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Super Bowl Picks: The Case for the Over to Hit (2024)

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The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are squaring off in the 58th installment of the Super Bowl. Most football fans are familiar with these teams as they’ve both been competing for Super Bowls over much of the last four years.

The big offensive names like Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce are well-known to even the most casual NFL fan. So it may come as a surprise that the total of 47.5 is the lowest we’ve seen since Super Bowl L. But it shouldn’t, these are two of the top-seven defenses in the league per DVOA.

However, I’m here to tell you why there is a strong case for the over.

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Super Bowl LVIII: The Case for the Over to Hit (2024)

Low Total Overs

This will be the 33rd Super Bowl where the total has sat at 47.5 or lower. These games have gone 18-15 to the over historically. In the last 25 such games, dating back to Super Bowl X, the over has gone 17-8 while averaging a cover of 6.9 points per contest. Typically, at this stage, you have two of the best teams putting everything on the line offensively, even when the defenses are elite. You won’t see either of these teams holding anything back.

Kansas City’s Running Concern

The Chiefs posted a seventh-ranked defense per DVOA this season. It was anchored by a pass defense that was top in the league per the same metric. However, their run defense ranked just 27th, sixth worst in the NFL. Luckily for this Kansas City defense, they didn’t find themselves down very often late in games so that deficiency against the run never really materialized into something that stuck out in the box score as teams, but San Francisco is a different beast entirely with their stout run game.

Against teams in the bottom 10 of run defense DVOA this season, the 49ers averaged 30 points per game in seven contests. They scored under 28 just twice. Once when Deebo Samuel was out against the Bengals and once in the playoffs when Brock Purdy played one of his worst games of the year against Green Bay.

In the NFC title game against Detroit, San Francisco also showed they weren’t afraid to stay on script even with a large halftime deficit. The 49ers should be able to run on this Chiefs defense and that could play a huge role in going over in this game.

Hole in the 49ers’ Secondary

San Francisco’s defense was elite this season, but they didn’t show signs of weakness against some of the best passing offenses in the league. They played against top passers in the league allowing 27.8 points per game against Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Jordan Love. Those quarterbacks had a lot of success going for an average of 268 yards per game and throwing nine touchdowns.

Many detractors will point to a game against a top-rated Dallas pass offense in which Dak Prescott was held to 158 yards and three interceptions in a 42-10 49er win. However, Dak still completed four passes for over 20 yards in that game even with his turnover issues. 

With Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball, you’re getting a quarterback who neither turns the ball over nor gets sacked. Kansas City is more than capable of taking advantage of holes in the San Francisco secondary and putting up their fair share of points.

Both public and professional money has come in this last week on the under. It makes sense with two of the best defenses in the league squaring off. However, historical Super Bowl trends indicate low totals tend to go over and both of these offenses matchup well with the small weaknesses in the other’s defense. There’s a good chance the over steams as we get closer to the big game and these trends indicate why.

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