The Case for the Under to Hit in Super Bowl LV
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest gambling events of the year, and people bet on everything from the coin toss to every score change to whether or not there will be a missed extra point to the yardage of the longest accepted penalty. Super Bowl pools are common at nearly every bar and office space, and articles and television spots are dedicated just to prop bets that are available.
Earlier this week, we published The Case for the Over to Hit in Super Bowl LV. Now, it’s time to take a look at both teams, the important numbers, and all of the recent Super Bowl trends that indicate the under is going to hit.
Here’s why betting the under is the right play for Super Bowl LV.
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Game Odds
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KC
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-3
-122
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o56.5
-110
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-174
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
TB
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+3
EVEN
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u56.5
-110
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+146
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Recent Super Bowl Trends
The under has hit in two straight and three of the last five Super Bowls, with the 2019 Super Bowl being a particular dud that finished with 16 total points despite an over/under that settled at 56. The current number of 56.5 for Super Bowl LV is the second-highest ever, with only 2017’s and 2010’s 57 higher, and that over only hit because the Falcons choked in the second half and the game went into overtime. Only two of the last seven Super Bowls finished with 57 total points or more, with these as the last seven totals: 51, 16, 74, 62, 34, 52, 51.
| Super Bowl | Year | Location | Matchup | ATS Result |
| LV | 2021 | Tampa, FL | Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay | – |
| LIV | 2020 | Miami, FL | Kansas City (-1.5) 31 vs. San Francisco 20 | Favorite-Under (53) |
| LIII | 2019 | Atlanta, GA | New England (-2.5) 13 vs. L.A. Rams 3 | Favorite-Under (56) |
| LII | 2018 | Minneapolis, MN | Philadelphia (+4) 41 vs. New England 33 | Underdog-Over (49) |
| LI | 2017 | Houston, TX | New England (-3) 34 vs. Atlanta 28 (OT) | Favorite-Over (57) |
| L | 2016 | Santa Clara, CA | Denver (+5) 24 vs. Carolina 10 | Underdog-Under (43.5) |
| XLIX | 2015 | Glendale, AZ | New England (Pick ‘em) 28 vs. Seattle 24 | Over (47.5) |
| XLVIII | 2014 | East Rutherford, NJ | Seattle (+2.5) 43 vs. Denver 8 | Underdog-Over (47.5) |
| XLVII | 2013 | New Orleans, LA | Baltimore (+4.5) 34 vs. San Francisco 31 | Underdog-Over (48) |
| XLVI | 2012 | Indianapolis, IN | N.Y. Giants (+2.5) 21 vs. New England 17 | Underdog-Under (53) |
| XLV | 2011 | Arlington, TX | Green Bay (-3) 31 vs. Pittsburgh 25 | Favorite-Over (45) |
| XLIV | 2010 | Miami, FL | New Orleans (+5) 31 vs. Indianapolis 17 | Underdog-Under (57) |
The trend in the NFL over the last decade has been more offense. However, the over/under lines have obviously adjusted for that trend. Look at the results above. Of the 11 games, five of them had an over/under of over 50 points. Four of those five games cashed the under, and the lone one to hit the over was a record-setting 57 that only hit because of a historical second-half collapse that resulted in overtime.
Recent Kansas City Chiefs Trends
The Chiefs and Buccaneers are 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in offensive DVOA, which would seem to favor offense and the over for Super Bowl LV. However, the Bucs also possess a Top-5 defensive DVOA number, while the Chiefs have held two of their last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. Consider these recent trends for the Chiefs:
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KC
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OPPONENT | SCORE | TOTAL SCORE | SPREAD | SPREAD WIN | O/U LINE | O/U WIN | MONEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | HOU | W 34-20 | 54 | -9.5 | WIN | 53.5 | OVER | KC -435 |
| Week 2 | @LAC | W 23-20 | 43 | -8.5 | LOSS | 47 | UNDER | KC -385 |
| Week 3 | @BAL | W 34-20 | 54 | +3.5 | WIN | 55 | UNDER | KC +155 |
| Week 4 | NE | W 26-10 | 36 | -11.5 | WIN | 48.5 | UNDER | KC -700 |
| Week 5 | LV | L 32-40 | 72 | -10.5 | LOSS | 54.5 | OVER | KC -500 |
| Week 6 | @BUF | W 26-17 | 43 | -5.5 | WIN | 55 | UNDER | KC -241 |
| Week 7 | @DEN | W 43-16 | 59 | -7 | WIN | 46 | OVER | KC -340 |
| Week 8 | NYJ | W 35-9 | 44 | -19.5 | WIN | 49 | UNDER | KC -2500 |
| Week 9 | CAR | W 33-31 | 64 | -10 | LOSS | 51.5 | OVER | KC -500 |
| Week 11 | @LV | W 35-31 | 66 | -7.5 | LOSS | 56.5 | OVER | KC -375 |
| Week 12 | @TB | W 27-24 | 51 | -3.5 | LOSS | 56 | UNDER | KC -195 |
| Week 13 | DEN | W 22-16 | 38 | -12.5 | LOSS | 51.5 | UNDER | KC -1000 |
| Week 14 | @MIA | W 33-27 | 60 | -7 | LOSS | 51.5 | OVER | KC -345 |
| Week 15 | @NO | W 32-29 | 61 | -2.5 | WIN | 53.5 | OVER | KC -145 |
| Week 16 | ATL | W 17-14 | 31 | -11 | LOSS | 54 | UNDER | KC -530 |
| Week 17 | LAC | L 21-38 | 59 | +6.5 | LOSS | 43.5 | OVER | KC +245 |
| Week 2 | CLE | W 22-17 | 39 | -8 | LOSS | 56 | UNDER | KC -385 |
| Week 3 | BUF | W 38-24 | 62 | -3 | WIN | 54.5 | OVER | KC -155 |
The under has hit in two of Kansas City’s last four and four of their last eight games. Their prolific offense typically pushes their over/under number above 50 points, but they have managed to stay under 40 total points in three of these contests. The Kansas City defense has held their opponent under 30 points in seven of their last eight games despite that high-powered offense that often makes things easy, and the only over-30 contest was a mostly-meaningless Week 17 loss to the Chargers.
Check out all of our Super Bowl LV sports betting coverage >>
Recent Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends
As mentioned above, the Buccaneers have a Top-5 defense according to DVOA. Even with Tom Brady completely changing the offense in Tampa Bay, they still regularly hit the under. Their defense is a big reason for that, but so is the kind of offense that Brady likes to run. Here is a snapshot of their results in 2020:
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TB
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OPPONENT | SCORE | TOTAL SCORE | SPREAD | SPREAD WIN | O/U LINE | O/U WIN | MONEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @NO | L 23-34 | 57 | +4 | LOSS | 48 | OVER | TB +155 |
| Week 2 | CAR | W 31-17 | 48 | -7.5 | WIN | 47 | OVER | TB -360 |
| Week 3 | @DEN | W 28-10 | 38 | -6 | WIN | 42.5 | UNDER | TB -267 |
| Week 4 | LAC | W 38-31 | 69 | -7.5 | LOSS | 42.5 | OVER | TB -367 |
| Week 5 | @CHI | L 19-20 | 39 | -3.5 | LOSS | 44 | UNDER | TB -200 |
| Week 6 | GB | W 38-10 | 48 | +2.5 | WIN | 54.5 | UNDER | TB +125 |
| Week 7 | @LV | W 45-20 | 65 | -4 | WIN | 51.5 | OVER | TB -210 |
| Week 8 | @NYG | W 25-23 | 48 | -12.5 | LOSS | 47 | OVER | TB -545 |
| Week 9 | NO | L 3-38 | 41 | -3 | LOSS | 50.5 | UNDER | TB -173 |
| Week 10 | @CAR | W 46-23 | 69 | -6 | WIN | 49.5 | OVER | TB -278 |
| Week 11 | LAR | L 24-27 | 51 | -4 | LOSS | 47.5 | OVER | TB -213 |
| Week 12 | KC | L 24-27 | 51 | +3.5 | WIN | 56 | UNDER | TB +155 |
| Week 14 | MIN | W 26-14 | 40 | -6.5 | WIN | 52.5 | UNDER | TB -315 |
| Week 15 | @ATL | W 31-27 | 58 | -6 | LOSS | 49.5 | OVER | TB -295 |
| Week 16 | @DET | W 47-7 | 54 | -12 | WIN | 55.5 | UNDER | TB -670 |
| Week 17 | ATL | W 44-27 | 71 | -7 | WIN | 50.5 | OVER | TB -345 |
| Week 1 | @WAS | W 31-23 | 54 | -10 | LOSS | 44.5 | OVER | TB -500 |
| Week 2 | @NO | W 30-20 | 50 | +2.5 | WIN | 52.5 | UNDER | TB +121 |
| Week 3 | @GB | W 31-26 | 57 | +3 | WIN | 53 | OVER | TB +155 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their opponents scored fewer than 56 total points in 12 of their 19 games this season, hitting the under in eight of those contests. The current line of 56.5 for the Super Bowl is the highest over/under they have seen this season, with the closest match being the 56 that was placed on their Week 12 matchup with this same Chiefs squad. The Bucs and Chiefs combined for 51 total points in that game, cashing the under. The Buccaneers have combined to score more than 56 points in just three of their last nine games, helping to set the stage for the under.
These two teams have better defenses than what they are given credit for, and those defenses combined with somewhat cautious approaches to begin the game will likely result in the under. 2017 was the only time in Super Bowl history that the over hit for an over/under set higher than 56, and the bet here is that these two defenses will do enough to keep this game under control.
Bet the under, friends.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.