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March Madness Team Betting Previews: Gonzaga Bulldogs

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Betting Preview: Gonzaga Bulldogs

  • Record: 26-0 overall, 15-0 West Coast Conference
  • ATS: 12-12-2
  • O/U: 14-12
  • Points Scored/Game: 92.1 (1st overall)
  • Points Allowed/Game: 69.1 (124th overall)
  • Outright Odds: +215 (BettingPros Consensus)

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Team Strengths

Gonzaga’s offense is an unstoppable force. Not only did they average the most points out of any team, but they have the best shooting percentage from inside-the-arc as well at a 63.9% clip. Mark Few wanted a harder non-conference schedule to show how good this team is, and they proved just that. The Bulldogs handled Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, and BYU twice. 

Gonzaga did get challenged a bit in the WCC championship game, but I see that more as a good thing. It showed how the Zags could handle some adversity and not fall apart if they are down. One of their tournament games is bound to challenge them, but they can outlast any team, and their starting five is the best group of starters in the nation. 

Team Weaknesses

Umm…none? If we’re grasping for straws, Gonzaga is a bit dependent on interior scoring. 58.3% of the team’s points come from inside-the-arc, ranking 21st. If they face a big physical team that challenges them down low, they could have some trouble scoring. Teams like San Diego State, Texas Tech, Florida State, and Maryland all boast solid interior defense. 

Furthermore, Gonzaga has a surprising lack of depth. Most of their starters play around 28-30 minutes, but if they face a team that forces fouls, they could find themselves in trouble if they need to sit some starters who are in foul trouble. But the Bulldogs have shown they can overcome these obstacles already, and I expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder to prove just how elite they are.

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Why They’ll Win it All

This team is all-around outstanding, and hands down should be the tournament favorite. Let me provide some perspective to you. The 2015 Kentucky team, one of the best college basketball teams of all time, held a KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 37.43 pre-tourney, about three points ahead of the second-ranked team. Gonzaga right now holds an AEM of 38.05, almost six points ahead of the second-best team. Not only are the Bulldogs ranked better than the 2015 Kentucky team, but they are further ahead of the rest of the field as well. I don’t really expect Gonzaga to be challenged until the Sweet 16 at the earliest, and they are incredibly consistent, so they shouldn’t be prone to upsets. 

Why They Won’t Win it All

It’s called March Madness for a reason. Great teams have been toppled before, and anything can happen in March, so it wouldn’t be the most shocking outcome if Gonzaga doesn’t win it all. Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois are all elite teams that can challenge the Bulldogs in the Final Four or championship game. It will be tough, but it has been a while since Gonzaga has seen a top-10 team, so they could absolutely be surprised by one.  

March Madness Prediction

With a team as talented as Gonzaga, it almost seems like reaching the Elite Eight is the floor for them. It is chalky to pick them as a champion, but there is a reason for that. This is absolutely the best team in the tournament, and they are my championship pick. 

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.