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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Odds and Game Pick (2020)

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Coming off an impressive comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Tennessee Titans hit the road as 3-point underdogs with revenge on their minds.

For the second time in three weeks, the Titans will square off against the Indianapolis Colts in a critical AFC South battle. The winner of this showdown will control their destiny for the division crown.

So which of these 7-3 rivals will come out of Lucas Oil Stadium atop the AFC South? Let’s breakdown one of the most exciting matchups of Week 12.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Colts vs. Titans >>

Details 

  • Opening Line: Indianapolis -4.5
  • Last Meeting: November 12, 2020, Indianapolis, 34-17
+3
-104
o51.5
-110
+155
VIEW PICKS
-3
-118
u51.5
-110
-182

View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Colts vs. Titans >>

Overview 

People might forget the Titans actually led 17-13 at halftime of the first matchup between these teams. Then, Tennessee’s special teams collapsed.

Tennessee’s first drive of the second half resulted in an awful 17-yard punt that set Indianapolis up on Tennessee’s 27-yard line. The Colts scored five plays later to regain the lead. Then, Tennessee had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown essentially put the game out of reach. The cherry on top was a missed 44-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski that would’ve kept Tennessee within a possession.

The Titans have one of the worst special team units in the NFL, but it can’t get any worse than it did on Thursday night.

It was a tale of two halves for the Titans offensively, too. Tennessee failed to get on the scoreboard after scoring on three of its first four drives to start the game. Ryan Tannehill completed just 15-of-27 passes. Derrick Henry was held to 103 yards on 19 carries, with 20 yards coming from a single run. The Titans were in a complete funk against one of the best defensive units in football.

Last week’s rally from down 21-10 in the second half might’ve saved Tennessee’s season. Excluding a kneel down to send the game to overtime, the Titans scored on their final four possessions. Henry did what he does best — wear down opposing defenses — and Tannehill was simply good enough to win.

The Colts enter this contest as winners of four of their last five games. And like Tennessee, Indianapolis needed a second-half rally to take down the Green Bay Packers at home.

Normally, a 28-14 halftime deficit against Aaron Rodgers is too overwhelming. But the Colts defense took the game over and held Green Bay to just 146 total yards and three points in the second half. Indy’s defense came up even bigger in overtime, forcing a fumble that led to the game-winning field goal.

Offensively, Philip Rivers is the same shot-putting, gun-slinging quarterback you know and love. But it’s Indy’s rookie playmakers who are giving this offense life. Both tailback Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman Jr., have come alive lately.

Taylor got his biggest workload of the season and delivered  90 yards rushing and four receptions. Pittman has given the Colts passing game a much-needed jolt with 10 catches, 167 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. In fact, Pittman’s breakout party started two weeks ago against Tennessee, when he caught seven balls for 101 yards.

Trends 

  • The Titans are 13-9 ATS overall as an underdog and 7-5 as a road underdog since 2018 under Mike Vrabel.
  • Indianapolis is 15-10-1 ATS overall as a favorite and 10-7-1 as a home favorite since 2018 under Frank Reich.
  • Indianapolis is 9-5-1 ATS in divisional games under Reich.
  • Tennessee is 7-8 ATS in divisional games under Vrabel.

Bottom Line 

This game feels like a pure toss-up to me, which is why I’ll gladly take the points with the divisional road underdog.

Indianapolis boasts one of the league’s finest defenses. But Tennessee was able to put up plenty of points in the first half of their first meeting. If not for Tennessee’s special teams handing Indianapolis opportunities, it could’ve been an entirely different ball game.

I’m expecting a whole lot of Henry early and often to wear down Indianapolis’ front seven. And while Pittman has emerged as of late, Indianapolis doesn’t have much else in the passing game to expose Tennessee’s average secondary.

Give me the Titans at +3 or better and don’t be afraid to sprinkle a few bucks on the moneyline.

The pick: Tennessee +3

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.