Texans vs. Jets: NFL Thursday Night Football Preview (Week 9)

Halloween night brings us a nice treat on the gridiron when C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans take on Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium to kick off Week 9 on Thursday Night Football.

Both of these teams have some key injuries, notably Houston, missing both of their top two wide receivers, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, while the Jets will be playing without two of their defensive backs, linebacker C.J. Mosley, wideout Allen Lazard, and interior offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker.

The Jets have lost five straight games, with four of these losses delivered via one-score deficit. Luck has been on the Texans’ side in terms of outcomes, sitting at 6-2 and winning five of their six games by six or fewer points.

My TNF Week 7 pick lost under 48.5 total points due to a safety recorded by the Los Angeles Rams in the final minute of the game, which made it 30-20. The face mask on Vikings QB Sam Darnold was not called and couldn’t be reviewed, so we lost on a bad beat.

Let’s bounce back with a win during tonight’s AFC showdown between the Houston Texans vs. New York Jets. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Preview

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Spread: Houston +2.5 (-115) | New York +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline: Houston (+114) | New York (-134)

Total: Over 42.5 (-115) | Under 42.5 (-105) 

Oddsmakers are laying -2.5 with the New York Jets, despite entering this game 2-6 and losing five consecutive games. C.J. Stroud and the Texans have only lost twice in 2024, including 24-22 on a walk-off field goal against the Green Bay Packers in Week 7. Both of Houston’s losses have been on the road against Minnesota and Green Bay, and now, they’ll look to find a way to beat the Jets without their top two wide receivers against one of the league’s best pass defenses.

New York’s offense should funnel touches through their backfield to establish the run and pick up first downs against Houston. The Texans are surrendering 4.7 YPC, sixth-most in the league, which means Breece Hall and Braelon Allen should combine for 25-30 carries on Thursday night. This will help take some pressure off of Rodgers without one of his best interior linemen.

Houston and New York allow 4.8 and 5.2 net yards per pass attempt, which shows how stingy both of these secondaries have played in 2024. Only Denver is better in this metric, however, the Texans have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, compared to only six by the Jets. Stroud won’t have an easy outing without Diggs and Collins, while bellcow RB Joe Mixon is facing a run defense allowing 4.2 YPC, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL. New York can’t stop the run in the red zone, allowing 10 rushing touchdowns, but moving the ball downfield will be a challenge for Houston’s short-handed offense.

The Jets’ defense hasn’t forced a turnover since Week 5, while Houston has forced nine turnovers in their last three games, with eight interceptions recorded in 2024, third-highest in the league. Both of these offenses have been turnover-prone, so we could see drives end with a turnover to flip momentum on Thursday night.

These lines set by oddsmakers are tricky to navigate. They feel exactly right, leaving minimal value on the board. The Jets opened at -1 a week ago, then went up to +1 after their loss to New England, before bouncing around between -1 and -2.5. The point total opened at 43.5, went up to 44, then dropped to 42 before rising to its current 42.5 line. The Texans are 4-1 toward the under in their last five games, while the Jets have cashed the over in three straight games, 43-52-47.

Rodgers and the Jets desperately need a win and will be the more aggressive team tonight, exploiting a porous Houston run defense with a heavy dose of Hall and Allen. They also have a healthier wide receiving corps and a more stout secondary, despite missing a couple of defensive backs on Thursday night. Let’s bet a unit on the Jets’ moneyline at -134 odds.

Prediction: Jets Moneyline  (-134)