use seven for the favorite and zero for the underdog. In this case, they assumed that the squares cost the same.
Overall, there are actually only 24 squares that yielded a profit in their study, and the order of the top five was:
- Favorite 7, Underdog 0
- Favorite 0, Underdog 0
- Favorite 7, Underdog 7
- Favorite 7, Underdog 3
- Favorite 3, Underdog 3
To no one’s surprise, we see a lot of key numbers here, as threes and sevens are quite important in the NFL (a touchdown is worth seven points while a field goal is worth three).
There are a number of boxes that you want to avoid, and those mostly involve the permutations of twos, fives, nines, and eights.
If It’s Random Selection, You’re Out Of Luck
Of course, some people play this game by drawing numbers out of a hat or by assigning the squares at random. If that’s the version that you’re playing, there’s really no strategy to it. The column digit assignments will be done at random; they won’t be at your selection. That means there is no possible strategy for you to improve your chances of winning.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.