The 62nd Annual Grammy Awards: Betting Odds & Suggested Picks
Itâs awards season! The Golden Globes came and went with a few surprises (and a stellar job from host Ricky Gervais), and the Grammys are up next. Thereâs swirling controversy around the awards show after the National Academy for Recording Arts and Sciences, the organization that puts on the Grammys, suspended their new CEO, Deborah Dugan, for misconduct. Interestingly, Dugan has since shot back with allegations of her own.
Although I doubt that the hubbub around Dugan will have any effect on who wins what award, itâs going to be in the back of everyoneâs minds as the show goes on. Iâll be taking a look at three of the most prominent awards: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year to give you my take on the race for each award. All odds come from William Hill, and theyâre current as of publication.
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Album of the Year
Nominees and Odds
Album | Artist | Odds |
When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? | Billie Eilish | -200 |
Cuz I Love You | Lizzo | +400 |
Thank U, Next | Ariana Grande | +550 |
Norman F***ing Rockwell! | Lana Del Rey | +550 |
I, I | Bon Iver | +2500 |
Father of the Bride | Vampire Weekend | +3300 |
7 | Lil Nas X | +4000 |
I Used To Know Her | H.E.R. | +5000 |
Suggested Pick: When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? (-200)
Last year, some sportsbooks missed on Album of the Year, but that was in a year without a clear winner. Thatâs because the favorite to win Best Record and Best Song, âThis is America,â was released as a single. As a result, the Album of the Year race turned into a close to a tossup between Janelle Monaeâs âDirty Computerâ (+300), Kacey Musgraveâs âGolden Hourâ (+350), Cardi Bâs âInvasion of Privacyâ (+400), and Drakeâs âScorpionâ (+400), and Musgraves ended up the winner. William Hill is pretty confident this year, however, and Billie Eilishâs âWhen We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?â is a heavy favorite. Also, betting trends show that Eilish has only become more of a favorite over time.
While these odds arenât very profitable, it should be a safe bet. Lizzoâs âCuz I Love Youâ just hasnât received the same hype among critics that Eilishâs album has gotten, and Ariana Grandeâs âThank U, Nextâ lacks the energy that Eilish brings to the table. That said, the critical acclaim that Grandeâs album has received warrants considerably better odds than +475. The album ranked first in top-50 charts by both Rolling Stone and Billboard, so its long odds could give you a nice return on investment if you can stomach the risk. Other folks, like the Los Angeles Timesâ Mikael Wood, project Lana Del Reyâs âNorman F***cking Rockwell!â as the wildcard option. The album features an array of real instruments, and the academy has been sympathetic to those in the past. Iâm still taking Eilish with confidence here, however.
Record of the Year
Nominees and Odds
Song (Recording) | Artist | Odds |
Old Town Road | Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus | +100 |
Bad Guy | Billie Eilish | +130 |
Truth Hurts | Lizzo | +700 |
7 Rings | Ariana Grande | +800 |
Sunflower | Post Malone & Swae Lee | +1600 |
Talk | Khalid | +3300 |
Hard Place | H.E.R. | +4000 |
Hey, Ma | Bon Iver | +4000 |
Suggested Pick: Old Town Road (+100)
The Grammy for Record of the Year rewards the production and mixing behind a song, not its lyrics, and the mix of Lil Nas Xâs hit that featured Billy Ray Cyrus was certainly a banger. The song dominated the Billboard Hot 100 last year, and it broke the record for the most consecutive chart-topping weeks at 19. That was three more than the two songs now tied for second place, Mariah Carey and Boyz II Menâs âOne Sweet Dayâ and Daddy Yankee and Justin Beiberâs âDespacito.â Although âOld Town Roadâ was eventually unseated by Billie Eilishâs âBad Guyâ â the song with the second-best odds to win â donât sleep on Nasâ record-setting performance. That said, the Grammys robbed both âOne Sweet Dayâ and âDespacitoâ of Record of the Year when they got nominated for the award, so popularity doesnât guarantee success.
Although âBad Guyâ poses some tough competition, itâd be silly to take Eilish over Nas with the odds where they are now. You should also consider locking in âOld Town Roadâ with âWhen We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Goâ as a two-way parlay.
Song of the Year
Nominees and Odds
Song (Songwriting) | Artist | Odds |
Truth Hurts | Lizzo | +175 |
Bad Guy | Billie Eilish | +175 |
Someone You Loved | Lewis Capaldi | +400 |
Lover | Taylor Swift | +450 |
Always Remember Us This Way | Lady Gaga | +2000 |
Norman F***ing Rockwell | Lana Del Rey | +2000 |
Hard Place | H.E.R. | +4000 |
Bring My Flowers Now | Tanya Tucker | +5000 |
Suggested Pick: Bad Guy (+175)
Unlike Record of the Year, Song of the Year rewards songwriting. Thatâs not good news for Lizzo and âTruth Hurts,â as the singer has dealt with accusations of plagiarism, and she was even forced to extend songwriting credit to British performer Mina Lioness. Itâs an ugly situation, and because of it, Iâm surprised to see âTruth Hurtsâ sharing the best odds at William Hill. BetOnline has âBad Guyâ as their favorite, and the song currently has +155 odds to +183 for âTruth Hurts.â Still, neither sportsbook seems that confident in their favorites, reminiscent of last yearâs race for Album of the Year.
Lizzo and Eilish appear locked in a two-way race for this award, but William Hill sees Taylor Swift and Lewis Capaldi as close enough competition to keep their odds under +500. BetOnline has those tracks at +350 and +450, respectively, so those two tracks are interesting high-reward options. However, itâs probably not a good sign that neither Swift nor Capaldi got nominated for Album of the Year. In the past decade, Song of the Year winners came from Album of the Year nominees with only two exceptions: once when Childish Gambino released âThis Is Americaâ without an accompanying album, and once when Lorde won it for âRoyals.â As a result, âBad Guyâ seems like the best bet to end up with the Grammy.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.