Navigate

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick

by |

The Tennessee Titans are set to take on the Baltimore Ravens in what is shaping up to be perhaps the most exciting contest of the Divisional Round. The Ravens boast the number one scoring offense but have also been the number one scoring defense since they acquired star cornerback Marcus Peters. The Tennessee Titans have been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill took over under center in Week 7, and boast the number three scoring offense over that time. Both the Ravens and the Titans have been two of the highest-scoring teams in the league despite relying heavily on their dominant rushing attacks. Their run-heavy styles could lead to some interesting game flow. Let’s dig in.

Playoff Pick’em: Play free for autographed prizes & FantasyPros subscriptions >>

Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -9.5 on the New Orleans Saints. The consensus over/under total opened at 48 points. The point spread has seen quite a bit of movement but has settled back in at its opening number of -9.5. The over/under total has climbed to 47.
  • Current Line: Baltimore  -9.5
  • O/U: 47
  • Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
  • Start Time: 8:15 PM EST, Saturday, January 11th
  • Last Meeting: Baltimore defeated Tennessee 21-0 — October 14, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Titans at Ravens >>

Overview 

The Tennessee Titans have been one of the hottest teams in the league since Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill. Largely considered a bust during his time in Miami, he proved that all he needed was legit talent around him to be able to flourish, and show that he is more than just a competent starter at the NFL level. He may not, and probably should not be someone the Titans consider as a long-term answer, but as long as he has Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, he should be able to keep them in the mix as a playoff contender.

Fresh off an ‘upset’ of the New England Patriots, the Titans will look to shock the world by eliminating the 2-1 Super Bowl favorites in the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee has long been one of the more talented teams in the league on both sides of the ball, but have taken a massive step forward with Brown and Tannehill. They were expected to upset the Patriots by many, but if they manage to upset the Ravens, they just might gain the momentum to go into Kansas City and pull off a third straight upset and a date in Miami for the Super Bowl. 

The Baltimore Ravens enter the Divisional Round as the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are clicking in all three phases, and look nearly unstoppable. They have won 12 straight games, and have beaten some of the best teams in the league in the process. They should be able to cruise to an easy win in this contest and are a strong bet to cover the spread even at such a large number.

Lamar Jackson is set to become the youngest MVP since Jim Brown after a scintillating season in which he led the Ravens to become the toast of the league and to capture their very first AFC number one seed. Lamar will now be chasing the Lamar Hunt Trophy, the trophy going to the AFC Champion, as it is a necessary stepping stone to his ultimate goal of winning the Vince Lombardi. Jackson has been unequivocal in his season-long proclamations that winning the Super Bowl was and is the only goal, and the Ravens have been playing well enough to make the dream manifest into reality. They will need to get by a tough Tennessee Titans team first but have the talent all throughout their roster to blowout a Titans team that may find it hard to pass the ball if they fall behind as expected.

Trends 

  • Tennessee is 9-7 ATS on the season.
  • Tennessee is 6-3 ATS on the road this season.
  • Baltimore is 10-6 ATS on the season.
  • Baltimore is 4-4 ATS at home this season.
  • Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests.
  • Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests.
  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with winning home records.
  • Tennessee is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight contests against the AFC.
  • Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a win.
  • Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests.
  • Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests as a favorite.
  • Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records.
  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests.
  • Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in their last seven contests against the AFC.
  • Over is 9-2 in Tennessee’s last 11 contests.
  • Over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five road contests.
  • Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight contests against the AFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven contests against teams with winning records.
  • Under is 6-0 in Baltimore’s last six playoff home contests.
  • Under is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven contests as a home favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home contests against teams with winning road records.

Prop Bets 

Baltimore Ravens over 28.5 points (-120)
The Baltimore Ravens scored a league-high 33.2 points per game this season, and have cleared the 28.5 total in six of their last eight contests. The two times they failed to cross this total was when they faced two of the top five defenses in the league in inclement weather. The Titans do have a strong defense, but no one outside of Music City would argue that they are on the same level as the San Francisco 49ers or the Buffalo Bills. There is a higher probability than normal that the Ravens fail to clear the over as Derrick Henry could dominate on the ground, in turn controlling the time of possession, which would, of course, limit the Raven’s opportunities to score. If the Ravens do not show rust due to their star offensive players not seeing any game action for two weeks, they should be able to get to at least 31 points even if Henry has a 100 yard plus game on the ground. If the Ravens score first, this will be an easy cover. Punch this in as a potential multi-unit play.

Lamar Jackson over 78.5 rushing yards (-118)
Just a few weeks ago, a Jackson rushing total set this high would have been an easy fade. However, as the weather has cooled down, Lamar has taken it upon himself to make sure the Ravens continue to move the sticks. He cleared the 78.5 rushing yard total in five of his last six games and appears set to do so once again this week. We would usually also be interested in the Mark Ingram player prop, but with him missing two days of practice, it has become obvious that he may not be playing at 100 percent. The juice for this prop is currently on the over and for good reason. The Titans defense, while strong, does not have the tools to stop Lamar if he decides to shred the Titans on the ground, something that is very likely in a win or go home contest. Lock this is as a multi-unit play at FanDuel.

Bottom Line 

This is a tough contest to handicap. On one hand, ESPN’s Power Index has given the Baltimore Ravens an 82 percent probability of winning this game straight up. While we agree that the Ravens are a strong moneyline play that can be parlayed with the weekend’s other heavy favorite, finding a lean against the spread on such a large number is a much tougher task. The Ravens at -3 would carry a win probability of just over 70 percent, at -6, the number would be closer to 59 percent. At -9.5, the Ravens win probability is under 50 percent.

The Ravens can easily blow this game wide open early, but in the event they have some rust and get off to a slower start than usual, they may find it difficult to win by 10 points. The Titans are the smarter play for the full game, but that doesn’t mean you cannot moneyline parlay the Ravens with the Chiefs for a multiple-unit return that can cover your full game lean. The Ravens are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 contests, but the Titans have also been hot against the spread. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with winning road records. Going against the Ravens for someone who has ridden with Baltimore all season is a tough ask, but the Titans have the superior win probability at the current point spread. Ride with the Titans as a one-unit play whether our hearts are in it or not.

Pick: Tennessee Titans +9.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.