The 92nd Annual Academy Awards (The Oscars): Betting Odds & Suggested Picks
The biggest night of awards season is upon us. On Sunday, February 9, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will present the Oscars, and this year, both DraftKings and 888sport are in on the betting market. Both books have odds on all 24 categories, and some of those groupings have clear winners and heavy favorites. Because of that, I wonât break down the odds for each category. Instead, Iâll pick out the categories where you stand to make the most money from an individual bet. Remember â these arenât necessarily my favorites to win, theyâre just my favorite bets based on the odds theyâve received. Keep that in mind before you cross-apply my advice to your Oscars pool.
Unlike the Academy, Iâll start with Best Picture. Letâs take a look at the odds:
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Best Picture
Film | DraftKings | 888sport |
1917 | -200 | -200 |
Parasite | +275 | +275 |
Once Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood | +900 | +750 |
Joker | +1000 | +1000 |
Jojo Rabbit | +5000 | +8000 |
The Irishman | +5000 | +8000 |
Little Women | +10000 | +10000 |
Marriage Story | +10000 | +15000 |
Ford v. Ferrari | +25000 | +25000 |
There are three contenders for this yearâs Best Picture award: â1917,â âParasite,â and âOnce Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood.â Sam Mendesâ war film, â1917,â nailed down the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Award for Best Picture last week, and it has to be the front-runner for Sunday night. The BAFTAs, according to Ben Zauzmer, author of âOscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood,â are reasonably predictive of the eventual Academy Award winners. Heâs even developed a model for Hollywood Reporter that gives â1917â a 36.5 percent chance to lock down the award.
If youâre in an Oscars Pool, itâs a smart pick. But if youâre a sports bettor, itâs not a great value. The filmâs -200 odds at two major sportsbooks give its victory an implied probability of 66.7 percent â far greater than what Zauzmerâs model predicts. Obviously, sportsbooks arenât going to sell you odds without inflating implied probability, since they do have to make money somehow, but this race is more of a tossup than these odds suggest. While â1917â has good odds to win, but theyâre still worse than a coinflip. Similarly, the implied probability for Parasite (26.7 percent) also exceeds the rate given to it by Zauzmerâs model (19.3 percent), although by much less.
That leads us to âOnce Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood.â DraftKingâs +900 odds imply that the Tarantino film has just a 10 percent chance to win Best Picture, but Zauzmerâs model gives it a 15.3 percent chance. While his model also loves âThe Irishman,â the lack of buzz around the Scorsese film makes risking much money on it tough to stomach.
The voting process for Best Picture could also give Tarantinoâs film a boost. Voters rank each film, and âBest Pictureâ goes to the film with the most overall support, not the most top rankings. That means â1917â and âParasiteâ could still receive sizeable backing within the Academy without coming away with its top honor. That means you should take the money and run by betting on Tarantinoâs penultimate film. Itâs a high-risk, high-reward dart throw, but it might just pay off. To lower your risk, Iâd recommend that you make âOnce Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywoodâ a one-unit play, and that you pair it with a two-unit play on either â1917â or âParasite.â
Suggested Pick: Once Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood (+900 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Original Screenplay
Film | DraftKings | 888sport |
Parasite | -265 | -263 |
Once Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood | +160 | +160 |
Marriage Story | +1700 | +1200 |
1917 | +3300 | +3300 |
Knives Out | +3300 | +3300 |
Best Original Screenplay is a tight race between âParasiteâ and âOnce Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood.â South Korean director Bong Joon-hoâs âParasiteâ emerged as the front-runner after wins at the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTAs, but the race is a bit closer than the odds would suggest. Zauzmerâs model gives âParasiteâ a 45.2 percent chance of winning, compared to its implied odds of 72.6 percent at DraftKings. Meanwhile, the model gives âOnce Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywoodâ a 39.9 percent chance, while the sportsbooksâ odds give it just a 38.5 percent chance.
Although momentum is undoubtedly in Bong Joon-hoâs favor, the odds have him out too far ahead. Once again, you can snag some solid value by taking Tarantinoâs film for Sunday night.
Suggested Pick: Once Upon a Time ⦠in Hollywood (+160)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Film | DraftKings | 888sport |
Jojo Rabbit | -177 | -175 |
Little Women | +125 | +125 |
The Irishman | +1000 | +1000 |
Joker | +2500 | +2500 |
The Two Popes | +5000 | +5000 |
The race for Best Adapted Screenplay is one of the nightâs closest, and âJojo Rabbitâ is one of the few betting favorites with odds this low. Like âParasiteâ in the race for Best Original Screenplay, âJojo Rabbitâ locked down the BAFTA, although neither DraftKings nor 888sport favor the film as heavily.
Maybe thatâs because itâs got such tough competition from Greta Gerwigâs âLittle Women.â The Academy was rightly criticized for failing to nominate Gerwig for Best Director, and thereâs some speculation that she could receive this award as a kind of recompense.
Zauzmerâs model favors âJojo Rabbitâ for this one at 40.7 percent to Little Womenâs 28.9 percent. Like with Best Picture, both favoritesâ implied probabilities (63.9 percent and 63.6 percent for âJojo Rabbit,â respectively, and 44.4 percent for âLittle Womenâ) exceed what he predicts. With this race, however, I donât think youâre getting enough value with the underdog to justify breaking with the favorite, and I wouldnât recommend taking a shot in the dark on Scorseseâs drama. Instead, Iâd take Taika Waititiâs quirky screenplay on 888sport.
Suggested Pick: Jojo Rabbit (-175 at 888sport)
Best Documentary Feature
Film | DraftKings | 888sport |
American Factory | -265 | -118 |
For Sama | +175 | +125 |
Honeyland | +500 | +400 |
The Cave | +5000 | +5000 |
The Edge of Democracy | +5000 | +8000 |
With the consensus weâve seen in the other categories, Iâm surprised to see this much difference between the two sportsbooks here. Although both of them correctly present the category as a three-way race, DraftKingsâ heavy favorite gets only a slight edge from 888sport.
According to Zauzmer, this race is âwide open.â âAmerican Factoryâ and âHoneylandâ lead the way, with 36.8 percent and 35.4 percent chances to win, respectively. But âFor Samaâ beat out âAmerican Factoryâ at the BAFTAs just last weekend, and while it only gets an 11.2 percent chance from Zauzmerâs model, both DraftKings and 888sport give it better odds than âHoneyland.â
Implied probability reveals that DraftKings is significantly overcharging for âAmerican Factory,â as its odds suggest the film has a 72.6 percent chance to win â almost twice what Zauzmerâs model shows. In contrast, 888sportsâ margin rests on an implied probability of 54.1 percent, which is far more reasonable.
But neither sportsbook has given âHoneylandâ a fair deal. DraftKingsâ odds only assume it has a 16.7 percent chance to win the Oscar, less than half of what Zauzmerâs model predicts. Itâs certainly risky, but DraftKings is offering a pretty good deal on âHoneylandâ at the moment, and Iâd buy now before anything changes.
Suggested Pick: Honeyland (+500 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.