Fitz’s Super Bowl LVII Player Prop Bets Picks (2023)
With just one game left in the NFL season, it’s tempting to go on a Super Bowl spree with player props, betting everything that looks even mildly intriguing. I’m going to resist that urge and keep the menu light. I want to leave room for guacamole and chicken wings.
We’ll get to Sunday’s plays in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of the selections from the conference championship games.
The wins: Brock Purdy under 219.5 passing yards, Joe Burrow under 279.5 passing yards, Miles Sanders under 61.5 rushing + receiving yards
The losses: Joe Mixon over 58.5 rushing yards, DeVonta Smith over 65.5 receiving yards, Noah Gray over 12.5 receiving yards
Here are my favorite selections for the Super Bowl …
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Super Bowl Player Prop Bets Picks (2023)
- Last week: 3-3
- Season record: 86-63
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday morning.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 317.5 passing + rushing yards
Mahomes faces an Eagles defense that allowed just 207 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season. Mahomes is no ordinary quarterback, of course, but it’s rare for Philadelphia to be torched through the air. The only quarterback to throw for 300+ yards against the Eagles this season was Dak Prescott, who had 347 passing yards against them on Christmas Eve. The next-highest yardage total for a QB against the Eagles this season: Kyler Murray with 250. Mahomes averaged 308.8 passing yards per game during the regular season but hasn’t faced a pass defense as good as Philly’s, which is the best in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Eagles recorded 70 regular-season sacks — the most by any team since the 1984 Chicago Bears — so Mahomes probably isn’t going to have a lot of time to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to break open downfield. Strangely, Mahomes passing + rushing total is 23 yards higher than his passing total, which is set at 294.5. Mahomes is still dealing with a high-ankle sprain. He ran three times for eight yards last week vs. the Bengals. It’s hard to imagine him doing much damage as a runner.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 48.5 rushing yards
Pacheco has exceeded this number in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He’s also had double-digit carries in nine of his last 11 games. The Eagles’ defense ranks No. 1 vs. the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but it ranks No. 21 vs. the run. It makes sense for Kansas City to attack Philadelphia’s defensive weakness. It also makes sense for the Chiefs to use their running game to keep the Eagles’ pass rush at bay. Andy Reid doesn’t want those Philly pass rushers pinning their ears back and going after Mahomes, whose mobility is compromised by his high-ankle sprain. The BettingPros Prop Bet Analyzer likes this one, too, projecting Pacheco for 58.4 rushing yards and giving the over on Pacheco’s rushing total a 61% chance of hitting. Two potential pitfalls: (1) The Eagles race out to a big lead, and the Chiefs have to abandon the running game while trying to close the gap through the air; and (2) the Chiefs activate Clyde-Edwards Helaire for the first time since Week 11 and go with an RB-by-committee approach. But I don’t think either of those scenarios is likely.
Kadarius Toney UNDER 26.5 receiving yards
Toney sustained an ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game and missed some practice time this week, but he says he’s going to play. Toney has been a part-time player since arriving in Kansas City, logging more than 20 snaps in only one of his nine games with the Chiefs. He’s only exceeded 26.5 receiving yards in three of those nine games. Toney will be facing an Eagles that allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to WRs during the regular season. It’s also possible Toney aggravates his ankle injury or plays even fewer snaps than usual because of it.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 11.5 receiving yards
Gainwell has caught at least one pass in nine consecutive games. He’s had more than one catch in five of those nine games and in four of his last six. Gainwell was targeted three times against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and had two catches for 26 yards. As noted by my colleague Derek Brown, the Chiefs have allowed the most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
Noah Gray OVER 12.5 receiving yards
I bet Gray to finish with more than 11.5 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game and lost when he had one catch for four yards. But Gray has topped this number in nine of his last 12 games and two of his last three. Chiefs WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are slightly banged up after leaving the AFC Championship Game with injuries. And let’s face it: The Chiefs’ wide receivers just aren’t that good, so Kansas City’s tight ends figure to be heavily involved on Sunday. That mostly means Travis Kelce, but perhaps with some Gray sprinkled in, too. BettingPros content director Matthew Freedman projects Gray for 15.8 receiving yards in his Super Bowl player projections.
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