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Texans vs. Colts NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 8)

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Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Texans vs. Colts.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games and are 3-4 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites (5-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Eleven of their last 14 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 13-11 against the spread over its last 24 games.
  • Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-9-1 ATS as a favorite (31%).
  • The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
  • HOU, as a road underdog, is 10-4-1 ATS and as home favorites, 3-4-1 ATS (43%).
  • The Texans have won each of their last five home games.
  • The favorites have won 16 of the Colts' last 19 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season and more than 70% ATS as an underdog (2-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against the Texans.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 16 of their last 26 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 2-5 O/U this season. Five of the Texans' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-3 O/U at home.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last 10 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (eight starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-3 toward the over this season (three straight unders).

Overall:

Every game played in Houston this season has finished the projected game total. 3-0 toward the under, with teams averaging fewer than 40 points per game. Each of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.

Not picking sides here in a Week 1 rematch divisional matchup.

I think the total is way too high. Yes, the game went over 50 points the last time these teams played, but each offense was at full strength. This is not the case in Week 8.

The Texans should win (7-1 as home favorites), but I'm terrified of a backdoor cover. Houston's defense is good, ranking inside the top 5 in the fewest yards per play allowed (4.8).

Props:

Tank Dell saw six targets, including penalties, but goose-egged. Woof. Dell saw two red zone targets but failed to convert either into a catch with 45 air yards, 32.85% air yards share, and 21.05% Target share. Buy low. He still sees a massive target share in the offense without Nico Collins.

My Picks:

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