Super Bowl LV Betting Trends: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2021)

by Mike Wagenman |
Jan 29, 2021

Stop me if you've heard this before: Tom Brady is going to the Super Bowl. Brady is set to make his 10th appearance in the title game when he and the Buccaneers take the field in Super Bowl LV, meaning that he's played in 18.2% of all Super Bowls in NFL history. Simply remarkable.

But, this Buccaneers team is so much more than just Brady. They've got weapons all over the field, they've got a strong offensive line, and their defense has kicked it into another gear ever since Devin White returned to action. They're more than just a one-man show, and they're out to prove it.

Tampa Bay opened up as 3.5-point underdogs, which was quickly bet down to +3 just hours after opening on Sunday night. If you still haven't placed a bet on Super Bowl LV but are leaning towards the Buccaneers, you've come to the right place. Let's take a look at some notable betting trends favoring Tampa Bay.

Chiefs backers – be sure to check out the Kansas City version of Super Bowl Betting Trends.

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Backing Tampa Bay Has Been Profitable

Coming into this season, I was dead-set on fading the Buccaneers, especially early in the year. My hunch was that the public would blindly buy into the hype and bet on Tampa Bay, thus causing the market to overvalue them. I was wrong.

The Buccaneers surprisingly have the seventh-best cover percentage in the NFL at 57.9% and are less than one percentage point away from landing in the top five. Kansas City, on the other hand, is covering in just 44.4% of their games. This certainly shouldn’t be the end-all, be-all, but it's a relatively clear indication on which team has actually been overvalued by the books this year.

Underdogs Have The Edge in the Brady Era

In the Chiefs version of this article, I mentioned that favorites have not only the recent edge in Super Bowls – they've covered in three of the last four – but they also have the all-time edge, going 28-24-2 (53.8%) in the 54 previous Super Bowls. However, since Tom Brady's first championship appearance back in Super Bowl XXXVI, underdogs are 13-6 (68.4%) against the spread.

Brady has been an underdog in just two of his nine previous Super Bowl appearances, and not only is he 2-0 against the spread in those games, but he also won both outright.

Early Line Movement Favors the Buccaneers

This one took a bit of digging, and credit to the guys over at The Action Network for posting a bunch of helpful figures on this. In the last 15 Super Bowls, the team that closes as a worse number than they opened at is 10-5 (66.7%) against the spread.

So, using Super Bowl LV as an example: Tampa Bay opened as 3.5-point underdogs. If they close as underdogs of three or fewer, they would fit the bill for this trend. Currently, the Buccaneers are +3 at nearly every sportsbook.

The Better Team During The Regular Season Struggles In The Super Bowl

Over the last 25 seasons, there have been seven Super Bowls where both teams had the same regular season record. In the other 18 games, the team with the worse regular season record among the two participants is an astounding 15-2-1 (83.3%) against the spread.

Tampa Bay finished the regular season at 11-5, while Kansas City finished at 14-2, making this an extremely strong trend supporting the Buccaneers.

Back to Back Titles Is Rare

No team has won back-to-back titles since the Patriots beat the Panthers and Eagles in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIV. Since then, two teams have had the opportunity to do so, but neither has succeeded nor have they covered the spread. In fact, the 2014-15 Seahawks and 2017-18 Patriots failed to cover by an average of 8.5 points per game.

The Buccaneers can extend the streak to three consecutive failed repeat champions in Super Bowl LV, as they try to prevent the Chiefs from winning back to back titles as three-point underdogs.

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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