Super Bowl LVII: By the Numbers (Eagles vs. Chiefs)
The Super Bowl is back, and its 57th version is ready to crown the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs. I am here to dive deeper into the numbers and analytics surrounding this matchup, to prepare you in the best possible way for any bets you care to make come Super Bowl Sunday.
In this article, I will primarily be focusing on the matchup at hand instead of historical data. For that, BettingPros has provided a ton of articles and information. You can find 20 Betting Facts About Super Bowl LVII, Betting History of the Super Bowl, and everything else for your Super Bowl betting preparation as you see fit.
With that being said, here are some important numbers to know for Super Bowl LVII.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
Super Bowl LVII: By the Numbers
All stats via Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, and Pro Football Focus (PFF)
1
The number of fully healthy ankles Patrick Mahomes will be playing on.
Now, this isn’t exactly a deep quantitative analysis, but my point is that the Chiefs are playing banged up. There’s a reason the line moved in the favor of the Eagles as soon as it dropped. Kansas City currently has 10 players on the injury report for non-rest reasons with five of them questionable or worse for the Super Bowl.
The wide receiving corps makes up a bulk of those injuries with Mecole Hardman (IR), JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable), and Kadarius Toney (questionable) all hurt. Despite Mahomes’ wizardry, and Brandon Aiyuk questioning the Eagles’ secondary, Mahomes will need some non-Travis Kelce weapons if the Chiefs’ offense expects to continue playing at a high level.
62%
On a similar note, the Eagles defensive line pressured the 49ers in the NFC Championship game on 62 percent of dropbacks – the third-highest pressure rate for any team in any game this season.
The Chiefs did have the fifth-best Adjusted Sack Rate at 4.8 percent this season, but they will have a tall task in limiting the Eagles’ defensive line, who had a league-leading 11.2 percent Adjusted Sack Rate.
With Patrick Mahomes being who Patrick Mahomes is, I trust his abilities. But as I mentioned before, not only might he not be as mobile with a bum ankle, but his available weapons might not be as open or take longer for their routes to develop.
15th
What’s good for the Chiefs is that even if their passing game struggles, their running game has the opportunity to step up against the Eagles’ 15th-ranked run defense by DVOA. Kansas City leads the league in rush DVOA and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming off Injured Reserve, the Chiefs can keep their offense dynamic.
Despite the Eagles’ pressure rate, their Adjusted Line Yards rank 22nd in the league. On short-yardage situations, they’re even worse with opponents having an 80 percent power success rate which ranks dead last in the league.
While Kansas City’s offensive line might not be the best at run blocking, Andy Reid and Co. are perfectly capable of cooking up some creative plays to keep the Eagles on their toes, no matter what players end up being available or not for Sunday.
11
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ offensive line only allowed 11 total sacks, per PFF – the fewest in the NFL. While it helps to have an agile quarterback like Jalen Hurts, the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them getting to Hurts.
Do you know how I mentioned the Eagles’ top-ranked Adjusted Sack Rate at 11.2 percent? Second, on that list are the Chiefs at 8.9 percent. Chris Jones alone had 10 pressures and two sacks in the AFC Championship game. While the Eagles’ offensive line is quite a bit more bolstered than the Bengals, don’t give all the love to the Eagles’ D-Line when the Chiefs will be hungry to get to Hurts.
I expect this game to be won and lost in the trenches. Analytically speaking you have two fantastic lines on both sides of the ball that will truly make this game a treat to watch. Don’t be surprised to see a few extra sacks in this one.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts