Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds & Trends History: Eagles vs. Chiefs (2025)
Super Bowl LIX at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs will do battle on Sunday, February 9th at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
We get the same matchup we had in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona when the Chiefs outlasted the Eagles 38-35 in a wild title game in the desert. In that game, the Eagles closed as a 2-point favorite and the total was 50, which was never an issue.
I’ve been watching the Super Bowl religiously since Super Bowl XV in New Orleans, a game that featured the Eagles against the then-Oakland Raiders. I have been betting on the Super Bowl since roughly the late 1990s. My best gambling memory came on January 31st, 1999, during Super Bowl XXXIII. On the final play of the third quarter between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons, fullback Howard Griffith was tackled at the 1-yard line by linebacker Jessie Tuggle.
My buddy and I, who called a nice Italian man in South Florida to take our action, immediately jumped up at the commercial break and bet Denver -0.5 points on the fourth-quarter line, as he was the old-school DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook, for you new-school bettors out there. He limited our action to $500 apiece, which was probably OK, since back then we might have made that in two weeks combined after taxes at our jobs out of school.
Anyway, Griffith plunged into the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown and Jason Elam tacked on the extra point. As far as we were concerned, we were golden. On the ensuing kick, Tim Dwight rattled off a 65-yard kickoff return deep into Denver territory, though. Then, two plays later, running back Jamal Anderson had a run to get it into the red zone. Thankfully, defensive back Darrien Gordon stepped in front of a Chris Chandler pass to squelch that drive. He returned it 50 yards the other way. A dump-off from quarterback John Elway to running back Terrell Davis for 39 yards got Denver into the red zone, setting up a short touchdown run by No. 7 himself. As a kid born in Cleveland, I hated Elway. But, on this day, I loved him.
On the next play, Dwight was back, and he returned a kick 94 yards for a touchdown, so our celebrating didn’t last long. However, the Broncos then added a field and the Falcons scored a touchdown but failed the two-point conversion. The girl in the corner who never watched football screamed with excitement hitting the boxes with 9 and 4, and my other buddy sprung from the couch after missing the whole matter because he was full of Redrum. It was an epic Super Bowl party and a nice payday.
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Super Bowl Betting Odds History
I’ve always made a point to take off the Super Bowl and treat it like a holiday, and bet on it, of course. Last season, the Chiefs won 25-22 in overtime. I was bummed because it didn’t go to double overtime, which would have been historic. As it stands, it was the longest-ever Super Bowl, with the Chiefs winning as a 2-point underdog as the under (47.5) still hung on.
Looking back, the underdog has covered each of the past four Super Bowls, and the favorite has won outright just once. That came in Super Bowl LVI, when the Los Angeles Rams topped the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20, while the Bengals covered as a 4-point underdog. The latter was great because it was my now-brother-in-law’s bachelor party in Reno, Nevada. We paired watching the game catching the UFC pay-per-view (PPV) card the night before.
The under has hit in five of the past six Super Bowls, too, so that’s something to remember heading into the big game in New Orleans this season. This is the eighth Super Bowl being held at the Caesars Superdome since January 15th, 1978, and it is the 10th Super Bowl hosted by the city of New Orleans, with two of the big games taking place at Tulane Stadium back in the 1970s.
Since that epic 1985 Chicago Bears defense helped pound the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX on January 26th, 1986, the over has cashed in four of the past five Super Bowls under the roof in New Orleans. This is the first Super Bowl in the Crescent City since the Baltimore Ravens topped the San Francisco 49ers 34-31 on February 3rd, 2013. A late safety in that game made me the screaming person in the corner, hitting the fourth-quarter squares. Me and my buddy immediately went out and had a night playing cards at the casino and drinking everything in sight.
The past 13 Super Bowls have seen the underdog win outright on nine occasions, with the underdog 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in that span. The under has dominated at a 5-1 clip in the past six games, too. Again, though, remember that over run in games played on the fast track in New Orleans, cashing in four of the past five big games there.
Ronald Torbert is the head referee in charge of his second-ever Super Bowl. He was in charge of Super Bowl LVI in 2022 between the Rams and Bengals, which ended up being a close, defensive battle, with 43 total points and an under result. The favorite cashed, with the underdog hanging on.
In total and in closing, three straight Super Bowls have been decided by exactly three points, including two straight wins by the Chiefs. The spread has seen the favorite laying five or fewer points in each of the past 15 Super Bowls since February 1st, 2009, and that doesn’t appear to be changing this season with the Chiefs as a slight favorite. The team which scores first has gone on to win 37 times in 58 Super Bowls.
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