Super Bowl LVII: MVP Prop Bet (2023)
The stage is nearly set, as Glendale, AZ is set to host its first Super Bowl since 2015. The storylines for this one are endless, as Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid will face his former team, looking to join the rare company of NFL head coaches with more than one Super Bowl.
In Philly, the Eagles were the best team all season long before fading a bit down the stretch as QB Jalen Hurts missed time with a shoulder injury. Can Hurts play well enough to win MVP in this one? Or is there more value elsewhere?
Let’s take a closer look.
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Super Bowl LVII: MVP Prop Bet (2023)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Favorite Play
As good as Kelce is, few realize just how valuable he is to this Chiefs offense.
And when it comes to Mahomes’ best options, it’s undoubtedly Kelce, who has at least 78 receiving yards in each of their last eight postseason games. The Eagles rank 15th in terms of yards per game allowed but sixth in terms of yards allowed versus tight ends. Additionally, Pat Freiermuth (4 recs for 57 yards), Zach Ertz (6 recs for 48 yards), and Dalton Schultz (3 recs for 43 yards) were perhaps the finest tight ends they faced this season, and while all good, none in the stratosphere of Kelce.
Despite having a top-10 efficiency ranking against tight ends, they are only average when the schedule is taken into account. Additionally, I have no idea who will be able to cover Kelce in the secondary. Avonte Maddox has had a good season in the slot, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both excellent on the outside, but none have the size or speed to keep up with Kelce.
Though a lot would have to go right, I think this number is way too short.
Pick: Travis Kelce (+1000)
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Value Play
A.J. Brown is thought to be the Eagles’ No. 1 receiver, making Smith their undisputed No. 2 receiver. Not so fast.
In several categories, their results for the second half of the season are remarkably similar. Brown has averaged 8.8 targets and 84.6 receiving yards over the last nine games, while Smith has averaged 8.8 targets and 81.6 receiving yards. Because of how effectively this dynamic pair complements one another, Smith might outperform expectations in the Super Bowl.
With more of the focus on Brown, if the Eagles can move the ball through the air, look for Smith to be a focal point.
Pick: DeVonta Smith (+2500)
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