Texans vs. Dolphins NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)
Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Texans vs. Dolphins.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Sides:
- The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 16 games.
- Miami has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games.
- The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record.
- The Dolphins have lost 15 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
- Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night.
- The Dolphins have won the first half in seven of their last eight games.
- Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-9 overall since 2023. They are 5-10 as an underdog in their last 15 applicable games.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as road underdogs.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight home games.
- The Dolphins have won 23 of their last 30 home games.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 14 games and are 5-8 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites (7-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Thirteen of their last 17 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 15-15 against the spread over its last 29 games.
- Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 6-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Houston is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won six of their last eight home games.
- The Texans have scored first in each of their last eight games.
- The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Texans have won the first half in nine of their last 10 games.
- In four of the Texans' last five games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
Totals:
- The Dolphins are 5-2 toward the over with Tua Tagovailoa the last seven weeks.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Dolphins’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Dolphins’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Dolphins' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Miami is 5-2 toward the over at home this season (46 points per game).
- Eleven of the Dolphins' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- According to DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Texans' last eight games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
- The Texans have gone under in 20 of their last 32 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Houston is 4-9 O/U this season. Nine of the Texans' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-5 O/U at home (45 points per game).
- Six of the Texans' last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
The Texans are coming off a bye week hosting the Miami Dolphins, fresh off an OT victory over the New York Jets.
Typically, this would be an easy spot for a fade of the Dolphins. They don't play against good teams, especially on the road.
But how good are the 8-5 Texans? As I've pointed out since last season, the market seriously overrates how good this Houston team is.
The favored Texans can’t be trusted anywhere near a betting spread since the start of last season. 6-12-1 as a favorite (31%).
Miami has been 5-1 ATS for the last six weeks, and I expect them to continue to play well on offense with Tua Tagovailoa playing indoors.
Miami's offensive line has been solid in pass protection, providing ample time for Tua Tagovailoa to dice up the Texans. The Texans have faced the most deep targets this season.
Given the matchup, Jaylen Waddle could be set up nicely again in this game. Waddle is over 45.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games (5/8 with Tua this season). But the books have adjusted, and Waddle's yardage prop has leaped to 57.5 yards. Not great value, in my opinion. He is also on the injury report this week.
However, the overall passing game might struggle. According to Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa has targeted open receivers (3+ yards of separation) on 56.5% of his passes this season, the highest rate in the NFL.
He has completed 87.2% of these passes and has thrown 13 touchdowns (5th-most, despite missing four games) compared to only one interception. The Texans have allowed open targets on 39.3% of passes this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL. They have allowed a 78.7% completion rate on these passes, the 3rd-lowest rate.
Houston has started games fast this season, scoring first in their last eight games while winning the first half in nine of their last 10.
I like the Dolphins here, so I think we have a live betting opportunity to take the Fins on the road if they fall behind early on.
As for the total, I lean toward the under. When we zoom out on these two teams, we are usually disappointed more often than not. Miami's last two road games have finished under game totals of 47.5 and 49.5 - with the latter also in a dome. Games played in Houston this season have shied toward the under.
Props:
Nico Collins has gone over 85.5 receiving yards in all of his games this season with a full allotment of snaps. Miami's secondary has been decimated by injuries, and they allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for 300-plus yards for the first time since the Ronald Reagan administration.
Houston is No. 3 in DVOA versus tight ends this season. They have also allowed the fewest catches to the position (tied with the Lions).
Miami is on a streak of six straight unders to opposing RBs rushing projections in the last six weeks.
Tagovailoa has thrown for over 265.5 passing yards in four straight games. The last three healthy QBs Houston has played have gone over their passing yards projection.
My Picks: