Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick

The New England Patriots are a 12-4 team, but it feels like they’re not as strong of a contender as they have been in recent years. After starting 8-0, they finished the season 4-4 and have some genuine concerns on offense heading into Wild Card Weekend.

As these sides prepare for their AFC Wild Card Game on Saturday night in Massachusetts, the defending Super Bowl champions from New England are in a more precarious position than many people expected a few weeks ago. New England, despite having a record which is three full games better than Tennessee, is just a five-point favorite. Can Tennessee cover that spread on the road?

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Details

• Opening Line: New England -5.5
• Current Line: New England -5
• Over/Under: 44
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Start Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Titans 34 vs. Patriots 10

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Overview

The Tennessee Titans weren’t very impressive this season, but in a weak AFC, they were good enough to return to the playoffs after they missed out last year by losing to the Indianapolis Colts on the final day of the season. Tennessee started the season 2-4 and was still 4-5 after nine games, but then Ryan Tannehill – who replaced Marcus Mariota as the team’s starting quarterback midway through the season – caught fire and enabled the Titans’ offense to post a lot of big numbers, including 42 points in a blowout road win over the Oakland Raiders. Tennessee won four games in a row to move to 8-5. Then, however, the Titans lost two straight games to the Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints, before beating a Texans team in Week 17 that was resting their starters.

The Titans went 7-3 with Tannehill under center, who led the league with a 9.6 yards-per-attempt average this season. Running back Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing despite playing 15 games. Given the statistics of this offense, you’d think they’d get a little more credit, but a lot of people feel that they’ve overachieved during this stretch.

New England has everything to lose in this game and quite frankly, they shouldn’t even be in it. The Patriots very rarely play wild card games as their last one came during the 2009 season. New England was on course to get another wild card bye and a crucial week of rest this season, but the Patriots shockingly lost at home to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, a result no one expected. Now the Patriots have to win three playoff games to make the Super Bowl.

The key question for the Patriots is quarterback Tom Brady. He injured his elbow midway through the season, and while he hasn’t missed a start, it could be impacting him. He threw a pick-six in the loss to Miami and has not looked like his normal self. Of course, part of that is the offense, which is lacking weapons. Still, seeing Brady complete under 56% of his passes in five of his last six starts is concerning.

Trends

• Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
• Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
• Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
• Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games.

Bottom Line

The New England secondary has proven veteran playoff performers, and they figure to bring Ryan Tannehill back down to Earth. He has never won a playoff game. However, this Patriots team is more vulnerable than you might think as the defense allowed 21.6 points per game over their final six contests. Don’t be surprised if the Titans make a game of this, but at the end of the day, I’m expecting the Patriots to slide by.

Prediction: Patriots 16, Titans 13

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.