Tennis Betting: 2020 French Open Men’s Semifinals
The 2020 men’s French Open is one pair of wins from creating the matchup everyone is anticipating: a Sunday men’s final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. That would be a supreme blockbuster, but first, Nadal and Djokovic have to get through their Friday semifinals in Paris, against talented players who are capable of beating them. Let’s look at the two separate semifinal matchups.
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Semifinal No. 1: Rafael Nadal vs. Diego Schwartzman
Odds: Nadal -800
There should be a widely accepted awareness that while Nadal deserves to be the favorite, this match doesn’t figure to be particularly easy for him. Nadal could win in straight sets, but Schwartzman figures to give him a battle the whole way; no set figures to be easy in this match. Schwartzman was the only player to win a set off Nadal when Rafa won the 2018 French Open title. Schwartzman won the first set and was outplaying Nadal when rain interrupted the match and caused it to be delayed to the following day. Under very different weather conditions, given a chance to regroup, Nadal took control, but everyone knew that Schwartzman had outplayed Nadal the previous day.
A few weeks before this French Open, Schwartzman defeated Nadal at the Rome Masters tournament. Schwartzman’s consistent and flat two-handed backhand penetrated the court. It caught Nadal off-balance in Rafa’s first tournament after the pandemic-based hiatus. Nadal did not compete in North America on hard courts at the U.S. Open, so his return to clay was expected to be somewhat rusty. Schwartzman took advantage of that rust. Nadal did not serve powerfully or consistently, and Schwartzman was regularly able to exploit the weakness of Rafa’s serve. Nadal’s serve therefore becomes a key part of this match. Another key is Schwartzman’s ability to regroup physically and mentally after a quarterfinal win over Dominic Thiem which lasted over five hours. Nadal is in a good position here, but if he doesn’t serve well, Schwartzman can still pull a surprise.
Pick: Nadal
Semifinal No. 2: Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Odds: Djokovic -320
Djokovic had some physical discomfort in his quarterfinal win over Pablo Carreno Busta. It wasn’t enough to stop him from winning, but it was noticeable, and Djokovic did not play the very best tennis he is capable of. People will wonder how physically fit Djokovic will be against Tsitsipas, and the quality of opposition will force Djokovic to be much closer to his best. Tsitsipas is making his second appearance in a major semifinal. He is comfortable on clay and met Djokovic in the 2019 Madrid Masters clay final. This is the first major-tournament meeting between Djokovic and Tsitsipas, which will motivate both players. If Djokovic is not on his game, Tsitsipas will have an opportunity to engineer an upset, but the key will become Tsitsipas’ ability to maintain composure. Tsitsipas blew a lead against Borna Coric at the U.S. Open, squandering several match points and eventually losing. Tsitsipas has never made a major tournament final. If the match is close in the third or fourth set and Tsitsipas sees the finish line, he will need to conquer his nerves.
Obviously, Djokovic – with a significantly improved performance compared to his quarterfinal – will want to prevent that scenario from ever becoming real.
Pick: Djokovic
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.