The Books Aren’t Fearing Tiger Woods’ Return
To the sports betting world, there has never been an athlete in an individual sport like Tiger Woods.
The gallery roars that rip through the trees for Woods have been as loud as any in the history of golf. The television ratings consistently hit record levels for viewership when he is playing well and the sportsbooks in Las Vegas see more “average Joes†bet with both fists on Woods when he has a chance to win a tournament.
For the sportsbooks, Tiger Woods has been, and is still, great for business. He has single-handedly driven up their handle on golf for over 20 years now.
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Before the 2019 Masters, a recreational gambler named James Aducci from Wisconsin came to Las Vegas to place his first-ever sports bet on Woods to win the event. The odds were long as Woods had gone 11 years without winning a major and had undergone multiple back surgeries. But that didn’t stop Aducci from placing an $85,000 bet at William Hill inside the SLS Casino. And Aducci became a media sensation when he took home a $1.2 million check after Woods put on another green jacket.
Of course, Aducci has hardly been the first recreational bettor to wager big on Woods in a tournament, regardless of the odds. There is just, understandably, little media coverage of the countless other times the public hammered Woods to win a tournament but he failed to do so.
Simply put, when Woods plays in a PGA Tour event, you can rest assured that there will be plenty of betting action on the event. The public money on Thursday, when the event starts, comes pouring in on Woods to win. It’s even better if he is on the front page of the leaderboard heading into the final round on Sunday when the public can’t stay away.
“Anytime Tiger is in a tourney, the handle is doubled,†Dave Sharapan of CG Sportsbooks said. “When Tiger is competitive, it just goes up from there. Without a doubt, there is a ‘Tiger effect’ on golf wagering. No one else can compare.â€
The Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide begins on Thursday from Muirfield Village and Woods opened as a 26-1 underdog to win the event at most books. This week’s tournament is the first time the world will see Woods play competitive golf since the Genesis Invitational in California in February. The COVID-19 pandemic stopped the PGA Tour and Woods has not played in any of the events since the Tour restarted.
But the Memorial is Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, and Woods wasn’t going to miss an event at which he had been a familiar face for nearly 20 years. That is especially true because Woods has the chance to break Sam Snead’s record for most career wins if he prevails. To break Snead’s record at Nicklaus’s event would make the feat even more special. That only adds to the interest this week from the betting public.
“Tiger being back is never bad for handle,†said Rex Beyers, Senior Sports Trader at Caesar’s Entertainment. “He’s been the most popular golfer and one of the most popular athletes of the 21st century.â€
Yet, this is not the same Tiger Woods from 1999. The 44-year-old has been battling numerous injuries over the past decade and has not been anywhere near as dominant as he once had been. The Tour is no longer afraid of Woods and the younger stars of the sport often welcome the opportunity to take down the king.
“With golf’s talent pool deeper than it has ever been, Tiger accounts for an increase in handle of roughly 10 percent, where it was in the range of 20 percent a few years back,†said Jeff Sherman, VP of Risk Management of The Westgate Superbook.
While that might be true, Woods is seeing considerable action at DraftKings Sportsbook in his return to the course; as of Wednesday morning, Woods outright wagers represented 19 percent of the total handle and 14 percent of the bets made.
The recent hot streak of Bryson DeChambeau in the restart for the PGA Tour has kept ticket writers busy in Las Vegas, especially at Caesars Sportsbook. DeChambeau opened the week as the co-favorite to win the event, tied with defending champ Patrick Cantlay.
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“The golf write has been pretty solid for a few weeks in the odds-to-win market here and I’m not sure how much it will grow with him being in the event,†Beyers said. “If he is in it with a chance to win after any or all of the first three rounds, I would anticipate a nice spike in our adjusted odds-to-win, which we put up a couple of hours after the end of the round. To this point, we have some exposure on Tiger but it’s far too early to tell whether we will actively be rooting against him.â€
Sharapan agrees that if Woods is in contention before the final round, the books will be looking for him to not win the event.
“As far as liability this week, I would expect it to be the same as it has been for the last 15 years. I will be surprised if Tiger is not in the top 5 for both tickets written and money wagered. Books have been rooting for years for Tiger to be in contention until Sunday, and then finish a few strokes back.â€
As of Tuesday afternoon at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, Woods’ odds to win the Memorial were behind numerous golfers like DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and others. The SuperBook does have red numbers next to other golfers but they aren’t too worried about Woods this week.
“We are not expecting liability on Tiger this week since he returns after a long layoff from competitive golf,†Sherman said. “The in-form golfers are seeing more wagering support this week like Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger and Abraham Ancer.â€
Woods hasn’t won the Memorial since 2012 and he hasn’t won an American event since the 2019 Masters. It’s not hard to see why educated sports gamblers might fade Woods this week. However, with the chance to break Snead’s record in front of Nicklaus, Woods’ idol, it would be difficult to rule out the possibility of something magical happening in Ohio this weekend.
If Woods has a chance to win before Sunday’s final round, expect the sportsbooks to be pulling for someone else to win the event.
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Matt Perrault is a featured writer at BettingPros and the host of the Daily Juice podcast. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @sportstalkmatt.