The Farmers Insurance Open Betting Guide (PGA)
Si-Woo Kim (60/1) was able to stave off a course record round of 61 by Patrick Cantlay on the final day of the American Express to win his third career PGA title. Playing some very aggressive golf, Kim shot eight-under-par to finish the week at 23-under and win the tournament by a stroke. Featured in last week’s article, Tony Finau shared the lead heading into the final round but couldn’t get the job done.
The West Coast swing continues as the Tour will now head to San Diego, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open. Played at the illustrious Torrey Pines Golf Course, golfers will play on two different tracks. The South course is a beast of design and consistently ranks as one of the toughest to score on. Golfers will hope to do some scoring on the North course to set themselves up in a good position for the weekend.
A star-studded field will tee it up this week in California. Jon Rahm (+650), Rory McIlroy (+700), Xander Schauffele (+1200), and Tony Finau (+2000) are the early betting favorites. Defending champion, Marc Leishman, is back in the field in hopes of a repeat. Conditions are expected to be rainy and windy, which will only help the courses play even longer than it already is.
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Previous Winners
- 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
- 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
- 2018: Jason Day (-9)
- 2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
- 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-16)
Course Preview
As mentioned above, this week’s tournament will be played at Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North. The south course is the longest golfers on the PGA Tour will play all season. It measures over 7,700 yards-long and will play as a Par 72. The greens on the south course are Poa annua, and because of the length, it will play much more difficult than the north course. Distance off the tee will help quite a bit this week, with many of the Par 5s only reachable by the longest of hitters.
Torrey Pines North measures at 7,258 yards long and plays as a par 72. It is a much easier test of golf for the pros, as it ranked 33 out of 41 in course difficulty last year on Tour. This course will feature much larger greens and shorter holes than the south track. The other difference is that the north course will have Bentgrass greens. Accuracy off the tee is key here, and longer irons will be crucial as seven of the eight par 3s measure over 200 yards.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green
- Strokes Gained: Approach (>200 yards)
- Bogey Avoidance
Outright Betting Picks
Rory McIlroy (+1000 on BETMGM)
Fresh off a third-place finish in Abu Dhabi, McIlroy should be in fine form to go low this week in California. With scoring conditions expected to be difficult because of rain and wind, McIlroy’s distance off the tee should really pay dividends. In 2020, the Englishman ranked fourth in driving distance, sixth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 18th in strokes gained: approach. With back-to-back top-5 finishes at the event (T3 in 2020, T5 in 2019), it’s clear McIlroy has the ideal skill-set to win.
Matthew Wolff (+4100 on BETMGM)
The young 21-year-old star already has a win on Tour and is playing with plenty of confidence. Ninth in driving distance this year, his strong off the tee game should be advantageous for him at the South Course. What has impressed me the most is his approach game this year. He currently ranks 7th on Tour in strokes gained: approach this season. Very good with his long irons, Wolff should be one of the few players who will be able to reach some of the longer Par 5s on the scorecard.
Longshot Betting Picks
Gary Woodland (+5100 on BetMGM)
One of the better ball-strikers on Tour, Woodland has an elite combination of driving distance and accuracy. He has some high finishes at Torrey Pines in the past (T9 in 2019, T12 in 2018). Woodland showed last week at the American Express that he is feeling good and in fine form. He cruised to a T16 finish, including two rounds of 68.
Max Homa (+10100 on BetMGM)
Homa was near the top of the leaderboard heading into the final day of the American Express but had a rough final day. I’m not too concerned. He has been playing some fantastic golf. The 30-year-old has two straight top-25 finishes and goes to an event he placed T9 at in 2020. Homa is long off the tee and ranks high with his proximity on approaches greater than 200 yards. He’s worth a flier here.
Other Betting Picks
Marc Leishman – Top-10 Finish (+500 on BETMGM)
The defending champion of the event heads into San Diego in some excellent form. The Aussie has two consecutive top-25s to begin 2021, including a T4 at the Sony Open. He has no problem playing in rainy, windy conditions, as he was accustomed to this weather in Australia.
Doug Ghim – Top-20 Finish (+550 on BETMGM)
Ghim continues to play some phenomenal golf in the new season. The University of Texas star has five top-25s in eight events in 2020-21. Fresh off of a T5 finish at the American Express, Ghim will be accustomed to the California climate and should be comfortable at Torrey Pines. The 24-year-old ranks 19th in strokes gained: approach.
Event Plays
- Top Canadian – Corey Conners (+215 on BetMGM)
- Top Scot – Russel Knox (+167 on BetMGM)
- Tony Finau over Harris English (+175 on BetMGM)
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.