The Case for the Over to Hit in Super Bowl LV
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest gambling events of the year, and people bet on everything from the coin toss to every score change to whether or not there will be a missed extra point to the yardage of the longest accepted penalty. Super Bowl pools are common at nearly every bar and office space, and articles and television spots are dedicated just to prop bets that are available.
In this space, we’re going to talk about one of the more common bets: betting the over/under in the Super Bowl. Since this game brings out even the most casual bettors who may not even bet on sports throughout the year, the over/under bet is a common play since it’s quick and easy to understand. It’s essentially like putting money on red or black at the roulette table for the casual bettor because of what appear to be 50/50 odds on the surface.
But we’ll take a look at both teams, the important numbers, and all of the recent Super Bowl trends in order to help you make a decision.
Here is why betting the over is the right play for Super Bowl LV.
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Game Odds
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KC
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-3
-122
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o56.5
-110
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-174
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
TB
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+3
EVEN
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u56.5
-110
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+146
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Recent Super Bowl Trends
The under has hit two years in a row, but the over has hit three of the last six years and six of the last 10 years. The current over/under number of 56.5 is one of the highest of all time. At its current mark of 56.5, it’s the second-highest over/under after only 2017’s 57 when the Patriots beat the Falcons 34-28 in overtime (the over hit) and 2010’s 57 when the Saints beat the Colts 31-17 (the under hit).
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl results from over the last decade.
| Super Bowl | Year | Location | Matchup | ATS Result |
| LV | 2021 | Tampa, FL | Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay | – |
| LIV | 2020 | Miami, FL | Kansas City (-1.5) 31 vs. San Francisco 20 | Favorite-Under (53) |
| LIII | 2019 | Atlanta, GA | New England (-2.5) 13 vs. L.A. Rams 3 | Favorite-Under (56) |
| LII | 2018 | Minneapolis, MN | Philadelphia (+4) 41 vs. New England 33 | Underdog-Over (49) |
| LI | 2017 | Houston, TX | New England (-3) 34 vs. Atlanta 28 (OT) | Favorite-Over (57) |
| L | 2016 | Santa Clara, CA | Denver (+5) 24 vs. Carolina 10 | Underdog-Under (43.5) |
| XLIX | 2015 | Glendale, AZ | New England (Pick ‘em) 28 vs. Seattle 24 | Over (47.5) |
| XLVIII | 2014 | East Rutherford, NJ | Seattle (+2.5) 43 vs. Denver 8 | Underdog-Over (47.5) |
| XLVII | 2013 | New Orleans, LA | Baltimore (+4.5) 34 vs. San Francisco 31 | Underdog-Over (48) |
| XLVI | 2012 | Indianapolis, IN | N.Y. Giants (+2.5) 21 vs. New England 17 | Underdog-Under (53) |
| XLV | 2011 | Arlington, TX | Green Bay (-3) 31 vs. Pittsburgh 25 | Favorite-Over (45) |
| XLIV | 2010 | Miami, FL | New Orleans (+5) 31 vs. Indianapolis 17 | Underdog-Under (57) |
As you can see, five of the six overs that hit had a total of fewer than 50 points. The most recent over, however, was over by a lot when the Eagles and Patriots combined for 74 points in 2018. In 2019, the Patriots and Rams fell a full 40 points shy of their target of 56, while the Chiefs and 49ers fell just under 53 with 51 total points last season. Five of these Super Bowls featured Tom Brady, who is perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time, but Brady also often utilized a short passing game while relying on excellent defenses to do their jobs. That strategy favored the under in those games.
Heading into 2019, the over had cashed in on five of the last six Super Bowls, and the under hitting in the last two years has more to do with lackluster 49ers and Rams teams and performances than any kind of trend. A Mahomes vs. Brady matchup with two of the leagues premier offenses is much more likely to result in consistent points, which is why the over is one of the highest of all time.
Also worth noting is that there will not be a full stadium for the Super Bowl, though the NFL is still planning to have roughly 22,000 people in the stands. Still, fewer people means less crowd noise, which typically favors the offense. And these are already two of the best offenses in the NFL, so they don’t need any extra advantages. The line for this over/under is already down a full point after being listed as 57.5 last week, and it’ll probably settle at around 56 or 56.5 after being listed as 56 when these two teams met back in Week 12.
Check out all of our Super Bowl LV sports betting coverage >>
Recent Kansas City Chiefs Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2nd and 3rd in Total Offensive DVOA, respectively. Let’s take a look at the trends in Kansas City’s totals throughout the 2020 season.
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KC
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OPPONENT | SCORE | TOTAL SCORE | SPREAD | SPREAD WIN | O/U LINE | O/U WIN | MONEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | HOU | W 34-20 | 54 | -9.5 | WIN | 53.5 | OVER | KC -435 |
| Week 2 | @LAC | W 23-20 | 43 | -8.5 | LOSS | 47 | UNDER | KC -385 |
| Week 3 | @BAL | W 34-20 | 54 | +3.5 | WIN | 55 | UNDER | KC +155 |
| Week 4 | NE | W 26-10 | 36 | -11.5 | WIN | 48.5 | UNDER | KC -700 |
| Week 5 | LV | L 32-40 | 72 | -10.5 | LOSS | 54.5 | OVER | KC -500 |
| Week 6 | @BUF | W 26-17 | 43 | -5.5 | WIN | 55 | UNDER | KC -241 |
| Week 7 | @DEN | W 43-16 | 59 | -7 | WIN | 46 | OVER | KC -340 |
| Week 8 | NYJ | W 35-9 | 44 | -19.5 | WIN | 49 | UNDER | KC -2500 |
| Week 9 | CAR | W 33-31 | 64 | -10 | LOSS | 51.5 | OVER | KC -500 |
| Week 11 | @LV | W 35-31 | 66 | -7.5 | LOSS | 56.5 | OVER | KC -375 |
| Week 12 | @TB | W 27-24 | 51 | -3.5 | LOSS | 56 | UNDER | KC -195 |
| Week 13 | DEN | W 22-16 | 38 | -12.5 | LOSS | 51.5 | UNDER | KC -1000 |
| Week 14 | @MIA | W 33-27 | 60 | -7 | LOSS | 51.5 | OVER | KC -345 |
| Week 15 | @NO | W 32-29 | 61 | -2.5 | WIN | 53.5 | OVER | KC -145 |
| Week 16 | ATL | W 17-14 | 31 | -11 | LOSS | 54 | UNDER | KC -530 |
| Week 17 | LAC | L 21-38 | 59 | +6.5 | LOSS | 43.5 | OVER | KC +245 |
| Week 2 | CLE | W 22-17 | 39 | -8 | LOSS | 56 | UNDER | KC -385 |
| Week 3 | BUF | W 38-24 | 62 | -3 | WIN | 54.5 | OVER | KC -155 |
Not only have the Chiefs hit the over in four of their last six games, but they have easily surpassed 56.5 points in all four of those contests. In fact, the Chiefs have combined to score 59 or more points in eight of their last 14 contests dating back to Week 5. So while that 56.5 number is close to a record for a Super Bowl over/under, it’s a number that the Chiefs surpass with regularity.
Recent Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends
Unsurprisingly, the Buccaneers looked like a different team with Tom Brady under center this season. After an up-and-down and inconsistent 2019, Brady brought stability to the team and specifically to the offense in 2020. Here is a quick snapshot of Tampa Bay’s scoring trends in 2020:
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TB
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OPPONENT | SCORE | TOTAL SCORE | SPREAD | SPREAD WIN | O/U LINE | O/U WIN | MONEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @NO | L 23-34 | 57 | +4 | LOSS | 48 | OVER | TB +155 |
| Week 2 | CAR | W 31-17 | 48 | -7.5 | WIN | 47 | OVER | TB -360 |
| Week 3 | @DEN | W 28-10 | 38 | -6 | WIN | 42.5 | UNDER | TB -267 |
| Week 4 | LAC | W 38-31 | 69 | -7.5 | LOSS | 42.5 | OVER | TB -367 |
| Week 5 | @CHI | L 19-20 | 39 | -3.5 | LOSS | 44 | UNDER | TB -200 |
| Week 6 | GB | W 38-10 | 48 | +2.5 | WIN | 54.5 | UNDER | TB +125 |
| Week 7 | @LV | W 45-20 | 65 | -4 | WIN | 51.5 | OVER | TB -210 |
| Week 8 | @NYG | W 25-23 | 48 | -12.5 | LOSS | 47 | OVER | TB -545 |
| Week 9 | NO | L 3-38 | 41 | -3 | LOSS | 50.5 | UNDER | TB -173 |
| Week 10 | @CAR | W 46-23 | 69 | -6 | WIN | 49.5 | OVER | TB -278 |
| Week 11 | LAR | L 24-27 | 51 | -4 | LOSS | 47.5 | OVER | TB -213 |
| Week 12 | KC | L 24-27 | 51 | +3.5 | WIN | 56 | UNDER | TB +155 |
| Week 14 | MIN | W 26-14 | 40 | -6.5 | WIN | 52.5 | UNDER | TB -315 |
| Week 15 | @ATL | W 31-27 | 58 | -6 | LOSS | 49.5 | OVER | TB -295 |
| Week 16 | @DET | W 47-7 | 54 | -12 | WIN | 55.5 | UNDER | TB -670 |
| Week 17 | ATL | W 44-27 | 71 | -7 | WIN | 50.5 | OVER | TB -345 |
| Week 1 | @WAS | W 31-23 | 54 | -10 | LOSS | 44.5 | OVER | TB -500 |
| Week 2 | @NO | W 30-20 | 50 | +2.5 | WIN | 52.5 | UNDER | TB +121 |
| Week 3 | @GB | W 31-26 | 57 | +3 | WIN | 53 | OVER | TB +155 |
As you can see, the Buccaneers have hit the over in their games 11 times this season. In seven of those games, they have scored 57 or more points. They have also hit the over in four of their last six games, just like Kansas City has. And while it isn’t quite 56.5 points, the Buccaneers have combined to score at least 50 points in eight of their last nine games, which is a very interesting trend that points to the over hitting in this one.
With these two offenses and the recent trends favoring the offense, bet the over in this one as long as it stays at 57 or under.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.