Texans vs. Chargers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)
Introducing the Wild Card Weekend edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Wild Card Weekend matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Texans vs. Chargers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer>>
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Sides:
- The Texans have won seven of their last 10 home games.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 18 games and are 7-10 ATS this season.
- They are 10-21-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-8 ATS (40%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Texans have scored first in 10 of their last 12 games.
- Their opponents have scored last in each of the Texans’ last six games.
- In five of the Texans' last nine games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
- The Texans have won the first half in 11 of their last 14 games.
- Thirteen of their last 19 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- The Texans have won their last 11 road games against AFC South opponents.
- The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- Houston is 11-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (68%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Houston is just 17-17 against the spread over its last 34 games.
- Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
- The Chargers are 12-5 ATS this season.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in their last five road games.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Chargers' last 17 games.
- The Chargers have won each of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
- The Chargers have scored first in the last 11 of their last 12 games as road favorites.
- Their opponents have scored last in seven of the Chargers’ last eight road games.
- The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Chargers have scored first in six of their last nine road games.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine home games against teams with a winning record.
- The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
- The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight home games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
Totals:
- Houston is 6-11 O/U this season. Eleven of the Texans' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 1-7 O/U at home (Under 43 points per game).
- According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans' last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Texans' last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Texans have gone under in 22 of their last 36 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Each of the Chargers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Chargers’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Chargers’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-one of the Chargers’ last 32 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Chargers’ last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 9-8 toward the under this season.
Overall
Shocking absolutely no one, the Houston Texans are hosting the first game of 2024 NFL Wildcard Weekend on Saturday in the late afternoon window.
They will take on the Los Angeles Chargers, who are favored by a field goal on the road. Does this represent an opportunity to buy the dip on the team catching points at home? Hard pass.
Maybe if this was the Chargers of old, but Jim Harbaugh's team has been up to the task all season, especially on the road - where it seems like they play all their games anyway (thanks, SoFi). The Chargers have covered the spread in their last five road games and in nine of their last 11 games overall.
Houston, meanwhile… It just hasn't been their season in any capacity. Other than playing AFC South teams, it has been a struggle for C.J. Stroud. He is 8-3 all-time in the division and 11-10 in all other games.
Aside from scoring first, Houston hasn't done much of anything to instill confidence they can win this game even at home, let alone cover the +3. The Texans are 2-4 on the money line as home underdogs over the last two seasons. 6-8 ATS (40%) as home underdogs ATS. They were one of just two teams that the Titans were able to cover the spread against this season.
The Texans don't blow teams out, and the Chargers have the offensive line pieces in place to mitigate Houston's pass rush.
Give me the Bolts laying 2.5 on the road. And feel free to live bet this game on the side of the Chargers, given Houston's propensity to start hot but sizzle out in the end.
As for the game total, chase the trends. Texans home games go UNDER, as do Chargers' road games. The Texans’ anemic offense/strong defense combination also provides the perfect obstacle to halt the Chargers' four-game streak of overs.
Props:
As I noted in the overall breakdown, Houston is very much live to score first in this game. But as underdogs, the first TD bets are at longer odds.
Justin Herbert has completed 20.5 passes or more in five straight games. He has also had a 60% hit rate on this number on the road this season. Herbert has also thrown for 1.5 passing TDs in four of his last five games.
TDs are most likely going to come through the air in this game. Houston and Los Angeles rank second and first, respectively, in passing TD percentage allowed this season.
Dalton Schultz also had a solid game last week in limited playing time, with three catches for 29 yards.
Schultz has 29-plus receiving yards in five of his last eight games.
Ladd McConkey has hit 71.5 receiving yards in three straight games and six of his last seven games.
John Metchie has at least two receptions in six of his last seven games.
Diontae Johnson was targeted on the second drive in his Texans debut last week by backup QB Davis Mills twice, catching both his targets for 12 yards (27% target rate). I expect him to mix in WR rotation Robert Woods/John Metchie in the Texans' playoff game against the Chargers.
Metchie suffered what looked like a concussion last week and was a DNP on Tuesday with a shoulder injury. This will likely increase DJ's role in Saturday's late afternoon game.
Therefore, my favorite longshot bet on this contest is attacking Johnson in the anytime TD market.
Fun fact: this is Johnson's third game this season against the Chargers (with a third different team).
He hasn't done anything in any of the other matchups, but I still think he can be a force in the red zone. He has 11 red zone targets this season (mostly with Carolina).
But his presence near the goal line is on his 2024 tape, and I'd envision the Texans deploying him in that fashion with Collins as the obvious No. 1 target. Anytime TD odds are already long +750, but the degenerate in me loves his first TD props at 35-1. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has been singing Johnson’s praise after Week 18, stating that he will be fed more in the postseason.
In Week 18, the Chargers passing game was led by wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who had a standout performance, recording 13 catches for 186 yards, though he could not find the end zone despite three red-zone targets. He caught all nine targets in the first half for 118 yards.
Betting on QJ never seems safe, given his drops, but he only needs to catch one in the end zone to cash the anytime TD bet. It also appears that Joshua Palmer might miss another week after he opened on the injury report with a DNP on Tuesday.
My Picks: