Super Bowl LV Betting Trends: Kansas City Chiefs (2021)
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have led the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl, and for the third time in four years, one of the two Super Bowl representatives will be making consecutive appearances.
Last year, in Super Bowl LIV, Kansas City took down a former Patriots quarterback on their way to their second title in franchise history. This year, in Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs will be doing battle with another former Patriots quarterback, but this one has just a little bit more experience on the big stage.
Kansas City opened as 3.5-point favorites, but their advantage quickly fell by a half-point after early money poured in on the Buccaneers. Are you still torn on which team to bet on? Let’s dive into some trends that lean towards the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
Note: keep an eye out tomorrow for the Buccaneers edition of Super Bowl betting trends.
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Favorites Have the Historical and Recent Edge
Per Danny Donahue of The Action Network, Super Bowl favorites are 28-24-2 (53.8%) and 36-18 (66.7%) straight-up. They have won straight-up and against the spread victories in each of the last two Super Bowls and in three of the last four.
The recent hot streak from the favorites followed a run of five straight Super Bowls (and eight in nine years, beginning with Super Bowl XLII) in which the underdog covered. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to Super Bowl XLIII to find the last time a favorite won but didn’t cover.
The Chiefs Are Making (Weird) History… Again
Kansas City has been setting NFL records left and right since Mahomes took over under center, but this is a really unexpected place in the history books for one of the most high-powered teams we’ve ever seen.
The Chiefs are just the fifth team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl with a losing record against the spread — they’re currently 8-10 (44.4%). They’re also just the third team with the chance to win the Super Bowl with a losing record against the spread (two of the previous four had the opportunity to finish .500 with a win).
If they win and cover, Kansas City will be the first team in league history to win the Super Bowl with a losing record against the spread.
Preseason Super Bowl Favorites Are Cashing Tickets
Three of the last four preseason Super Bowl favorites — New England (twice) and Kansas City — have gone on to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Only the Eagles in Super Bowl LII bucked the recent trend.
The preseason favorite to win Super Bowl LV? You guessed it: the Chiefs (+400).
Patrick Mahomes: Road Warrior
Mahomes wins everywhere, including on the road. That’ll hold extra importance in this year’s Super Bowl because the Buccaneers will be playing in their home stadium. That said, Chiefs backers shouldn’t worry — Mahomes is an astounding 15-8-1 (62.5%) against the spread in his career as the visitor.
It also doesn’t hurt that his coach, Andy Reid, is 40-22-1 (63.5%) against the spread on the road since he joined the Chiefs. He’s also 19-3 (86.4%) straight-up coming off a bye, including 14 covers in 22 games (63.6%). With a week in between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl, we’re technically getting Reid off a bye.
Passing Yards Total
Prop bets haven’t been very widely released just yet, but at the books that did post props, Mahomes’ passing yards total opened at 325.5. He’s eclipsed that total 18 times and is 14-4 in those games in his career. Through those games, Kansas City has outscored their opponents by 154 points.
Notably, all 18 games came in the regular season, so if Mahomes cashes the over on his yardage prop, it’ll be the highest output of his playoff career. However, he’s thrown for 321 and 325 yards in the playoffs before Super Bowl LV, and he won both of those games by an average of 22 points.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.