The American Express Betting Guide (2021)
It was another birdie fest in Hawaii this past week, as Kevin Na took home his fifth career PGA Tour title after an impressive 21-under-par finish. Na tied a record for the most rounds of 61 or better since the start of the 2010 season. On Saturday, his nine-under 61 was the fourth of his career and helped him take home the $1.5 million prize.
The PGA Tour will now return to mainland U.S.A. for the American Express. La Quinta, California, will play host to the event as the west coast swing commences. Due to the pandemic, there is no longer a Pro-Am this year. Also, rounds will only be played on the Stadium and Nicklaus courses. There will be a 36-hole cut instead of a 54-hole cut that players are accustomed to at this event.
Early betting favorite Jon Rahm announced his withdrawal from the event due to unknown reasons. Patrick Cantlay (+1500), Patrick Reed (+1700), Brooks Koepka (+2100), and Tony Finau (+2100) are atop the betting board. We can once again expect plenty of birdies this week. The last couple editions of this tournament have featured final scores of -26.
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Previous Winners
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
- 2019: Adam Long (-26)
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
- 2017: Hudson Swafford (-17)
- 2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
Course Preview
Three of the four rounds will be played this week at the TPC Stadium Course (host course) in La Quinta, California. The Stadium Course is a Par 72, 7,147 yard-long Pete Dye design. It played as the fifth easiest course on Tour last season with an average score 0f 70.36. Golfers will see a mix of Bermudagrass and Poa on the greens. Plenty of water hazards align the track, as golfers will have to be methodical with their shot selections.
One round will be played at the Jack Nicklaus course. It is perenially one of the easiest golf courses on Tour each season. In 2020, the course ranked as the second easiest on the circuit, with players averaging a score of 69.24. It is a Par 72 track that is 7,181 yards. Greens feature both Bermuda and Poa grass.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Par 4 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdie-or-better
Outright Betting Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+1700 on BETMGM)
This is lining up to be a great spot for Scheffler to get his first PGA Tour win. He finished third here last year after shooting opening rounds of 65-64-66. The Texas native racks up birdies in bunches. He ranked seventh on Tour last season in birdie average (4.35) and excels on easy courses. Over the past five months, he has a T4 at the PGA Championship, a fifth at the Tour Championship, and a T19 at the Masters.
Tony Finau (+1900 on BETMGM)
Another golfer hungry for a win is Tony Finau. The 31-year-old is still searching for his second career win, but his talent is too good for this drought to last. “Mr. Top-10†shot a 62 at this event last year en route to a T14 finish. He is a supreme birdie maker who finished 2020 ranked 11th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 21st in strokes gained: approach. If his putter catches fire, look out.
Longshot Betting Picks
Sam Burns (+5100 on BetMGM)
“Bermuda†Burns has popped up on the leaderboard in consecutive years at this event. In 2020, he closed with a final round of 63 to finish T6. The year prior, he had a respectable T18 after finishing the week at 18-under-par. So far in this young season, Burns ranks third in strokes gained: off-the-tee, fifth in GIR percentage, and 15th in birdie average.
Chris Kirk (+6700 on BetMGM)
Kirk is coming off a brilliant week at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He fired four consecutive rounds of 65 en route to his T2 finish. The underlying stats look great, as his approach and tee-to-green game were both excellent. He now goes to another birdie-fest that should suit his game nicely. The 35-year-old has rediscovered his game after a short rehab stint and looks primed for a win.
Other Betting Picks
Paul Casey – Top English Player (+157 on BETMGM)
Casey is in a class of his own compared to the other English players in the field. The 43-year-old is a world-class ball-striker who finished ninth in strokes gained: approach and 21st in strokes gained: tee-to-green, in 2020. This is an event Casey should keep the ball in the fairway at and give himself plenty of birdie looks.
Sungjae Im – Top Asian Player (+238 on BETMGM)
Im is off to a solid start to his 2021 campaign. The young Asian led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green at the Sentry Tournament of Champions a few weeks ago and made the cut at the Sony Open to follow. He now goes to a place where he finished T10 at in 2020 after an impressive 18-under finish.
Matchup Plays
- Abraham Ancer over Matthew Wolff (+185 on BetMGM)
- Tony Finau over Brooks Koepka (+185 on BetMGM)
- Russell Henley over Kevin Na (+175 on BetMGM)
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.