Thanksgiving Day 2022 NFL Parlay: Picks for Thursday’s Games
Thanksgiving is a holiday built on traditions. It’s a day when friends and family gather to cook a turkey. It’s a day when 2 p.m. is an appropriate time for dinner. And it’s the only time when taking a nap in the company of others is acceptable.
Football is obviously a major part of our Thanksgiving traditions, and my personal tradition is to book a parlay with one leg from each of Thursday’s three games. I’ll still provide my Week 12 Same Game Parlay picks later in the week but I wanted to serve up an appetizer before the feast.
Speaking of appetizers, since Thanksgiving is a holiday featuring food, I’ll also take you into my house to tell you what I’ll be eating and drinking during each game.
Here’s the Thanksgiving parlay I’ll be placing this weekend.
Leg 1: Bills-Lions Over 54 points
Food Pairing: Charcuterie board
Drink: Three Floyd’s Gumballhead
Is there a better way to start our Thanksgiving Day than with a ton of points? I suspect the opening game between Buffalo and Detroit could be conducive to scoring.
After a hectic week that involved a massive snowstorm and a relocation to Detroit, the Bills’ offense started slowly but still put up 31 points against the Cleveland Browns.
I’m a bit concerned about Josh Allen’s elbow injury, as I think it could be affecting him early on in games. But what’s most intriguing is Buffalo discovered its running game against Cleveland, rushing for 171 yards and 5.2 yards per carry. Now, Buffalo’s offense will get a Lions defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 324 yards last week.
Offensively, the Lions have actually been quite good, ranking 10th in DVOA. And while Buffalo’s defense ranks third in DVOA, this unit is really banged up. Front seven members Tremaine Edmunds, A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau are all likely to miss the game, while Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde still remain out in the secondary. Getting pressure on Jared Goff is the best way to beat him, but it might just be Von Miller against a Lions offensive line that ranks second in adjusted sack rate.
We just saw Jacoby Brissett put up 324 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills’ defense. Goff should be able to keep the chains moving and feed Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot. I think Detroit’s offense can keep up with Allen and the Bills, who should be able to get anything they want.
As for the food and drink, I come from an Italian family, so you’ll see that injected throughout the Thanksgiving feast. Our day begins with some prosciutto, salami and assorted cheeses, usually around the fourth quarter of the first game. But of course, the first beer is cracked right around kickoff.
Leg 2: Tony Pollard Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
Food Pairing: Turkey with fettuccini alfredo
Drink: Red wine, preferably cabernet
Thanksgiving is a time for us to be grateful, but I don’t appreciate the NFL giving us this slop on our plate. The Giants are an overrated team. They might also have three starting offensive linemen out. And Daniel Jones will make anyone throw up their turkey.
Yet, I still don’t feel good about laying 9.5 points with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. While the Lions get a ton of slack for their Thanksgiving performances, the Cowboys have actually lost four of five on turkey day. Dallas hasn’t won by double digits on Thanksgiving since 2009. In fact, they’ve been beaten by double digits five times since 2010.
So rather than get involved on the side, I’m going to throw a prop pair in the mix. The Cowboys made a concerted effort to play through their tailbacks against Minnesota last week, and it worked wonderfully. I’d expect a similar game plan this week against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in rushing DVOA. Pollard’s cleared this prop in five of his last six games.
I also really like Micah Parsons’ over 0.25 sacks as a separate prop against a Giants offensive line that could be without both its tackles and center.
As for our dinner, it’s got the traditional Thanksgiving fixes, but being Italian, pasta was added to the equation. And nothing pairs better with Thanksgiving dinner than a glass of red wine.
Leg 3: Patriots-Vikings Over 42.5 Points
Food Pairing: Pie and cookies
Drink: Bourbon
Yes, I know the New England Patriots rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA. But I have to ask, how good is this unit? The Pats have faced Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger in their last three games, which certainly boosts their defensive metrics.
We’ve seen this unit serve up points to Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago. I’m not sure this defense is all that elite despite its recent efforts.
I also expect a bounce-back performance from the Vikings, who would be smart to shelter Kirk Cousins with a steady ground game. Minnesota’s offense ranks 13th in rush DVOA, while New England ranks 12th in run defense DVOA.
I also expect New England to find success against a Vikings defense that was exposed last week against Dallas. The Patriots should be able to move the ball on the ground, and Mac Jones could move the ball against a Vikings secondary that’s banged up and ranks 19th in pass defense DVOA.
While I’m not a huge dessert fan, I will indulge in a post-dinner drink or two. Makers Mark 46 and Elijah Craig are my go-to’s. And if we’re lucky, maybe some Weller or Blantons will make a cameo.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and let’s hope we win big this turkey day!
Parlay Odds: +611
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