Navigate

Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets Odds & Picks: Fitz’s Favorites (49ers vs. Chiefs)

by |

You are the superintendent of your bankroll, the master of your domain. I wouldn’t deign to tell you how you should bet the Super Bowl. But since you’re visiting BettingPros, odds are that your primary betting objective is to win money.

I have three recommendations in that regard.

1. Avoid the greasy kid stuff.

For some, betting the Super Bowl is all about heightening the experience and wringing every last drop of excitement out of the final game of the NFL season. I have no beef with that. Some people want to feel an adrenaline rush during the ceremonial coin toss, so they bet it. Personally, I have no interest in betting on a completely random 50/50 event, especially when some of the online sportsbooks impose a small amount of juice for the privilege.

The Super Bowl is a standalone spectacle that will be viewed by tens of millions of people, so of course, the books are happy to provide a vast galaxy of wagering options. If you’re serious about trying to win money, avoid prop bets on the coin toss, the length of the National Anthem, and the color of Gatorade the winning coach will be doused with; stick with wagers that you’ve analyzed and deemed to be sound percentage plays.

2. Don’t go crazy with bet volume.

If you want to bet the Super Bowl like a kid in a candy store because it’s your last opportunity to bet on an NFL game until late summer, I completely understand. But if you’re plunking down 30-40 bets, be prepared to live with an ROI in the -5% to -20% range because the juice is gonna getcha.

Yes, it’s possible to go 28-12 on a 40-wager betting card. It’s highly improbable, however. Think of yourself as a chef trying to create the perfect sauce. You want to reduce the amount of liquid in order to concentrate the flavor and provide a thicker consistency. As with a good sauce, reducing your bet volume gives you a better chance of a satisfying result.

3. Don’t go crazy with bet amounts.

If you’ve been making one-unit and half-unit bets all season, it’s a bad idea to start making three- or four-unit bets just because this is the NFL’s grand finale. Or maybe you’re trying to play catch-up and not have a losing season. Don’t do it.

Dramatically scaling up your bet sizing for the Super Bowl is courting trouble. Be sensible with your bankroll management.

OK, let’s get to my four favorite player props for Super Bowl LVIII. As usual, I’ll be sticking to yardage props.

But first, a recap of last week’s Conference Championship plays …

The wins: David Montgomery over 43.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 61.5 receiving yards

The losses: Lamar Jackson under 208.5 passing yards, Jared Goff under 259.5 passing yards, George Kittle over 60.5 receiving yards

Last week: 2-3

Season record: 98-87

Fitz’s Favorite Super Bowl Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Sunday, Feb. 4.

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 261.5 passing yards (-110)

If you’re with me here, you might want to place this bet later in the week because this number could climb higher. The casuals are going to start plunking down their Super Bowl bets this week, and that crowd wants to bet on Mahomes, not against him. But Mahomes has fallen short of this number in four of his last five games, and the one time he cleared it during that stretch, he cleared it by only a half-yard, throwing for 262 yards against the Dolphins in the wild-card round. The 49ers have given up 231.7 passing yards per game this season, playoffs included. The Chiefs have good reason to strive for offensive balance in the big game rather than a pass-heavy approach. Mahomes has been dealing with a shortage of wide receiver firepower all season, and San Francisco is easier to run on than to throw on, ranking fourth in the league in DVOA vs. the pass and 15th in DVOA vs. the run. I think the under is a good bet at this number, and I’ll like it even more if Mahomes’ yardage total climbs even higher, as is likely to be the case.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 127.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

I could make a case for the over on McCaffrey’s rushing yardage (89.5) or the over on his receiving yardage (34.5), but I’d rather blend the two. As of Sunday night, it was +125 to take the over on CMC’s rushing yardage, and I prefer to reduce the juice. McCaffrey has cleared this yardage total in seven of his last eight games. His only miss during that stretch was a Week 17 game against the Commanders in which McCaffrey tweaked his calf and was pulled from the game early. McCaffrey has also run for at least 90 yards in seven of his last eight, averaging 102.8 rushing yards per game over that span. This week, McCaffrey will be facing a Chiefs run defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and gave up 4.6 yards per carry to running backs during the regular season. McCaffrey has been heavily involved as a pass catcher of late. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 7.4 targets, 5.2 receptions and 39.8 receiving yards. The 49ers don’t want to turn the Super Bowl into a QB duel between Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes, so expect them to get the ball into McCaffrey’s hands early and often.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-125)

Ever since an embarrassing Christmas Day loss to the Raiders in Kansas City, the Chiefs have been hell-bent on making Pacheco a focal point of their offense. In the four games he’s played since the loss to Las Vegas, Pacheco has averaged 20.3 carries and 96.0 rushing yards. As noted above, it’s easier to run on the 49ers than to throw on them. In San Francisco’s two playoff games, they gave up 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and 138 rushing yards to the Detroit tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I think Pacheco will clear this low bar, and I don’t hate the idea of betting the over on an alternate rushing total for Pacheco. I’ve already bet him to go over 84.5 rushing yards at +210 on DraftKings.

Deebo Samuel UNDER 56.5 receiving yards (+105)

Wide receivers have found it hard to do business against the Chiefs this season. Kansas City allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs during the regular season. Their top three cornerbacks — L’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams — have all given up under one yard per route run into their coverage. That’s downright stingy. As for Samuel himself, he’s failed to clear this number in five of his last six games, averaging 44.3 receiving yards per game during that stretch. As of Feb. 4, DraftKings was offering +105 on the under at this number. Consider it a bargain.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: