The American Express (2026) Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
The American Express tees off in La Quinta, California, across three different courses, led by Pete Dye’s Stadium Course at PGA West. Located in the Coachella Valley, Scottie Scheffler is the dominant betting favorite to win during his 2026 PGA Tour debut at +300 odds.
All other golfers in the outright winner betting market have massive odds in comparison to Scheffler. Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, and Russell Henley are all +2200 odds, followed by Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay inside of +3000 odds.
Last week’s Sony Open winner wound up being Chris Gotterup at +4000 odds. The New Jersey native recorded his third PGA Tour win since 2024, finishing 6-under-par at Waialae in the final round to win by two strokes on Sunday.
There are tons of longshot options in the outright winner market at The American Express tournament this week. I’ve found three worth tailing, each valued at a 0.25 unit. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
The American Express (2026): PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Wyndham Clark (+8000)
Wyndham Clark missed the cut at this event in 2025 but he’s capable of getting red-hot with any club in his bag. Clark finished 2025 ranked 25th in driving distance, 24th in putting average, and 30th in one-putt percentage.
Most notably, Clark logged 30th in birdie average at 4.15 per round. This will be a potential difference-maker at The American Express, with all three courses historically yielding low scores due to ideal scoring conditions on short tracks.
Let’s invest in Clark at +8000 odds to post his fourth career win on the PGA Tour and first since the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Sami Valimaki (+12500)
Sami Valimaki is an even bigger longshot at 125-1 odds this week. The Finnish golfer has some fine attributes that could translate to climbing the leaderboard, despite missing the cut in both previous appearances at The American Express.
In 2025, Valimaki ranked 39th in total strokes gained. This included 18th SG: Approach and 10th SG: Putting. This led to ranking 30th in scoring average and 27th for par 4s and birdie average.
Off-the-tee was the weakest part of Valimaki’s game. However, at the upcoming courses in the Coachella Valley, Valimaki’s iron accuracy and ability to finish with his putter could turn the tide in his favor as a longshot in the outright winner betting market.
Let’s bet on Sami Valimaki to win The American Express at +12500 odds ahead of Thursday’s opening round.
Kevin Roy (+15000)
We just saw Kevin Roy log a solid T13 finish at the Sony Open last weekend. The 35-year-old American opened with a 62 before cooling off in the final three rounds.
Roy finished 2025 ranked 42nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 54th SG: Putting, and eighth in total driving. He was also 11th on approach shots from 200+ yards, 18th in proximity, 19th in scoring average, and fourth on par 4s.
In 2025, Roy logged a T18 finish at The American Express. He carded consecutive rounds of 66 on Friday and Saturday, propelling himself up the leaderboard after an opening 71.
At +15000 odds, Roy is simply too talented to be this undervalued. Let’s wrap up our longshot wagers on The American Express with one more bet on Kevin Roy at 150-1.