Super Bowl LV Squares Strategy: The Best and Worst Numbers in Your Pool
Last week, I outlined some strategies and tips for winning your Super Bowl Squares Pool.
Obviously, square pools can be pretty random. However, there are definitely better numbers than others in squares pools. But which numbers give you the best chance of winning?
To answer this question, I took a look at every quarter in Super Bowl history to see which numbers came up most often as the second digit in a team’s score.
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First Quarter
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s First Quarter Score
| 0 | 51 |
| 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 24 |
| 4 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 2 |
| 7 | 21 |
| 8 | 1 |
| 9 | 2 |
Most popular first-quarter numbers: 0, 3 and 7
Zero is the hero in the first quarter of the Super Bowl, and it makes sense. Teams tend to start slow as both they settle into the game and keep things close to the vest. That conservative approach results in much less variance in the first quarter box scores.
Almost half of the first quarter scores ended in zero and 89% of the scores ended in zero, three, or seven. If you’ve got any combination of these three numbers, you’ve got a pretty good chance of winning. These three numbers are among the most common throughout the game, but they become less common as the game goes on.
Second Quarter
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s Second Quarter Score
| 0 | 32 |
| 1 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 |
| 3 | 20 |
| 4 | 11 |
| 5 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 |
| 7 | 18 |
| 8 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 |
Most common numbers: 0, 3, 7
The most common numbers from the first quarter remain the same in the second quarter. However, we start to see more variance in the second frame. Specifically, four and six come into play. The second quarter is when numbers like 14, 16, and sometimes 24 become more relevant.
Five is the least common number in the first half, appearing just once in 108 quarters. Interestingly, the number two showed up five times in the second quarter.
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Third Quarter
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s Third Quarter Score
| 0 | 20 |
| 1 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 14 |
| 4 | 13 |
| 5 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 |
| 7 | 23 |
| 8 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 |
Most popular numbers: 7, 0, 3, 4, 6
Unsurprisingly, we begin to see a more even distribution of numbers as the game goes on. Seven actually overtakes zero as the most popular number, which makes sense considering numbers like 17 and 27 are very common in football.
Unless you’re stuck with a two or a five, you can’t really rule out any number in the third quarter. As scoring goes up, so does variance.
Fourth Quarter
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s Fourth Quarter Score
| 0 | 14 |
| 1 | 15 |
| 2 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 |
| 4 | 15 |
| 5 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 |
| 7 | 20 |
| 8 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 |
Most popular numbers: 7, 1, 4, 0
Anything is possible in the fourth quarter as teams do whatever it takes to win or tie the game. Two-point attempts become more likely and throw a wrench into the equation. Teams scramble to get late game-tying or game-winning field goals. Desperation turns into unexpected scoring opportunities off of turnovers.
Seven remains the most likely number, but one and four emerge as more likely possibilities. Unfortunately for people with twos and fives, your odds don’t get much better.
Totals and Final Takeaways
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s Score All Time
| 0 | 117 |
| 1 | 26 |
| 2 | 12 |
| 3 | 69 |
| 4 | 46 |
| 5 | 10 |
| 6 | 34 |
| 7 | 82 |
| 8 | 16 |
| 9 | 20 |
Most popular numbers: 0, 7, 3
At the end of the day, zero, seven, and three give you the best bets to win your squares pool. But as these charts show, your odds are definitely better in the first quarter with these three numbers.
Four, six, and one are also pretty good numbers. You likely won’t hit on these numbers right away, but they give you as good of a shot as any number in the second half.
If you end up with two, five, eight, or nine, I won’t say you’re doomed, but the odds aren’t on your side. Two and five are the worst numbers by a significant margin.
So there you have it. You now know which numbers to get excited about and which to pray you don’t end up with. Best of luck with your squares pools!
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.