Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick
The Titans and the Texans are meeting for the second time in three weeks, but this time there is a lot less on the line than there was back in Week 15. The Texans have already clinched the AFC South, and they will be either a three or four seed in the AFC, while the Titans can only get the second Wild Card spot. The good news for Tennessee is that if they win, they are in, but it doesn’t seem like Bill O’Brien is going to make things easy, as he insists that he will play his starters this week.
Bet $1, Win $200 if a Touchdown is Scored on New Year’s Day >>
Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Titans -2.5; O/U 48.5. The line has moved in favor of the Titans despite O’Brien’s claim that his starters will play.
- Current Line: Titans -3.5
- O/U: 45.5
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Start Time: 4:25 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 15, 2019 — the Texans defeated the Titans 24-21 in Tennessee.
View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Titans at Texans >>
Overview
It all comes down to this for the Tennessee Titans. They’ve dropped their last two games after winning six of seven, and they now find themselves in a must-win scenario to get into the playoffs. But while many teams need a few things to go right in Week 17 to get into the playoffs, the situation for the Titans is simple: win and they’re in. Derrick Henry is still listed as questionable on the injury report, but it’s hard to imagine him not playing in the season finale with everything on the line. Last week, without Henry, the Titans rushed for 149 yards as Dion Lewis led the way with 68. That said, the numbers were skewed because of a 49-yard end-around touchdown by A.J. Brown on his only carry of the game.
Two weeks ago, the Titans’ defense forced two Deshaun Watson interceptions, but they were unable to stop him and the Texans’ offense as they put together two long fourth-quarter drives to secure victory. Last week, against New Orleans, the offense spotted them a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on as they gave up 24 unanswered to Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense.
For the Texans, the situation heading into Week 17 is much different. They have almost nothing to play for since they’ve already wrapped up the AFC South, and they can’t catch the Patriots or Ravens to get a first-round bye in the AFC. However, head coach Bill O’Brien insists that they’re going to play this game to win and that he doesn’t plan on doing anything differently than he did two weeks ago when these teams first met. It’s hard to know how seriously to take all of this since, of course, O’Brien wants the rest of the NFL to think he’s giving everything he has, but he also has to worry about the health of his own players. Is potentially keeping their division rival out of the playoffs enough motivation to put his star players in harm’s way?
Even if the Texans start all their key players, there is the question of how long Bill O’Brien will keep them in, especially if they fall behind or if they look at the scoreboard and see that the Chiefs are winning big over the Chargers. For now, we have to assume that O’Brien is telling the truth, which gives the upper hand to the Texans, at least in terms of skill, considering just two weeks ago they were able to win in Tennessee. But it’s hard to give them the edge in terms of motivation considering what is on the line for the Titans.
Trends
- The Titans are 7-7-1 ATS this season.
- The Titans are 7-7-1 ATS this season.
- The total has gone over in nine of the Titans’ 15 games this season.
- The total has gone under in nine of the Texans’ 15 games this season.
- The Titans are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against Tennessee.
- The total has gone over in eight of the Titans’ last nine games.
- The total has gone under in six of the Texans’ last eight games.
Prop Bet
Texans Total under 20.5
I can see Watson and company playing in the first half, but anything beyond that just seems too risky with bigger games on the horizon. With that in mind, it took the Texans into the fourth quarter to score 21 points last time, and while this game is at home, there just won’t be the same desire from them considering the AFC South was on the line last time. The Titans’ defense has been more than capable all season, and Derrick Henry should be able to run over Texans’ defenders that don’t want to take a beating this week. That will slow the game down and keep the ball away from the Texans’ offense, keeping them under three touchdowns.
Bottom Line
Maybe Deshaun Watson does start on Sunday, but there is no way he finishes out the game. He is a player that the Texans simply cannot afford to lose heading into the playoffs, especially with so little on the line. My gut tells me that the Titans rested Derrick Henry last week knowing that it was all going to come down to this week, and it’s hard to imagine he’s not going to be able to run over an uninspired Houston defense. Even if the starters do play for Houston, there is always the chance that they don’t play as hard as they would have in a normal situation, or will get pulled late in the game. Neither of those things will happen for the Titans, who need to win this game in order to get into the playoffs. Look for the Titans to end their two-game skid and secure the final playoff spot in the AFC.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5)
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)
Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.