Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 13, 2019

Outside of their fan bases (and perhaps fantasy football players), a contest between a 6-7 team and a 3-9-1 team gets exactly no one excited. Both teams are down their star players and promise to offer a much less exciting on-field product than they started the season with.

From a betting perspective, there are some interesting angles to take in. One team has a clearly superior record, while the other has blown leads in every game leading up to their Week 14 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are down their starting quarterback, while Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has a fractured thumb on his throwing hand. They are also down superstar receiver Mike Evans. The Buccaneers are still -3.5 point favorites in a contest with a 47.5 point total. Let’s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -4 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The consensus over/under total opened at 47.5 points. The point spread has slipped to -3.5. The over/under total has held steady at 47.5.
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 15
Last Meeting: Detroit defeated Tampa Bay 24-21 - December 10, 2017

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Buccaneers at Lions >>

Overview

The 6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a major piece of their offense this past weekend in superstar receiver Mike Evans. Tampa Bay is a team in transition that could very well look very different on the offensive side of the ball come kickoff of the 2020 season. Jameis Winston is on the hot seat and could be starting for a new team next season. If the last three games of the 2019 campaign are to be his final audition for Bruce Arians, he now has another major hole on offense with Evans out. The Buccaneers refused to address their glaring need in the backfield during this past offseason and, as a result, Winston has received zero run game protection.

The talent of the Buccaneers’ offense took a major step back as a whole. Chris Godwin broke out in 2019, but that is as much of a result of losing key players in DeSean Jackson and former slot man (where Godwin now plays) Adam Hunphries, as it is a step forward by the receiver himself. O.J. Howard has been benched and dangled in trade talks as the talented tight end just has not fit in Bruce Arians’ scheme, especially when he is forced once again to play a part-time role due to the presence of Cameron Brate. While the Bucs’ season and the transition to Bruce Arians have both been a disappointment, the Buccaneers were able to score 55 points on the defending NFC champions.

The Buccaneers have been poor on defense all season, but the real problem has been the secondary. Their run defense has looked like one of the best in the league at times this year, but their poor secondary has found a way to allow 29.3 points per game this season, a mark only beaten by the tanking Miami Dolphins. Tampa Bay appears to have an easy win on their hands against the Lions, but with no Mike Evans, Winston dealing with swelling on his fractured thumb, and this being the Buccaneers, nothing is etched in stone.

The Detroit Lions have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFC. While the NFC is indeed stacked with talent, the Lions had the NFC East on their schedule this year and were expected to be much better than the 3-9-1 team they are today. Matthew Stafford and Kerryon Johnson being lost for the season have not helped matters, but the Lions’ campaign was over before Stafford got knocked out for what has turned into the year.

The Lions just placed Marvin Jones on injured reserve and have to be rueing the fact that they did not address the wide receiver position satisfactorily this offseason. Even in the year of the backup quarterback, the Lions failed to acquire an adequate backup for Matthew Stafford. The Lions’ offseason plan likely includes overhauling the receiver room, adding more running back depth (though Bo Scarborough as a street agent has been a good find) and adding more talent to the secondary. Due to playing in a division with three teams that have more talent on one or both sides of the ball, the Lions look set to be a franchise stuck in the mud. It will be interesting to see what the Lions’ plan of attack is this offseason during free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft.

Trends

Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS on the season.
Tampa Bay is 4-3 ATS on the road this season.
Detroit is 5-8 ATS on the season.
Detroit is 3-3 ATS at home this season.
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests.
Tampa Bay is 3-1-1 in their last five road contests against teams with losing home records.
Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 in their last five December contests.
Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 in their last nine contests as a favorite.
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in their last eight contests.
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with losing records.
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home contests against teams with losing road records.
Detroit is 1-5 in their last six contests as an underdog.
Over is 8-0 in Tampa Bay's last eight contests against the NFC.
Over is 10-1 in Tampa Bay's last 11 contests.
Over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay's last five contests against teams with losing records.
Under is 8-3 in Tampa Bay's last 11 December contests.
Over is 4-0 in Detroit's last four contests as a home underdog.
Over is 5-0 in Detroit's last five home contests.
Under is 6-0 in Detroit's last six December contests.

Prop Bets

Chris Godwin over 74.5 receiving yards (-333)
There is not much explanation needed here. With Mike Evans done for the season, Godwin is now the unquestioned number one receiver. He is expected to stay in the slot, so unless Darius Slay plans to travel and play there for 75 percent or more of his Week 15 snaps, Godwin should be able to run wild on the Lions. Unfortunately, at the time of this writing, most books do not yet have their player props up for Week 15, so we instead look at PointsBet's early week offerings for the number with the highest win probability/return combo.

The over 100-receiving yard prop seems like a winner, but there is almost no way that the over-under that PointsBet sets for him this weekend is this high. With that in mind, we instead will focus on the over 74.5 receiving yard prop. -333 is not for the faint of heart. It is a baseball level line with minimal value, but a high enough win probability to warrant a one-unit play for a partial-unit return.

Maximizing your return is not always the goal in betting, otherwise, everyone would play parlays exclusively and do so at the books with the highest multipliers. The reason odds are set at -333 in baseball, or for this player-prop, which is a “pick your own over”-type bet, is due to the inherent win probability. The same is true here. There is an argument to be made that Godwin is indeed worth the 3.33 unit lay for a one-unit return, but instead, we will just focus on bankroll building due to the injury to Jameis Winston.

Bottom Line

This is would be a much more difficult matchup to handicap if Matthew Stafford was healthy. While a Stafford versus Winston matchup would likely be close to a pick ’em, David Blough being under center and Mike Evans being injured has kept the point spread to a very reasonable level. With that being said, three of the Buccaneers’ six victories this season have come by, you guessed it, three points or less. However, the Lions, even more so than the Bucs, are a team that can suffer a complete meltdown on any given Sunday.

Winston is talented enough to weather the interception storms that his aggressiveness and the worst backfield in the league often lead to. Tampa Bay has yet to cover the spread at home this season, but have done so in four of their seven road contests. The sharp money for this contest has come in on the Lions at -4, but with the line now at -3.5, there is a different lean.

-3 is the ideal spread, but it may not get there for this contest. An alternative line of -3 is preferable if you are willing to eat the extra juice. If you are not, Tampa Bay at -3.5 looks to have the higher win probability against a Lions team that is 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests against teams with losing records. PointsBet has both sides at five cents juice, so that is where we will be laying our action.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 15

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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