Super Bowl LVII Odds & Picks: The Case for the Over to Hit (2023)
Betting the over is perhaps the most popular wager across all sports. Rather than root for an individual side, all you have to do is just sit back and root for points. And often, tons of points mean a back-and-forth, thrilling affair.
If you don’t have a rooting interest, all you can ask for is good old-fashioned fun in the final football game until August (no offense to the USFL, AFL, XFL and any other fledgling leagues ending in FL).
The good news is the Super Bowl 57 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles has the makings to be exactly the game we’re yearning for. Oddsmakers and early bettors seem to agree too. The sportsbooks opened the Super Bowl total at 49.5 points, which has since been bet up to 50.5 points as of Feb. 2.
It’s clear we’ve have the makings of an over brewing. So how do we get there? Below, I present the case to a points-palooza:
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Super Bowl LVII Odds & Picks: The Case for the Over to Hit (2023)
Super Bowl 57 Features Two Franchise QBs
This year’s Super Bowl is highlighted by two dynamic quarterbacks. Granted, both enter the game with mild injury concerns.
Patrick Mahomes is the known commodity by now and will look to add to his legacy with a second ring. Mahomes will likely be voted league MVP next weekend after leading the NFL in passing yards. And after gutting out the AFC Championship Game with a high ankle sprain, Mahomes will have two weeks to heal and should be closer to full strength. Mahomes will be the best quarterback the Eagles’ defense has faced by far.
On the other side is Jalen Hurts, this season’s breakout star. Hurts could’ve been the MVP if not for a shoulder injury that cost him two games. Hurts didn’t look great in the NFC Championship, and there are concerns that he’s still hampered by the shoulder when throwing downfield. However, Hurts should also benefit from the extra time to rest and prepare. His dual-threat abilities could be a handful for a Chiefs defense that gave up the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Elite Offensive Coaching Staffs
Super Bowl 57 gives us a matchup between two of the game’s best offensive minds. Like the quarterback battle, Andy Reid has three prior Super Bowl appearances under his belt, while Nick Sirianni is coaching in his first Super Bowl.
That coaching has clearly rubbed off on the field, as the Chiefs top the league in offensive DVOA, while Philly ranks third. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is plenty experienced coaching in Super Bowls, and I’d expect great offensive game plans from both staffs.
The Chiefs Defense Has Holes
Kansas City’s defense is far from an elite unit. The Chiefs rank 17th in defensive DVOA, 20th against the pass and 15th against the run. The unit is led by Chris Jones and Frank Clark along the defensive line, but there are questions within the second level of this defense, especially if cornerback L’Jarius Sneed misses the game with injury.
We saw Jones and Clark give Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense fits a week ago. But don’t expect the same script against the Eagles. Philadelphia has arguably the best offensive line in football, allowing just 31 sacks during the regular season in games Hurts started. If Philly gives him time, he should be able to connect with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert downfield against a mediocre K.C. secondary. And if Hurts is flushed from the pocket, he should have no trouble escaping and using his legs, assuming he’s healthy.
Oh, and Kansas City’s defense faced the third-easiest schedule in the league, per Football Outsiders.
The Eagles Defense Hasn’t Been Tested
Much has been made about the merits of Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles rank sixth in defensive DVOA, have the best defensive line in football and plenty of playmakers in the secondary. But have they really played anyone? They advanced past Daniel Jones and the Giants in the Divisional Round, then knocked out Brock Purdy in the NFC title game and pounced on Josh Johnson.
Football Outsiders says the Eagles played the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season. The best quarterbacks they’ve faced are Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, a banged-up Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields and Dak Prescott. Philly deserves credit for dominating most of those teams, but that isn’t exactly a murderer’s row of opposing passers.
Mahomes and the Chiefs will be the toughest test this defense has faced by far.
The Over is DUE
Lastly, I’m going to throw a simple trend at you. The under has hit in four consecutive Super Bowls, the first time that’s happened since 2005-08. I’m not a huge believer in trends, but maybe that’s all we need to get the over home this year.
In case you wanted more trends, we’ve had seven straight playoff games land under the total. But wait, there’s more! Kansas City’s last three games have gone under, while Philadelphia’s last four games have gone under.
Talk about due.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
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