Texans vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 3 Picks & Player Prop Bets (2023)
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Texans vs. Jaguars.
NFL Betting Primer: Texans vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC) vs. Houston Texans (HOU) – Spread: JAX -8.5
Until the Houston Texans' offensive line gets healthy, it's going to be impossible to back them in most situations. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been slightly overshadowed by not many household names, but they are generating a whole lot of pass rush. They rank third in total pressures and 6th in pressure rate. Ergo, C.J. Stroud will continue to have to make plays happen as the seventh-most pressured QB in the NFL.
As for the offense, they had one of the worst run-outs versus the Chiefs. Dropped passes and some near misses in the end zone along with some key questionable play calling ended their chances of beating the reigning Super Bowl champions. But after re-watching that game, I really think they were far from overmatched.
https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1704179337136615751
Luckily this Jaguars squad has shown the ability to rebound after underwhelming offensive performances. When held to 20 or fewer points in 2022, the Jags averaged 28 points per the game following week going 5-2 straight up wins versus losses.
And the biggest issue with this team is the lack of sustained drives. They rank dead last in the third-down conversion rate. The easiest way to fix this? Pick up some yardage with the run game to make third downs more manageable. I think that going back to Travis Etienne Jr. versus a suspect Texans run defense will get the Jaguars offense back on track. Zack Moss averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry against them in Week 2. They are tied for the third-most missed tackles on defense.
Houston also ranks 29th in third-down conversion rate and 29th in red zone conversion rate allowed this season.
Feels weird backing a Jaguars team with an 8.5-point spread, but the Texans were completely overmatched versus the Colts, who Jacksonville had a lot of success against back in Week 1. Eventually, we will get to see what this Texans team can really do later down the road, once they get healthy. But until then expect more of the same from the team that is minus 27 in point differential with back-to-back 10-point losses.
My one concern would be the backdoor cover -Stroud is going to make some plays in this game despite his horrible surroundings - indicated by the Texans' 10 4th-quarter points in Week 2.
I don't hate the Jaguars’ -5.5 first-half spread an alternative approach to this game. At home after a big loss to the Chiefs, have to imagine the Jaguars want to get started fast. The Jaguars’ team total at 26.5 is also in play (13.5 first-half team total). Houston ranks 31st in first-half points allowed (17.5)
Also, firmly on the over in this game with Stroud bringing enough to the table to keep points on the board. Houston ranks third in passing attempts per game, and with no run game to speak of...I don't see that changing anytime soon. Bet the over on Stroud's 222.5 passing yards and parlay it with the over on WR Nico Collins. He went 7 for 146 and 1 with nine targets in Week 2. 25% target rate per route this season. 5th in receiving yards (226). 5th in total air yards. A monster after the catch looking to dish out punishment. Looks like he is on the cusp of a true breakout. OVER. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most yards after the catch this season.
My Picks:
- Jaguars 1st half -5.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 43.5 (-110 BetMGM)
My Props:
- C.J. Stroud OVER 233.5 passing yards (-104 Caesars Sportsbook)
- Nico Collins OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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