The Case for Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) to Win Super Bowl LIV

The Super Bowl is always a high-volume betting day, and this year’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will be no different. The Chiefs are slight favorites over the number one seed from the NFC, but they are making their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969. Head coach Andy Reid has a chance to remove the asterisk from his name on the list of greatest coaches of all time, and he will look to do so behind quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a much-improved defense.

If the Chiefs are going to win and cover the very small spread, this is how they’re going to do it.

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Everyone in the world probably thinks the most important thing for the Chiefs to do is outscore the 49ers with their incredible offensive attack, but the truth is, the Chiefs will need to stop the run in order to get their offense on the field. The Chiefs have won eight straight games, and in that span, they have given up just 93.63 yards per game on the ground. They began the season terribly against the run, and it was a major reason why they started out the season 6-4. The Colts were the first team to take down the Chiefs, and when they did, they provided a simple script for how to beat Kansas City: if you could run the ball and keep it away from Mahomes, then you were going to win. It was that easy.

But the Chiefs’ run defense has gotten much better as the season has progressed, and they have been able to get off the field in the playoffs despite finding themselves behind early by double digits after lackluster starts.

While the Chiefs have proven that no opponent’s lead will ever be safe against them, they’re probably going to need to start fast against San Francisco if they want to have any chance to win the Super Bowl. Everyone was shocked when they fell behind 24-0 to the Texans in the Divisional Round, but what was even more shocking was that they made the same mistakes a week later, as they fell behind 17-7 against the Titans in the AFC Championship.

While the Chiefs were able to survive both of those slow starts, they weren’t facing defenses of the same caliber as the 49ers. San Francisco has the number-one pass defense in the league, and because of that, it will be hard for the Chiefs to mount a comeback if they fall behind.

But that’s not to say they won’t be able to come back if they do trail early in the game. After all, they have Patrick Mahomes, and with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins, the Chiefs are bound to score points against the 49ers’ stout defense. The 49ers’ secondary has been great all season, but the Chiefs are able to score on just about anybody and have been particularly great on offense during their eight-game winning streak. While the 49ers may be the better team on paper, the Chiefs have the best player, and oftentimes the best player is who you want on your side in the biggest game of the year.

If the Chiefs are able to jump out to an early lead, then it’s going to be unbelievably difficult for the 49ers to catch up and surpass an offense that has as many weapons as the Chiefs do. But even if the Chiefs fall behind, there’s no way anyone should write them off until the fourth quarter clock shows 0:00. They have the most explosive player in football, a great head coach, an underrated defense, and they’ve been the hottest team in the league since Week 11. With so much on their side, it’s not hard to see why the Chiefs are favored to win Super Bowl LIV.

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