Tennessee vs. Texas 2024 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Round 2 (Saturday)
It was a tale of two types of games for both the Tennessee Volunteers and the Texas Longhorns.
Tennessee blitzed poor St. Peter’s from the jump, ensuring there would be no more magic from the Peacocks in an 83-49 victory. Meanwhile, Texas outlasted Colorado State in a slogfest, defeating the Rams 56-44.
Now, Rick Barnes will do battle with his former program with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line. Here’s a breakdown and prediction for Tennessee-Texas.
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2024 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#2 Tennessee (-270) vs. #7 Texas (+220), O/U: 146.5 (-108/-112)
Can Texas Find Its Offense?
Texas won, and there’s no shame in winning NCAA Tournament games. But boy, the Longhorns’ offensive performance was nothing short of abysmal. Texas shot 1-for-14 from three-point land and struggled mightily against a Colorado State team that ranked 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Things will only get harder against a Volunteers defense that ranks third in defensive efficiency and held teams to just 31% shooting from deep. The Vols are also elite at defending the inside, where Texas scored the vast majority of its points.
As bad as the Longhorns were offensively, they were outstanding on the defensive end, posting their second-best effort on that end, per Bart Torvik. The Horns held the Rams to just 29.3% shooting and allowed just 22 points along the interior against an elite Rams interior offense.
You’d have to think Texas’ clunker was more a blip on the radar, as the Longhorns ranked 57th in effective field goal percentage during the season. But they will be stepping up in class against a fierce Volunteers team.
Can Tennessee Avoid the Letdown?
Last year, Tennessee made the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in Barnes’ tenure. However, the Vols fell to 9-seed FAU after their path was paved to a deep run. While they took care of business against St. Peter’s, there isn’t a ton to take away from that dominant win. Tennessee was expected to dominate, and they did.
The test starts now for arguably the best Tennessee team in Barnes’ era. The Vols play faster than they ever have under Barnes and have a bonafide superstar in Dalton Knecht.
Tennessee can exploit several areas in this matchup with Texas. Tennessee could have a massive advantage on the glass, ranking 66th in offensive rebounding rate, while Texas ranks 222nd on the defensive glass. Tennessee should also have the edge in the turnover department, as they protect the ball and force a good number of takeaways. The Volunteers could also stay hot from three against a Texas defense that lets opponents shoot 34.4% from deep.
Prediction & Best Bet
While I expect Texas to shoot better than they did against Colorado State, Tennessee is the superior team with the best player in the game. There are several matchup advantages, and while the line feels a bit high, I’d lean toward the Vols.
The pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-108)
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