The Case for San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) to Win Super Bowl LIV

The Super Bowl is always a high-volume betting day and this year’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will be no different. The 49ers are slight underdogs against the Chiefs, as they make their first Super Bowl appearance since 2013. The 49ers are the first team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl after four straight seasons of 10 or more losses and, with a win, would tie the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins in NFL history. San Francisco finished the year 13-3 and played nearly the entire season as the NFC’s number one seed. Yet, they still find themselves underdogs against the number two seed from the AFC heading into Super Bowl Sunday. So what will it take for the 49ers to actually pull out the victory in Super Bowl LIV?

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First, they’re going to need to run the ball as effectively this week as they have in their previous two playoff games. The Chiefs’ run defense is much improved from earlier in the season, but that doesn’t mean the 49ers can’t find success against them. Tevin Coleman is looking healthier with each passing day, as he tries to get himself ready for the Super Bowl. If he is able to play, he will join Raheem Mostert in the backfield and give San Francisco a deadly one-two punch. But even if Coleman isn’t healthy enough to make a big impact on the game, the gameplan shouldn’t change for the 49ers. Mostert will be the workhorse just like he was in the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs have started incredibly slow in their previous two postseason games, so if San Francisco is able to jump out to an early lead, their run game may be able to control the clock and prevent the Chiefs from mounting another epic comeback. Mostert will be the key factor in that process.

If the 49ers are able to get a lead, they will also have to rely heavily on their number one ranked pass defense to shut down Patrick Mahomes and hold onto it. The defense has been incredible all season long and their stellar play has continued into the postseason. The pass rush has caused nine sacks in the postseason and is constantly creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That makes the life of the secondary very easy, and the unit has excelled because of it. As long as the 49ers’ defense is able to keep Mahomes from getting comfortable in the pocket, they should be able to stay in this game for the long haul.

While everything so far has pointed to the 49ers needing to jump out to an early lead so they can grind the clock and turn the ball over to their great defense, they don’t necessarily need to play the entire game from in front. Despite not needing to throw the ball at all last week, Jimmy Garoppolo has proven he can win games for San Francisco this season and has an array of weapons at his disposal. Garoppolo will need to utilize those weapons this week, as the 49ers are going to have to throw the ball in order to win. No lead is safe against the Chiefs, and even with their great secondary, the 49ers are likely going to have to outscore the Chiefs in order to win this game. They’ve been able to score with opponents throughout the season, and of their three losses, none have come by more than seven points. During the back half of the season, the offense was called upon to outscore high-scoring offenses and they were able to do so more often than not.

And while the 49ers and their fans will find no consolation in a loss, they can still win ATS with a one-point defeat. The 49ers were 12-6 ATS this season, and as they have not yet been blown out, it’s hard to imagine them getting blown out by the Chiefs in the final game of the season. If they are able to stick around by running the ball effectively and playing great defense, then it would not be shocking at all to see this game come down to a last-second field goal. In a game as even as this one should be, being the underdog does give you a bit of an advantage ATS.

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.