Super Bowl LV: What Can We Learn From Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Week 12?
We’re so close to the Superbowl! That means a few things. First, the obvious one – there is no football until then, giving bettors a rarely-afforded chance to sit back and (possibly over) analyze everything about this game.
There are undoubtedly a huge number of data points that can and will be looked into. However, a good first step is to review the previous meeting between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. If you don’t have the time to pour over it yourself, below, you’ll find a quick-fire set of takeaways from my re-watching of the game.
A quick disclaimer – it is unbelievably risky to make bets based on a single data point. No matter how clear cut, the takeaways from this game cannot predict what will happen in the Superbowl. This article is designed to inform only.
View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for Super Bowl LV >>
Quick-fire Takeaways from the Game
- Entering the game, the picture in Vegas had Kansas City as 3.5-point road favorites and the total set at 56. This is almost identical to the current lines for the Superbowl.
- Make no mistake, based on the final score, this game played over. To qualify that, let me list the high-leverage plays that kept this score to 51:
- 2 red zone field goals (1 at the 1-yard line, 1 at the 8).
- 3 opponent half turnovers (1 in the red zone).
- 2 major early third-down drops killed Tampa Bay drives.
- A drop on what would be a sure-fire 60+ yard TD by Mecole Hardman.
- An interesting thing of note if you’re thinking about betting this over (or on Tampa Bay, for that matter) is that they didn’t run the ball on early downs at even close to the level we have seen from them through the playoffs. On early downs, when they were down by less than 10, they only ran 2/8 times.
- Typically, running less means that the offense can be more efficient. This is because teams find themselves in third and long less frequently. While, admittedly, the above stat is a small sample size, it makes me feel a lot better betting on Tampa, knowing they are not as likely to be relying solely on Tom to complete third and longs at an unsustainable rate (which was the case on Sunday against Green Bay).
Check out all of our Super Bowl LV sports betting coverage >>
- The last thing of note within the context of the over is how much Kansas struggled to run the ball. This would lead me to lean on the under and consider betting the underdog for any other team in the league. However, in this game, the Chiefs consistently put the ball in Mahomes’ hands in short-yardage situations. That paints an unhappy picture for Tampa Bay fans, as I trust Mahomes to pick up 2 yards at a significantly higher clip than CEH.
- Tampa found it unbelievably tough to stop the Chiefs’ passing game. Fantasy managers will remember this as Tyreek Hill’s massive game. However, upon second viewing, one thing that stood out was how often Kelce was open underneath.
- That’s significant because the Chiefs’ O-line struggled against Tampa’s defensive front allowing 24 team pressures, per PFF. They project to have an even tougher outing next week, with the injury to Eric Fisher. That pressure may not allow the Chiefs to get Tyreek open down the field, leading to more targets for Travis Kelce.
Final Thoughts
All in all, this game is tough to take too much from. Patrick Mahomes played out of his mind and will struggle to hit the same level in the Superbowl (although 90% of what he did will probably be enough). Tampa found themselves in a hole early, thanks to a couple of key drops and a 75-yard Tyreek Hill touchdown. Nit-picky penalties annihilated the second half.
However, if I had to pick a side in this game, I’d take over 56. I’m also tempted by The Buccaneers’ money line (+150), if only because I think the market is probably slightly overreacting to how poorly the Bills played on Sunday.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Ethan Summers is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @AllSummersLong_.