Super Bowl LV: Kicking/Punting Prop Bets (2021)
When it comes to the excess of the build-up to the Super Bowl, prop bets to put your post-tax dollars on are near the top of the list. What I typically find most valuable, is keying in on a particular aspect of the game (or two), and spending most of your time breaking it down and finding the edges there.
In this piece, I did a deep dive on the kicking game, and think I’ve found a few worth considering.
All odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook
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Either Team to Miss an Extra Point Attempt – Yes (+195) / No (-250)
This will surely be a prop the average bettor will be scared off of given the steep price, but hear me out.
Each of these kickers has one XP miss this postseason and admittedly rank near the bottom from an XP% standpoint in the 2020 regular season. Both kickers however missed their sole XP in the Wild Card game, and as the pressure increased, so did their accuracy down the middle.
For the Chiefs, Harrison Butker was a perfect 5-5 on XPs & FGs in last year’s big game, as well as a combined 10-10 in AFC Championship games over the last two seasons.
For the Buccaneers, Ryan Succop will be kicking on his home grass, whose conditions he’s been stellar on. Over the course of this regular season, he only missed one XP in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.
Pick: NO -250
Total Punts – Over 6.5 (+115) / Under 6.5 (-143)
The regular season combined averages for the number of punts for Tommy Townsend and Bradley Pinion comes in at just over 6.6, making this # appear to be right on the nose.
The median, however, which throws out the lowest and highest scoring games, comes in at 3.5, well below the posted total. Given that both head coaches have shown a propensity for risk tolerance to get to where they are, I like this number to sail well under the 6.5 posted.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-143)
Team to Have the Most Punts – Buccaneers (-143) / Chiefs (+115)
In the Chiefs’ two postseason games thus far, Townsend punted just one time. On the flipside, Buccaneer’s Pinion has averaged three punts a game, despite a Buccaneers offense that has been successful in all three games.
These stats paired with the Chief’s ability to move the ball and risk tolerance to go for it on fourth, and I love the value the Bucs currently provide here.
Pick: Buccaneers -143
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.